5/10/10 FCST: TX / OK / KS / CO/ MO

[David Rundle]

Just a quick request for all those chasing today: If the V2 armada is on the move, please let them go unhindered. If they can nail the big game today, it's a victory for us all.

Otherwise, please stay safe, drive carefully, and go big!

 

[Chip Redmond]

Decided last night not to trek out west for this setup because of the fast storm movements and terrain. Would be better off in OH! Ha.

It has been pushed westward more but, to me the most entertaining region would be more NW towards the low. As the stable cloud layer erodes and things warm up, and the dp approaches the 60s things should fire nicely ahead of the dryline/cf. The storms have ample shear to work with along with a vort max in the NW corner of the state. Hodo's there support discrete cells with backing winds keeping it from going linear until later. Also the first storms to go up should occur in this vicinity. SPC is starting to see increased threat in that direction but I would still start out farther, around the Oakley area.

Another scenario for the main targeted region would be, to much instability? I suppose the strong shear would allow for long lived updrafts but still something about 4000+ cape bothers me in central OK. Should be interesting. I'll be sitting back and watching this from the comfort of three computers.


Chip

 

[Chris Campbell]

I would also add that if you are not using a private source for your radar source such as Allison House, Weathertap, or any of the other paid solutions delays in radar data can be expected as many found out during the Arkansas outbreak. Don't rely on the radar data if you are going to core punch!!

Not only that, but keep in mind that it's very possible even with private data, that an influx of heavy users could overwhelm cell sites. Backhaul is often limited unless they're fiber-fed, and even then, wireless bandwidth is only so much.

The other thing is that your data is never live, and with today's quick storm motion, that becomes more of an issue.

Depending on computer data today for your safety will be a risky move. Stay safe out there!

 

[Jason Bolt]

in response to Jeff: the other poster was right, I am not questioning the rating at all. Actually I'm not saying anything I didn't say yesterday. Even then I felt the better play would stay farther west along I35 & further west even when the models started trending further east. I realize SPC must cover all hazards, I am only referencing "chaseable" storms. Actually this set up leaves me torn. I'm sure I'm not the only chaser who feels a little sick about leaving home to chase the better chasing setup with a chance of devastating weather hitting the homestead. I actually prefer a setup with my family, homestead, and animals in the clear. Make sense? It still seems to me the bulk of the high risk in SE KS & SW OK with part of NE OK faces mainly a gorilla hail & high wind threat near dark. Photogenic opportunities seem more like from ICT to OKC to Enid & even DDC.

 

[Michael Riedl]

in response to Jeff: the other poster was right, I am not questioning the rating at all. Actually I'm not saying anything I didn't say yesterday. Even then I felt the better play would stay farther west along I35 & further west even when the models started trending further east. I realize SPC must cover all hazards, I am only referencing "chaseable" storms. Actually this set up leaves me torn. I'm sure I'm not the only chaser who feels a little sick about leaving home to chase the better chasing setup with a chance of devastating weather hitting the homestead. I actually prefer a setup with my family, homestead, and animals in the clear. Make sense? It still seems to me the bulk of the high risk in SE KS & SW OK with part of NE OK faces mainly a gorilla hail & high wind threat near dark. Photogenic opportunities seem more like from ICT to OKC to Enid & even DDC.

I agree. While the more violent tornadoes and widespread severe weather might happen in Eastern OK. I would take my chances in an area better road and better terrain. Kind of like the "diamond in the rough" scenario discussed earlier.

 

[Jay McCoy]

Dryline is pushing east rapidly away from Amarillo. Our DP has dropped 45 degress in a few hrs and we now have wind gusts of around 60mph with heavy brown dirt in the air. Almost looks like an eclipse from the sun being blocked out. We arent having to deal with tornados but I can promise we will have a few out of control wildfires today to keep us hoping.

I am stuck at work until 4pm so I am out of the game but if I could I would also play along I-40 and south not only to avoid the chase circus that will definitely ensue but I like the idea of something more isolated since they are going to be screamin along anyway. Lets just hope we all can see a good show without anybody being killed and very limited property damage. We have had enough towns torn up this year already.

 

[Zack Phillips]

I-35 looks like a parking lot.

http://antcam.f5chaser.com/jsantcam.html

There's been some posts about data coverage. For those of you chasing along the ks/ok border east of I-35 using AT&T, coverage is sketchy at best east of Arkansas City.

Going to play the ICT-Kingman-Newton-El Dorado area in hopes of avoiding the crowds. Looks like our first warning was just issued out in western KS. Good luck today everyone.