5/10/10 FCST: TX / OK / KS / CO/ MO

[Dal Archer]

With DP's already in the low to mid 50's in NE OK and approaching 65 DP's in central Texas, things are ripening quickly. I was hoping for more of a western show, (rather than something in my backyard) as chases in NE OK are difficult at best and with the way these things are rocketing along chasing will be extremely difficult.

I will be staying close to the area since I live right here, but for those of you targeting much further south and west I think that you may be on to something. I have a hunch that much more chaseable storms will fire off much further south and west than the high risk area.

However, since we plan to stay close to home, we plan to head out somewhere between Guthrie and Perry to start and then we'll see what happens from there. I am very concerned about such rapid storm motions, both from a safety and chasing standpoint.

I will also second what everyone is saying about Tulsa. Avoid it if you can as road construction is everywhere. Everyone be safe out there!

 

[James Aydelott]

The biggest meteorological problem with chasing today will be the fast storm motions. I'm expecting NE movement at 45-50mph.

This will wreak havoc with staying on storms. (It will also create worrisome warning problems)

aircraft soundings this morning show jet streak around the vort at 100+mph.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Jason, you've said exactly what I have been thinking all along. I keep looking at the models and the LIs, Cins, EHIs, and everything looks just as good for Texas. I have been surprised that virtually no one has talked about Texas yet. Its good for me if I can go somewhere here in Texas since its closer. I have been thinking about anywhere out west like Abilene, but also a little closer to home maybe to catch the storms after they fire in Decatur. It will be interesting to see if storms go up in Texas, and just how many, because I think they could be some pretty nasty ones.

Well, one parameter that is different is the deep layer shear: looks like 40-50 kts over north Texas, compared to 80-90 kts over the high risk area.

The RUC runs this morning are still pointing to the Enid target, early on at least. I really like to follow where the nose of the theta-e axis is pointing towards, especially the "day of", although positioning well downstream is probably a good idea as several have mentioned.

 

[Russ Conlon]

Talk about getting a cold shower this morning looking at the models. These storm motions are going to be a little too fast for my liking. No need to talk about the ugly terrain in NE Oklahoma. GFS seems to be forecasting a somewhat weaker CAP from 18-21Z in W Oklahoma but I'm not going to put too much hope in that. I think I'll sit this one out and hope for Wednesday. Shawnee to Tulsa, OK looks to really get hit hard today. I wouldn't want to be on the Tulsa highways around rush hour. That could just be flat out ugly.

 

[Paul Knightley]

I have to say, looking at the latest models, Enid looks to be pretty primed for action. Latest RUC shows everything seemingly coming together around that area by 21Z - dry-line bulge, backed surface flow, tongue of mid-high 60s dps. With the high storm motion in mind, I would want to be in front of anything developing, so with that in mind I'm still keen on the I-35 corridor...set-up around Blackwell-Tonkawa and take it from there, and perhaps head westwards, depending on how the obs pan out early-mid afternoon.

I'll be watching from England tonight, but very closely - we're arriving in a week's time.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Fast storm motion and a rapidly moving CF (emphasis on the "C") make today a typical high risk disappointer. Not that there won't be supercells/tornadoes, because I think there will be. But it's going to be a "lucky break" day for a few chasers who happen to be sitting in the right place (downstream from initiation) as the storms blow through. I would be more tempted to play the cold core scenario today, simply to avoid data (and road) blockages in overly-dense chaser zones, but the storm motions to the north and west of the low aren't much more appealing. If I were going for the high risk target, I'd personally want to stay east of Enid/ICT by at least 30-40 miles. Tulsa is even more tempting, just because you're still guaranteed daylight as the storms move through, and you have plenty of time to position in front of them.

I'll probably go for the warm sector, but stay well to the north of the hotspots, closer to the low. If I see something - great, but I'm not getting my hopes up. Been here before.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

The misty north-of-the-warmfront fogfest here in Oklahoma target area is not encouraging, though I'm pretty sure the atmosphere will recover in plenty of time. Was talking to another chaser this morning and I like his idea of starting north and setting up lawn chairs progressively south through the day to catch new storms as they race by.

 

[cstrunk]

I'm really not liking the idea of 50+ MPH storm motions in the high risk area. Especially since the road network/terrain gets crappy as the storms head east. Really wishing that this whole setup could move about 100 miles W/NW... but it is what it is.

One thing is for sure, the dynamics of the system are incredible. Even as I'm sitting at home in SW IA, we are experiencing very strong winds from the SE already. I don't see a problem with moisture getting to the risk area.

The main problem I see becoming a potential issue will be cloud cover related to very high moisture transport limiting instability. We'll have to keep an eye on this to see to what extent clouds are able to burn off around the dryline and how wide this instability axis is able to get.

My chase partner is unable to depart from NW Missouri until around 12:30 PM, so we will have a late start. Planning on taking the turnpike towards Wichita and evaluate how things are evolving while on the road. Storms may already be firing before we get to Wichita, so I think we'll just try to position ourselves downstream and hope for the best as the storms come flying E/NE.

 

[David Wolfson]

To my amateur eye, late today looks like a prime derecho setup in the current SPC high risk area, with a tight, linear Theta-e gradient and mid-level dry air blasting in from the west. If so, this would favor bow-echo type supercells with shorter-lived tornadoes at the apexes of the bowing elements. Again if so, only later after the crazy vertical shear diminishes a bit around and after dark would I expect to see any long-track tornadoes in the northeastern portions of the risk areas. Be careful, all! FWIW, IMO.

 

[Andrew Burnett]

Looking at the current 24z RUC for CAPE... the energy just isn't there once you get past a line from Tulsa to ICT. Maybe the later run will show the energy moving?

 

[Scott Udell]

A reminder for anyone coming down I-35 through Kansas City: there is bridge construction over the Missouri (or is it the Kansas?) River where I-35 crosses it, so there can be delays there, especially during the rush hours (although in the afternoon that's more likely in the northbound lanes than the southbound). Mid-day shouldn't be too bad.

 

[matt patterson]

Looking at the current 24z RUC for CAPE... the energy just isn't there once you get past a line from Tulsa to ICT. Maybe the later run will show the energy moving?

Not sure what you are seeing.. This is an image of the 13z RUC for Cape at about 8pm tonight.. It has the instability axis to the East of Tulsa with over 3000 CAPE.. This actually is an improvement from what we were seeing last night. Hopefully the storms dont out run the corridor of instability and if this verifys, then they shouldnt.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/weather/model/ruc12hr_sfc_cape.gif

 

[Eddie Natenberg]

Eveyone please be safe today. I think there will be a lot of upscale growth in N OK especially with such strong DCVA and dry ML layer, on outbreak days I like to see the the lower part of this layer better mixed from upstream convection. I am going to hedge farther south with the deeper BL mixing/ moisture and possible surface baroclinic zones that set up due to this mornings differential heating. I am very impressed with the RUC destablization of the warm sector and strong ML lapse rates. Right now its the question of the right balance of forcing for such high storm motions with will effects the amount of mass entering the updrafts in the inflow layer, may cause very strong convergence and low level forcing.

Overall I say isolated tornadoes with sig wind event in S KS/N OK. And a nice isolated sucker in EC. OK that I could imagine could be the "main show". Target: Prague, OK.

And thats my best random guess.

 

[Andrew Burnett]

Not sure what you are seeing.. This is an image of the 13z RUC for Cape at about 8pm tonight.. It has the instability axis to the East of Tulsa with over 3000 CAPE.. This actually is an improvement from what we were seeing last night. Hopefully the storms dont out run the corridor of instability and if this verifys, then they shouldnt.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/weather/model/ruc12hr_sfc_cape.gif

Thanks for the feedback... I was looking at this: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...nding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

 

[David Mayhew]

I too am targeting Enid as a starting point. East of Enid there is a more primed environment, but I want to sit in the sun for surface heating and keep an eye on the moisture convection in case I need to head South. Hoping to stay north of the KS border since the road network E of Ponca City does not look great (anyone have any comments? I saw the one about slippery roads but is the network at least decent?).

Looks like it'll be a long day and some night chasing too. Stay safe (and stay out of my way!!)