5/05/06 NOW: NM/TX

[Matthew Crowther]

Small cell now on radar just east of Carlsbad. This is right on the dryline- and on the western end of the weak ESE-WNW boundary from HOB to MAF. Best combo of surface winds and T-TD spreads are near HOB and Andrews. If I were out- that is where I would be. Explosive supercell development expected in the next 1-2 hours. Tornado threat looks to be fair to good.

Matt

 

[Marko Korosec]

Sitting with Jimmy Deguara group in Odessa, TX now...waiting for storms to explode along the dryline. There is one cell just over the mexican border. Maybe we would move a bit to the north, but staying here looks good for now.

 

[Karen Politte]

Okay maybe I'm just not seeing it - or maybe the boredom of a Friday afternoon on my own in the office has gotten to me, but....

WHY isn't there a TOR out for that THING in northeastern Chaves County, NM?!?!?!????

Or is my radar interpretation not what it used to be? The couplet on that thing is screaming TOR - and it's not THAT far away fron Canon AFB's radar.

Somebody please reply and point out why there isn't and make me look stupid - because I need it.

K.

 

[Kevin Walter]

You are not insane, Karen, that is a beast of a storm. Cells just now forming closer to LBB, along with a new TOR watch from SPC north of first TOR watch. CAPE shouldn't be as good up here as the grunge just cleared out...but if one decided to grab the boundary and ride east, look out. Just about to head out the door with the wife to do some young weekend chasing.

Good luck to all!

 

[Karen Politte]

You are not insane, Karen, that is a beast of a storm. Cells just now forming closer to LBB, along with a new TOR watch from SPC north of first TOR watch. CAPE shouldn't be as good up here as the grunge just cleared out...but if one decided to grab the boundary and ride east, look out. Just about to head out the door with the wife to do some young weekend chasing.

Good luck to all!
[/b]

But WHY isn't it even SVR warned?!?!?!?!?! It has a pixel of 77.5dbz reflectivity in it now!!!!!

Cue the ambiguous smilies!!! <_< :blink: <_<

K.

 

[Glen Romine]

It's possible they actually have a spotter out there, and the hail might be of the large, wet snowball variety. Those give very large reflectivity values - but pose little threat. The storm is sitting along the boundary - creeping toward better moisture - but is probably in something like 80/40 inflow right now - so is probably too high based to pose a tornado threat at the moment. I'm anxious to see what happens as it approaches better moisture - but it may be just a massive HP by then.

I'm also quite interested in the cluster of cells near Hobbs - which probably poses the best short-term prospects.

Glen

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Karen look out your window, i think something went off down South of us. I see blue sky to north but dark dark south. Not time to look at radar.

As for that stuff in TX, i hope you all are having fun..thats like the 2nd or 3rd straight day of it down there. If gas werent so high id certainly be down there but money is money. Im def keeping an eye on it that it doesnt inpinge on the metroplex later tonight.....Again

 

[Chris Lott]

Cell going up rapidly east of San Angelo, just north of Eden. Nothing appears severe out of this one yet, but watching closely for intensification. Movement with this cell is to the NE.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

The storm crossing the border straight West of Seminole is probably going to pose a tornado threat very shortly if it isn't already. I think that is definitely the storm to watch right now.

 

[Scott Olson]

Roosevelt county NM cell does look pretty nasty, with two storng mesos showing up- north area which has got to be at least partially obsecured by rain, if not totally. The cell is in 1200m-1000m LCL's.

EDIT: Tornado warning just issued for that cell which makes sense given the environment it's moving into and the continued strong rotation.

 

[Chris Lott]

I believe this is the same cell I just looked at on radar, moving south of Portales,NM. It developed a nice hook in the last few scans.

 

[samuel stone]

Yeah I'm pretty sure that cell was just too high based (wich would be why it wasn't tornado warned Karen) but it appears to be moving into rapidly increasing dewpoints and instability per SPC Meso Analysis.

Wow, Higher Tilts(1.45) from the lobbock radar on the Seminole cell show a huge couplet on that storm. That is the one to be on right now.

 

[samuel stone]

From the Lubbock NWS

AT 611 PM CDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 7 MILES WEST OF
MEADOW.[/b]

Looks its about stationary at this time although NWS statement indicates it's moving east at 10, hope it stays over open country.

 

[Simon Brewer]

There might not be any tornadoes occuring on some of those high-based cells at this moment, but it is quite possible; high based doesn't mean the storm is elevated and I've seen quite a few tornadoes develop from high based storms with incredibly high dewpoint depressions, so I would have to agree with Karen that a very strong couplet should at the very least probably receive at a severe thunderstorm warning.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Well this is quite painful to watch... I stayed home today because it looked like all the action was going to be sw of a line from LBB to SJt. Despite marginal tds, the area north of I20 has destabilized rather nicely, with RUC mesoanalysis indicating >1500 CAPE all the way to near Quanah and Vernon. The better 500mb flow is a little farther west, but there is still sufficient deeplayer shear to promote significant supercells. The cell immediately south of ABI (tornado-warned) has decent rotation a few 1000 feet above ground, with a nice hook as well. There are two more cells to the nw of ABI (one near Aspermont, and another near Snyder / N of SWW)... Strong low-level shear characterizes much of the area, and not-hot-temps are helping to keep LCLs in check (they are generally in the 800-1200m range).

When I awoke this morning, I figured the farthest SW I'd want to go today would be Sweetwater... The area farther south still looked better, but I wasn't sure I wanted to drive 5+ hours given that I have a couple of finals early next week... With mid-upper 50s Tds in the area from outflow from last night's storms, and plenty of low cloud cover, it wasn't apparent that areas N of I20 would destabilize at all (at least this was in line with others' thoughts, looking at SPC outlook, area AFDs, etc).

The 18z MAF sounding was pretty nice, with strong shear profile and respectable instability given the marginal CAPE. Of course, that far west, low-60 Tds mean a little more than at lower elevations.