5/10/10 FCST: TX / OK / KS / CO/ MO

[Andrew Stoller]

I hope that verifies Jason - the new Euro and GFS have sped the system up and somewhat de-amplified it (especially the ECM).

Even if the system does speed up somewhat, the parameters are still textbook for a major severe weather outbreak. Things will just be a bit further east and south.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

One thing for those closer to the triple point to think about will probably be just how cold the air is north of the warm front. Just a very cold air mass plunging south right now with upper 20s and lower 30s in western NE right now and that is with wind. There's more plunging of that air to go yet. 6z NAM showing signs of the issue with widespread 40s across KS at 1pm Monday. From past experience if that happens, I sure won't be anywhere near that front.

Perhaps the system will bump it out of the way nicely and it won't matter. Currently arguing to me to stay away from the triple point. GFS even shows a rather sharp front with cold temps nearby. 50s on the other side of the front, ok maybe I'd still bite, but 40s eh think I'll go to the dryline play.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Very valid points Mike. Have seen it quite often with such strong advection that major tornadoes have happened in the 60-65 temp. zone where the cap was not a factor and forcing was strong. (Brady NE comes to mind) Maybe this is the event such as that. Time will tell.

 

[Jason Haller]

Another thing that will make Monday interesting is that the night before thunderstorms are going to light up in Northeast Kansas and I think a few will be severe. When these storms die off they should lay down a few good outflow boundaries. This will create a huge dynamic with the already great setup and would not be surprised to see a few supercells to fire well east of the dryline along these. I am getting a little too excited for this setup I think but has the SPC ever issued a high risk on the day 3 outlook? Seen Mod risk but never high risk.

 

[Stephen Jones]

This is setting up to be a very interesting setup. Based on latest models, The setup of severe weather will appear to be further east along the I-35 corridor, and it also looks like Cape will be 3000+ and the cap should be eroded in N OK and S KS by 6pm. This could get scary with now OKC area within the possibility of very violent strong tornadoes given the strong shear in place.

I think SPC should stay with slight on Day 3 and then go with Moderate on Day 2. Thats just my point of view. NAM is gonna be to see interesting at 12Z.

 

[Brandon Jenkins]

After looking at the 18z NAM for Monday I am in agreement with Jason that the models will probably trend towards a slower eastward progression and bring the target area further to the west near the TX/OK border. Slower eastward progression will probably put the OKC metro under the gun sometime shortly after dark, but again, everything at this point is speculation. I won't rehash what everyone else as already stated, but hopefully this will be my first opportunity to get out this season after the birth of my daughter last month. I've been able to contain myself thus far this season but this setup looks far too promising to pass up.

 

[BrandonWhittington]

I agree with others on the eastward pregression of the dryline. Looks like the dryline should mix east rapidly during the day on Monday and sweep across the panhandles, and stall right on the border of Oklahoma and Texas. Based on the way models have been handling drylines this year, almost every setup, the dryline has been about 50-70 miles further west than models aticipate. This being said, and given the depth and quality of moisture, if I were to have to pick a target today, I would be saying from Gage to Woodward, OK.. But again, this is still days away,,,

 

[Rob H]

The 12z NAM just brought Monday into range... and the dryline is further west as others have guessed. There is a slight bulge towards Childress, but otherwise it's right down the middle of the panhandle at 7pm. There are speckles of ~4000 CAPE at 4pm in the TX panhandle, and 0-3km EHI is 11-12 in an area roughly from Mangum to Perryton at 7pm. This could be a very interesting day...

 

[David Goines]

I'm loving this setup as long as the DL doesn't end up in western OK instead on the TX panhandle. I would like to keep the storms out of the NW OK data blackhole...

 

[Eric Bucsela]

The 12z NAM also shows a very hefty cap over almost the entire warm sector - but forcing will be strong, so if storms do go, I'd think they would tend to be isolated.

I would like to keep the storms out of the NW OK data blackhole...

I'd also like to keep storms out of the TX Canadian River road blackhole!

BTW, just noticed that the ECMWF has sped up quite a bit since its last couple runs - more in line now with the faster GFS. I'm sure some sort of compromise will be worked out with the slower NAM, but I can think of at least one or two recent days this season when the NAM has eventually conceded somewhat to its faster model siblings.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

The 12z NAM also shows a very hefty cap over almost the entire warm sector - but forcing will be strong, so if storms do go, I'd think they would tend to be isolated.



I'd also like to keep storms out of the TX Canadian River road blackhole!

BTW, just noticed that the ECMWF has sped up quite a bit since its last couple runs - more in line now with the faster GFS. I'm sure some sort of compromise will be worked out with the slower NAM, but I can think of at least one or two recent days this season when the NAM has eventually conceded somewhat to its faster model siblings.

I'd like to know why you need data to chase storms right in front of you

Anyways...this is a very classic setup except that the cap is progged to be strong-ish which could limit the widespread nature of the setup. However, we should also have quite a lot of forcing which should yield at least a few significant supercells down the dryline. I think widespread overnight convection could help reinforce the warm front and keep it a bit south. Lots to resolve the rest of the way but it seems pretty apparent a significant threat will be in place Monday afternoon.

 

[Derek Weston]

The 12z NAM also shows a very hefty cap over almost the entire warm sector - but forcing will be strong, so if storms do go, I'd think they would tend to be isolated.

Does show a lone supercell quite a ways down the dryline in TX. Heating down there is going to be better.

Get up north towards the E OK border where the best parameters are and the NAM forecasts much cooler temps.

700 temps show a decent area of 10-12C in our area of interest.

Would be ideal to have a slightly more northerly location for our warm sector... (basically GFS solution) Given the position of the low. . .

That said, just one run, and certainly could be lights out over the panhandles.

 

[Trey Thee]

The 12z NAM also shows a very hefty cap over almost the entire warm sector - but forcing will be strong, so if storms do go, I'd think they would tend to be isolated.



I'd also like to keep storms out of the TX Canadian River road blackhole!

BTW, just noticed that the ECMWF has sped up quite a bit since its last couple runs - more in line now with the faster GFS. I'm sure some sort of compromise will be worked out with the slower NAM, but I can think of at least one or two recent days this season when the NAM has eventually conceded somewhat to its faster model siblings.

Eric I was just thinking about the same thing. The NAM has sped up on a few occassions this year to come more in line with the GFS. I guess I'm sort of hoping for that so that I don't have to worry about getting to the panhandles. I'd much rather wind up somewhere in the Enidish area.

I know it doesn't appear that moisture will be a problem, but I am still wondering if moisture return won't be a bit slower than anticipated, anyone care to shed some additional light on this possibility?

 

[Brian Stertz]

NAM sure changed my thought patterns and is one to consider as plausible given the fact that a stable high will have to be displaced over Kansas. These deep moisture surge scenarios can often be very volatile...and feel that there is enough lift and instability to overcome the seemingly hostile 700mb temps. ahead of the dryline. The supercell and tornado potential looks very high over the E. Texas Panhandle and adjacent areas of W. Oklahoma/panhandle into far SW Kansas. Guess one run does not a chase make this far in advance but it is an interesting forecast solution. Have to like the 4000+ CAPES..steep lapse rates...and -14-ish at 500mb. Kaboom.

 

[Rob H]

I know it doesn't appear that moisture will be a problem, but I am still wondering if moisture return won't be a bit slower than anticipated, anyone care to shed some additional light on this possibility?

It looks like the NAM has the trough digging and keeping the sfc low over the panhandle, where the GFS has it lifting and keeping the low over KS.. that low is what's going to pull moisture into the target area. The GFS is a little quicker than the NAM, but they both appear to agree on amplitude at 6z on 5/10. Six hours later, the GFS has it lifting.

I don't have enough experience to speculate on what's causing that or give an opinion on which version will win out in the end so I'll gladly let someone else come in and correct me and/or provide more information