5/05/06 NOW: NM/TX

[Jeff Snyder]

oh s$$$, looks like round 2 for the metroplex tonight, looks im gonna have to make another call home here fairly soon.

What do you all think are the chances of severe/tornadic activity in the metroplex here later on?
[/b]

Chances for the DFW area? Not good. You'll get lots of (stratiform) rain, but the strongest convection will miss you to the south. The southern part of the area may see a severe storm or two, but the chances for the areas N of I20 aren't very good (at least per current radar and obs). That said, you may get some wind in the rotating bow-head that's currently a county north of I20. The broadscale rotation of what appears to be an MCV centered in Shackelford co as of 11:30pm is very evident and quite impressive. You can sometimes get some strong wind w/in such a feature, and it appears to be moving just to the very slight south of due east (though weakening in time). Meanwhile, the supercells nearing I35 will be quite a ways south of DFW, and the bow echo that moved through ABI and is nor from Eastland co to Brown Co to Coleman Co is moving east-southeast, so that should miss the metroplex as well. There is a little development west of the ongoing convection, but I'd imagine that the area behind all of this is pretty worked over / mixed. There is a very healthy and expansive area of stratiform precipition north of I20, however, all the way into southern OK. Luckily, it's mainly light-moderate rain, much-needed and not heavy enough to create widespread flooding problems.

 

[Robert Edmonds]

Just wanted to comment here in ABQ we had some dime size hail, gave me a break from studying!

 

[Chris Vagasky]

A quick look at the most recent radar from Central Texas...Waco, TX (Baylor U) appears to have been right inside the core of the supercell...

Maybe after it passes through, I'll have a report from one of my friends from down there...

 

[Jeff Snyder]

A quick look at the most recent radar from Central Texas...Waco, TX (Baylor U) appears to have been right inside the core of the supercell...

Maybe after it passes through, I'll have a report from one of my friends from down there...
[/b]

1245 AM     TORNADO          WACO                    31.57N  97.18W  
05/06/2006                   MCLENNAN           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA
            TORNADO REPORTED AT WACO DRIVE

That solves that issue... Actually, it doesn't entirely... It's dark (obviously), and they are under a tornado warning, so many folks a more inclined to see something 'suspicious' and call it a tornado than they would be if they could study it for a while in good light. If this is so, I'm surprised storms can maintain their surface-based origins looking at mesoanalysis. This assumes that, to get a vortex at the ground, air from the ground must be ingested into the updraft, which may or may not always be the case I suppose.

 

[Chris Lott]

I have been watching the Waco storm develop for a while. Just before midnight the storm was developing a hook on radar and showing signs of rotation. While I was watching a local station out of Waco, they seemed more concerned with the storm over Coryell Co. but that quickly changed. By the way, that local channel went off the air shortly after! :blink: It appears the center of circulation went right through the center of Waco.

 

[Chris Lott]

Trained spotters reported a tornado touchdown on Lakeshore Drive, just north of downtown Waco. Possible tornado approaching the city of Bellmead, with storms still ongoing to the west and southwest. And my wife's out of town so I'm watching the kids. This sucks!

 

[Chris Vagasky]

1245 AM     TORNADO          WACO                    31.57N  97.18W  
05/06/2006                   MCLENNAN           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA
            TORNADO REPORTED AT WACO DRIVE

That solves that issue... Actually, it doesn't entirely... It's dark (obviously), and they are under a tornado warning, so many folks a more inclined to see something 'suspicious' and call it a tornado than they would be if they could study it for a while in good light. If this is so, I'm surprised storms can maintain their surface-based origins looking at mesoanalysis. This assumes that, to get a vortex at the ground, air from the ground must be ingested into the updraft, which may or may not always be the case I suppose.
[/b]

Well, from one of my sources...now that she's back from the basement...There was hail, which, really doesn't surprise me. She said it wasn't covering the ground and doesn't think it was any bigger than golfball size.

Of course, this is from just someone who could be considered general public, so take it with a grain of salt.

For the NOWcast part of this post...the storm really seemed to have lost its discrete supercellular characteristics as it passed through Waco.