Tim Marshall
EF2
A potential chase day today. An upper wave is progged to romp through SW TX. Ample moisture and excellent shear. However, I don't like the weak mid-level winds. My virtual pick is around Del Rio. Anyone heading out? TM
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5/02/07 FCST: TX
- Thread starter Tim Marshall
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Jim Bishop
EF4
Yeah, I agree the 700mb flow could be stronger. I especially don't like the rather weak 850mb flow (15-20 knots). At the same time 500mb is great and CAPE will be rockin. Turning with height is really good with the backed low level flow overall. Combine that with the rockin CAPE and supercells with decent tornado potential appear likely.
If I can get out of work early enough I may head out there, but I'm not sure if I'll have enough time. Good luck.
If I can get out of work early enough I may head out there, but I'm not sure if I'll have enough time. Good luck.
Andrew McDonald
EF0
Hi all,
Two Aussies here chasing for the next month. We'll be chasing again today (chased SW and S'rn TX last 3 days now and have seen some fairly nice supercells...no tornadoes though). We are in Kerrville, Tx at the moment and will probably not move too far - maybe a little bit west and south of here. RUC is forecasting some HUGE CAPE values for south of this area later today and have a little increase in the 850mb winds (to 20-30knts) around and south of this area at 00z which might be enough to get something going. Very large hail is a distinct possibility today with the cooling mid levels and the strong instability so we'll have to be a little careful.
(If you see us out on the road, feel free to stop and say hi - green Taurus).
Macca & Chris
Two Aussies here chasing for the next month. We'll be chasing again today (chased SW and S'rn TX last 3 days now and have seen some fairly nice supercells...no tornadoes though). We are in Kerrville, Tx at the moment and will probably not move too far - maybe a little bit west and south of here. RUC is forecasting some HUGE CAPE values for south of this area later today and have a little increase in the 850mb winds (to 20-30knts) around and south of this area at 00z which might be enough to get something going. Very large hail is a distinct possibility today with the cooling mid levels and the strong instability so we'll have to be a little careful.
(If you see us out on the road, feel free to stop and say hi - green Taurus).
Macca & Chris
Andrew McDonald
EF0
Just a quick update now that I've been able to have a better look at things.
We are in Kerrville at the moment. Its 12:30pm and its drizzling and has been all morning. A dryline has set up across far NE'rn Mexico with DP's in the low 70's ahead of it and in the high 40's behind it. Very well defined. There is a bulge in this dryline which is fairly close to Del Rio. There is also an outflow boundary which is pushing quite quickly SE which could interact with the dry line in about 2 hours right near Del Rio! This will probably become our target to start the day as storms should develop where these two boundaries intersect in the next 2-3 hours and move eastwards towards/into Texas.
I know there are a few other (Aussie) chasers down this way today as well so hopefully the storms come to the party.
Macca
We are in Kerrville at the moment. Its 12:30pm and its drizzling and has been all morning. A dryline has set up across far NE'rn Mexico with DP's in the low 70's ahead of it and in the high 40's behind it. Very well defined. There is a bulge in this dryline which is fairly close to Del Rio. There is also an outflow boundary which is pushing quite quickly SE which could interact with the dry line in about 2 hours right near Del Rio! This will probably become our target to start the day as storms should develop where these two boundaries intersect in the next 2-3 hours and move eastwards towards/into Texas.
I know there are a few other (Aussie) chasers down this way today as well so hopefully the storms come to the party.
Macca
Bill Tabor
EF5
I keep looking at this day, but the mid and upper winds in area of interest (central Tx) are just so weak to non-existant. While IMO this isn't a guarantee of no tornadoes, it is a severe limiter. 300mb to 250mb is just so weak I imagine "mush" storms. DRT may have better mid to upper winds but as I recall (and looking at forecast soundings) lower levels are a bit messed up and even a bit "kinked". I'll monitor closely for this home area chase, but haven't seen anything yet that is a strong signal and reliable indicator that when I get to a destination it will be tornadic. This is more of a wait and see day. While one area at one time may go tornadic that will likely be based upon transient moving parameters. So far I am not that impressed with the mcs going on to the west, and I bet it is outflow dominant.
I might add that NAM forecasts almost doable 500mb and 300mb winds, but RUC and SPC Mesoanalysis show less. Perhaps the NAM could verify and someone find a hair more wind to make the difference. Guess we'll see.
EDIT: Ok just looked at this again to make sure I remembered this winds correctly. Looks like 500mb is doable. 250mb is miserable. 300 appears to get weaker as the day gets longer; however there is a narrow band extending I'd say north of DRT that has marginal potential.
I might add that NAM forecasts almost doable 500mb and 300mb winds, but RUC and SPC Mesoanalysis show less. Perhaps the NAM could verify and someone find a hair more wind to make the difference. Guess we'll see.
EDIT: Ok just looked at this again to make sure I remembered this winds correctly. Looks like 500mb is doable. 250mb is miserable. 300 appears to get weaker as the day gets longer; however there is a narrow band extending I'd say north of DRT that has marginal potential.
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