5/10/10 FCST: TX / OK / KS / CO/ MO

[Andrew Burnett]

I too am targeting Enid as a starting point. East of Enid there is a more primed environment, but I want to sit in the sun for surface heating and keep an eye on the moisture convection in case I need to head South. Hoping to stay north of the KS border since the road network E of Ponca City does not look great (anyone have any comments? I saw the one about slippery roads but is the network at least decent?).

Looks like it'll be a long day and some night chasing too. Stay safe (and stay out of my way!!)

Yeah.. I live in the area and if you want to go east out of Ponca there are no real great viewing options.. The reservation takes you back in time to the 50's, road wise. The best option road wise, if you want to stay in KS would be to stay on 166 and follow the storm track east until they cross. 166 offers some of the better views you will get in that area until you hit chetopa.

 

[Rebekah LaBar]

No need to rehash what's already been said...my blog post this morning contains my thoughts for the day.

I'm interested in how the NAM keeps wanting to hold back the dryline west of I-35...could mean we'll have storm forming in a better chasing area, though as has been said already, they'll quickly be booking it eastward.

I also like how the NAM (and now the RUC) is trending towards more backed surface winds in north central and northeastern Oklahoma...that was part of my initial concern, that winds wouldn't have much of an easterly component. Regardless, hodographs all over northern and eastern Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas look like they will be amazing.

My target area is Blackwell, Oklahoma...though I think storms may form west of there, I would like to stay ahead of them, if possible. We'll be leaving from Norman within the next hour.

I don't have the highest expectations for this day, as with the fast storm motions and less than stellar chase territory, I don't want to wind up too disappointed if I miss something. However, I'm just out there to see some storms and have a good day...and hopefully the day won't be dampened by a storm traveling through one of the cities up there.

Good luck to all, and stay safe!

 

[Russ Conlon]

Very interesting development in the NAM. 12Z NAM puts dryline in extreme western OK around Woodward stretching down to Elk City at 4 p.m. That's quite a deviation from the last run. At 7 p.m. it looks to be roughly just east of Highway 81 from east of Enid to Yukon extending SW just to the west of Chickasha. If SPC is leaning toward the NAM solution, I would have to believe the high risk area will have to be shifted back westward a bit. I certainly hope the NAM verifies. Will be interesting to see the 12Z run of the GFS.

 

[John Farley]

Very interesting development in the NAM. 12Z NAM puts dryline in extreme western OK around Woodward stretching down to Elk City at 4 p.m. That's quite a deviation from the last run. At 7 p.m. it looks to be roughly just east of Highway 81 from east of Enid to Yukon extending SW just to the west of Chickasha. If SPC is leaning toward the NAM solution, I would have to believe the high risk area will have to be shifted back westward a bit. I certainly hope the NAM verifies. Will be interesting to see the 12Z run of the GFS.

It appears the RUC is leaning this way too. It also has the dryline near Elk City at 21z. If this verifies, it would make sense to start out near or west of I-35 rather than east of it as I would have earlier thought. (As others have said, I think you want to be well east of where the storms initiate due to the rapid storm motion.) I decided last night to sit this one out due to the rapid storm motion, crowds, and poor chase terrain - but at least if these model trends hold, the terrain could be better than it looked like earlier.

 

[Jason Bolt]

sitting at home here where KS/OK/MO meet (can walk to the three state marker from my porch) right in the middle of the high risk. 52 with cold rain currently. Further south & west toward Tulsa or Ponca would be my play today. I think the grunge layer here has overdone it in the northeast part of the high risk. We would need to be cleared off by about 18z & I just don't have that confidence. highs here are only progged to make mid 60 & that may even be a stretch.

 

[Warren Faidley]

After looking st the latest NAM, we decided to revise our target to DDC.

W.

 

[Russ Conlon]

12Z GFS just came out and agrees with 12Z NAM run with 21Z position of dryline. Storm initiation looks to happen just east of Highway 81 now. Dewpoints have surged in the last couple of hours with dewpoints around low to mid 60s in western and central OK. I am really liking targeting and heading out to either Kingfisher or Guthrie in the next couple of hours. Quite happy because this is much better viewing and travel terrain.

 

[Andrew Burnett]

sitting at home here where KS/OK/MO meet (can walk to the three state marker from my porch) right in the middle of the high risk. 52 with cold rain currently. Further south & west toward Tulsa or Ponca would be my play today. I think the grunge layer here has overdone it in the northeast part of the high risk. We would need to be cleared off by about 18z & I just don't have that confidence. highs here are only progged to make mid 60 & that may even be a stretch.

I agree I am a little west and north of you and still thick cloud cover and cool.

RUC CAPE for 22z seems to be agreeing. Simply no energy here unless I am missing something.

IT does have a little bumping in towards dark, however.

 

[E Hale]

Before you get to worried about destabilization, take a quick look at what's happening currently. Dews in central/southern OK are a steady low to mid 60's and rising. Winds are howling out of the south with gusts over 30. The cloud deck is rapidly deteriorating from the Southwest and temps are already over 80 degrees in the far Southwest part of the state. This clearing and high temps should make it to near OKC by 2PM leading to rapid destabilizing of the atmosphere. This event is just getting started.

 

[Jeff Passner]

sitting at home here where KS/OK/MO meet (can walk to the three state marker from my porch) right in the middle of the high risk. 52 with cold rain currently. Further south & west toward Tulsa or Ponca would be my play today. I think the grunge layer here has overdone it in the northeast part of the high risk. We would need to be cleared off by about 18z & I just don't have that confidence. highs here are only progged to make mid 60 & that may even be a stretch.

The high risk does not just mean tornadoes. You can have 52 degrees and cold rain and still have hail the size of baseballs later, along with 60-70 mph winds. The low-level jet over your area is scary-strong at 0000-0600 UTC tonight. Any storm in that area can mix down damaging winds. You don't need strong tornadoes to have a "high risk" event. If there is widespread wind damage it's still severe weather. Plus, the higher dew points will surge into your area after dark. You might have a 60 dew point by 0200 UTC. I don't see any problem with a high risk for your area. You surely are not in the prime "chase" region for today, but later on you might get the wind, hail, and even isolated tornadoes.

 

[Andrew Burnett]

The high risk does not just mean tornadoes. You can have 52 degrees and cold rain and still have hail the size of baseballs later, along with 60-70 mph winds. The low-level jet over your area is scary-strong at 0000-0600 UTC tonight. Any storm in that area can mix down damaging winds. You don't need strong tornadoes to have a "high risk" event. If there is widespread wind damage it's still severe weather. Plus, the higher dew points will surge into your area after dark. You might have a 60 dew point by 0200 UTC. I don't see any problem with a high risk for your area. You surely are not in the prime "chase" region for today, but later on you might get the wind, hail, and even isolated tornadoes.

I think that's all he was saying... I didn't get the impression he was questioning the rating. That's certianly all I was saying by agreeing.

 

[Chris Sokol]

It's amazing how one can come full circle. After changing my mind several times over the last 12 hours, I am right back to my I-40/Hwy 81 interchange target. Should put me close to initiation, and leaves open numerous road options...and maybe yield a bit slower storm motions (yeah, it's grasping at straws, but one can hope).

Good luck, and stay safe folks.

 

[Eric Bucsela]

The 15Z Ruc is a definite improvement! Nose of the mid-level speed max is now back around interstate 35 on the KS/OK border at 00Z instead of nosing into MO. The surface features are also shifted west into better chase country. The cape is better and wraps around the dryline bulge in S Central KS, almost back to DDC. SPC is indicating this on their 1630 Day1

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Definitely an interesting forecast, even at this point. I can't get out of Norman til about 4 o'clock, so am currently going with two plans based upon how early initiation is.

Plan A assumes storms have not fired yet when I depart Norman. In this case, will go north on I-35, perhaps as far as Guthrie or Perry, with the intention of moving east immediately when initiation occurs, to get as far downstream as possible.

Plan B assumes storms are already developing or ongoing, in which case I would move northeast as quickly and safely as possible, and then try and sample storms from north to south as they move to the ENE.

There is not much need to rehash the details of the parameters which are in place. It is a truly dynamic setup, with very few negatives from a meteorological standpoint. The cap doesn't concern me at this point, and the only thing that worries me at all would be more veering in the 850s in central and southern Oklahoma. The big negative from a chaser's standpoint of course is the storm motions, which may be in excess of 50 knots.

I'm expecting to fail epically with this because of the racing storms, but am going to have a try at it anyway. Good luck to everyone out there and stay safe!

 

[Matthew Piechota]

Have a bad feeling in the stomach about today...Just did a full set of UA hand analysis and sfc. Impressive jet streak at 500mb. The NAM is holding the dryline back west of 35 where the RUC has it about on 35 at 0z.

Moisture is screaming northward with dew points rising quickly as the warm front is moving north with rapid clearing taking place in southwest OK with mid and upper 60's dew pionts as of 17z. CAPE values are already sky high in the area as well.

Like the area around LAW for a CI but would wait up around OKC for it to get up there.

These storms are going to be hauling with 1000 chasers out there trying to keep up with them, could create a dangerious situation. everyone stay safe out there.