5/10/10 FCST: TX / OK / KS / CO/ MO

[Ryan McGinnis]

I just keep looking at the storm motions (NAM bunkers has between 35 to 55(!) kts progged between 18Z and 0Z) -- you add that to the potential for an outbreak of strong long track tornadoes and not only do you have a pretty hairy situation for the public, but it makes for some tricky chasing especially with the likely congestion out there tomorrow.

I suggest the advice of Jack Handy: If you manage to intercept violent tornadoes passing you at 60 miles per hour, let 'em go, because man, they're gone.

 

[Chris Sokol]

The nice thing about this setup is now I can wait for initiation at my house.

A word of advice to those of you not familiar with the area. Do NOT use I-44 when actively chasing. Your exit options are very limited.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Of course, no sense in rehashing what others have said, but I just want to give a little update to my target area. I am definitely staying far away from the masses in NE OK and SE KS. I've looked at a few things in the past hour or so, and I think I may target North TX. The dryline may be a bit further west in this region, and the CAPE is forecast to be 4,000 plus. Maybe, just maybe the storms will be a bit slower than the storms closer to the better dynamics.

Storm speed, terrible chase terrain and chaser convergence is what will keep me away from the obvious area. Like some have posted on facebook, I don't think some chasers realize how difficult it's going to be with the above scenario. I'm definitely not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but I'm just going from my perspective. Some chasers are going to go home frustrated.

I have always liked finding the diamond in the rough on some chases, which for me is chasing down the dryline away from the better dynamics. I do have confidence that storms will form in north Texas, but I sure can't say that I'll see anything. The 4km WRF does break out precip south of Abilene, so I'm confident 1 or 2 big storms will form in the huge instability axis.

Call me crazy, but right now I'm targeting an area south of Wichita Falls in the city of Graham.

 

[Ryan Pfeifer]

I'll probably be looking for my diamond in the rough on the north side of things. Hoping I won't have to go too far south of the KS/NE border to snag a supercell. Not really bothering to assess the northern target until tomorrow morning, but in my model wanderings I did notice a lot of versions of the WRF seem to break out a supercell in northeastern KS. But these same models didn't break out any precip south of the KS/OK border.

 

[Jake Wallentine]

I just wanted to quickly note that it seems like both the NAM and especially GFS initialized the mid level low pressure centers just a smidge further South and East than what was observed at 0z. This may cause the setup to shift north and westward as we get closer to game time tomorrow afternoon/evening.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

I'm not seeing a whole lot of that early morning convection right now. Of to the east, sure, but there doesn't seem to be much left in today's target areas. I haven't really checked on that aspect of today's chase, mainly because I'm not even going to be able to leave Plano until almost 4:00 pm, but unless a lot more develops in the next several hours, it will be interesting to see what changes with this lack of early precip.

 

[Zac Green]

Jason, you've said exactly what I have been thinking all along. I keep looking at the models and the LIs, Cins, EHIs, and everything looks just as good for Texas. I have been surprised that virtually no one has talked about Texas yet. Its good for me if I can go somewhere here in Texas since its closer. I have been thinking about anywhere out west like Abilene, but also a little closer to home maybe to catch the storms after they fire in Decatur. It will be interesting to see if storms go up in Texas, and just how many, because I think they could be some pretty nasty ones.

 

[Brian Stertz]

RUC is favoring along and north of US 412 today ...with best inflow 0-1km at/above 50 kts. Shows the most vigorous convection between Bartlesville and Chanute but would also expect supercells moving in towards Tulsa around supper time. Very active and rapid change day ahead and one that bears close watching...good luck to the masses heading out today...and V2 as well...their first outbreak situ to sample.

 

[M Dillard]

NE OK can be very difficult terrain add storm motions upwards 50-60 mph and you could see some serious traffic jams. Areas to prepare for and work around if you can are: Osage County (large areas of county with poor or limited road network) US 60/OK 11 only real E-W option. Also avoid as previously stated I-44 with it's limited on/off ramps. Contrary to TX Panhandle or Western OK road network not the best as far as east-west be cautious as the storms can get by you and are impossible to catch making a 40 mile trip to get 10 miles ahead.
Also some of these small towns rollup the sidewalks at dusk and not all have gas options. Add to it if a town gets hit the road network could really back-up. Remember look out for the other guy and if you must pull over try to get all the way off on the shoulder or a driveway as some of these 2-lane state highways can easily become parking lots.

 

[Darren Stephens]

Good luck to all those who are going to be chasing in my backyard today. Only advise I can offer is to make sure your GPS has the most updated roads loaded into it. Be especially careful if you get onto one of these county roads as this black gumbo on most of these roads can get EXTREMELY slick when it gets wet. If your not chasing with a 4 wheel drive vehicle I would not even consider getting on one of these roads. Osage and Pawnee County looks like it could be a HOT spot later today. I would recommend planning in advance all your NE road options through these areas. Don't take what I am saying the wrong way...there are not more than a handful of roads that are available to get you through these areas and it gets worse the further east you go (east of I-44)

 

[Jason Haller]

Good luck to all those who are going to be chasing in my backyard today. Only advise I can offer is to make sure your GPS has the most updated roads loaded into it. Be especially careful if you get onto one of these county roads as this black gumbo on most of these roads can get EXTREMELY slick when it gets wet. If your not chasing with a 4 wheel drive vehicle I would not even consider getting on one of these roads. Osage and Pawnee County looks like it could be a HOT spot later today. I would recommend planning in advance all your NE road options through these areas. Don't take what I am saying the wrong way...there are not more than a handful of roads that are available to get you through these areas and it gets worse the further east you go (east of I-44)

I would also add that if you are not using a private source for your radar source such as Allison House, Weathertap, or any of the other paid solutions delays in radar data can be expected as many found out during the Arkansas outbreak. Don't rely on the radar data if you are going to core punch!!

 

[Jeff Smith]

I-44 construction!

Good luck to all those who are going to be chasing in my backyard today. Only advise I can offer is to make sure your GPS has the most updated roads loaded into it. Be especially careful if you get onto one of these county roads as this black gumbo on most of these roads can get EXTREMELY slick when it gets wet. If your not chasing with a 4 wheel drive vehicle I would not even consider getting on one of these roads. Osage and Pawnee County looks like it could be a HOT spot later today. I would recommend planning in advance all your NE road options through these areas. Don't take what I am saying the wrong way...there are not more than a handful of roads that are available to get you through these areas and it gets worse the further east you go (east of I-44)

Mods move this if you need but I feel that this is a relevant bit of info....I-44 in east Tulsa from 161st E Ave through 193rd E Ave Will be difficult to navigate due to construction, especially around rush hour. This could potentially spell disaster.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Mods move this if you need but I feel that this is a relevant bit of info....I-44 in east Tulsa from 161st E Ave through 193rd E Ave Will be difficult to navigate due to construction, especially around rush hour. This could potentially spell disaster.

I will second what Jeff said and also add that basically the entire city of Tulsa is under road construction right now. Navigating in and around Tulsa will be a nightmare, and you are best to either take the Creek Turnpike (around south side) or 412/244 (around north side). You definitely want to avoid I-44 altogether.

Looking at the latest RUC, I am becoming more optimistic. I do believe the warm sector will be broader than what the models have shown....especially more so with the lack of widespread convection in northeast OK this morning.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Target: Dighton KS. Lower topped tornadic supercells are likely to initiate on the nose of rapid moisture transport north of the surface low which, per RUC, looks to end up further south and west of where the other models had it the last few days. Initiation between 18z and 21z.

 

[Damon Lewis]

For those that come into Tulsa, please note that HWY 169 between HWY 244 and 56th street north is also under construction and is a nightmare during rush hour with very few options for exiting and bypassing traffic.

If you need a north/south highway from Tulsa to the north, I advise using highway HWY 75. If you must get on HWY 169, take HWY 75 north to 76th Street north then go east through Owasso to access HWY 169.