Jeff Snyder
EF5
oh s$$$, looks like round 2 for the metroplex tonight, looks im gonna have to make another call home here fairly soon.
What do you all think are the chances of severe/tornadic activity in the metroplex here later on?
[/b]
Chances for the DFW area? Not good. You'll get lots of (stratiform) rain, but the strongest convection will miss you to the south. The southern part of the area may see a severe storm or two, but the chances for the areas N of I20 aren't very good (at least per current radar and obs). That said, you may get some wind in the rotating bow-head that's currently a county north of I20. The broadscale rotation of what appears to be an MCV centered in Shackelford co as of 11:30pm is very evident and quite impressive. You can sometimes get some strong wind w/in such a feature, and it appears to be moving just to the very slight south of due east (though weakening in time). Meanwhile, the supercells nearing I35 will be quite a ways south of DFW, and the bow echo that moved through ABI and is nor from Eastland co to Brown Co to Coleman Co is moving east-southeast, so that should miss the metroplex as well. There is a little development west of the ongoing convection, but I'd imagine that the area behind all of this is pretty worked over / mixed. There is a very healthy and expansive area of stratiform precipition north of I20, however, all the way into southern OK. Luckily, it's mainly light-moderate rain, much-needed and not heavy enough to create widespread flooding problems.