5/02/22 EVENT: OK/TX/KS/MO

[E Hale]

Starting this up- impressive wind shear profiles forecast in OK and KS. The biggest question for me is storm mode. Not sure the storms will stay isolated enough for tornadoes especially if they’re training. Major flooding seems like a distinct possibility and from a chasing perspective a lot of washed out roads. Definitely one to watch though.

 

[Mike Smith]

Major flooding seems like a distinct possibility and from a chasing perspective a lot of washed out roads.

I can see that as an issue in Oklahoma, but I don't think chasers will have that problem in Kansas. I have attached a map of the 72-hour rainfalls. With the moderate to severe drought, I don't think Sunday night and Monday morning's rains will be that much of an issue.

 

[Mike Smith]

Here is my forecast. You'll find a meteorological discussion at the bottom which includes some synoptic climatology. Very often, morning rain is a plus IF it is able to clear and warm during the afternoon.

Monday's Tornado Outlook

Good luck and stay safe tomorrow.

 

[S Sherrod]

Here is my forecast. You'll find a meteorological discussion at the bottom which includes some synoptic climatology. Very often, morning rain is a plus IF it is able to clear and warm during the afternoon.

Monday's Tornado Outlook

Good luck and stay safe tomorrow.

HI Mike, I wondered what your thoughts are today on the rain lasting longer in and around wichita and south central ks. I think some outflow boundries may help if we can get the temps up. Looking at the 15z composite map clouds are still out west down to near the Tx panhandle.
I'm not sure temps will come up enough near Wichita to repeat Fridays outbreak. I'm thinking more towards Okla line to Enid and east.

Love to hear your thoughts .

Thanks!

 

[Todd Lemery]

I’ll be starting out a little further South in Ponca City. There’s some clearing now moving into central Oklahoma.I’m hoping for an isolated supercell to pop up further down the dryline. There’s some water crossing issues NE and SE of Ponca, but overall the terrain is pretty decent. It looks like a cold pool will settle in East of I-35 and won’t get a chance to interact with the dryline. It’ll be fairly close though Late this afternoon.

 

[Shane Young]

Am I the only person crazy enough to think a little further west is the spot to be? The moist axis and heating axis are both out that way... they'll increase a little further east and north... but can't see it getting too much into Kansas... and that we're already at noon, there won't be nearly as much heating further east, plus the storm mode questions the models are posing due to weak cap and deep layer shear dropoff... I think I'd want to be out west quickly, be on the first storms to go up that the HRRR is hinting of nearer Woodward, but keeping an eye for anything building down nearer Weatherford or Watonga where the heat and moisture are best. I don't think it's nearly a SPC risk chasing day, as most of the storms in north-central/northeast Oklahoma look more embedded and messy, and without the benefits of the clearing/warmer air that west-central/northwest Oklahoma have more. If I were in OKC now, I'd be making the drive towards Woodward. If I could be in place already, I'd probably be in like Fairview or Watonga, ready to move on northwest or west depending on visible satellite trends?

(Quick draw rough surface analysis)

Convective models don't look too enticing, evolving into a line so quickly, but think there could definitely still be more to it out west in the early stages... winds are staying more backed in the warm sector?

 

[Brian McKibben]

Not crazy at all Shane. Just check the Theta-e on the mesonet. West is destabalizing quickly. Rain cooled air is hanging around i35.

Add in that the show looks to start early. Already have some tower CU west of Woodward.

 

[S Sherrod]

Not crazy at all Shane. Just check the Theta-e on the mesonet. West is destabalizing quickly. Rain cooled air is hanging around i35.

Add in that the show looks to start early. Already have some tower CU west of Woodward.

That was my concern too. The cool air and rain hasn't moved out of the threat area.
I think Woodward or just east of there is a good spot. I'm stuck in ark city ks for a little longer with work. Good luck if anyone gets more west.

 

[Dean Baron]

Looking at current obs, satellite, and mesoanalysis I think you're probably right, Shane. Only significant clearing happening right now is out in western OK and far southern KS. I can't imagine this clearing making to I35 before initiation happens. Already starting to get a CU field along the dryline in western OK. Even in areas of northern OK that have gotten clearing recently are still only sitting with temps in the upper 60s to maybe low 70s. I've attached a screenshot of COD's satellite with streamlines, surface obs, and the Day 1 tor outlook overlayed. The area in purple is my guess for where the best tor potential is this afternoon. Maybe I'll end up eating crow on this forecast but I think the best play is farther west from the 1630 update.

 

[Todd Lemery]

Am I the only person crazy enough to think a little further west is the spot to be? The moist axis and heating axis are both out that way... they'll increase a little further east and north... but can't see it getting too much into Kansas... and that we're already at noon, there won't be nearly as much heating further east, plus the storm mode questions the models are posing due to weak cap and deep layer shear dropoff... I think I'd want to be out west quickly, be on the first storms to go up that the HRRR is hinting of nearer Woodward, but keeping an eye for anything building down nearer Weatherford or Watonga where the heat and moisture are best. I don't think it's nearly a SPC risk chasing day, as most of the storms in north-central/northeast Oklahoma look more embedded and messy, and without the benefits of the clearing/warmer air that west-central/northwest Oklahoma have more. If I were in OKC now, I'd be making the drive towards Woodward. If I could be in place already, I'd probably be in like Fairview or Watonga, ready to move on northwest or west depending on visible satellite trends?

(Quick draw rough surface analysis)

Convective models don't look too enticing, evolving into a line so quickly, but think there could definitely still be more to it out west in the early stages... winds are staying more backed in the warm sector?

View attachment 22706

Dead nuts right Shane. I ended up taking my wife on her first ever chase and jumped the storms early by Woodward. Played it safe and saw nothing. I was surprised how quickly and deeply it lined out.I probably should have put this in reports but I have nothing to report.