4/9/04: FCST: N TX & S OK

[Tim Jones]

If the moisture return or lack thereof does verify by the 00Z ETA, I wouldn't be quite as concerned as I still think decent saturation in the lower levels could take place close to the low. My concern is focused on morning convection and cloud cover/lack of instability. If this occurs, one would have to hope dynamics would overcome this and perhaps a low-topped supercell or two could initiate in or close to the low. However, taking a closer look at 850-500mb . .looks like a decent dry air intrusion will help to clear things out. Wish I could chase. Good luck to those who do.

 

[Tony Laubach]

SHOULD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE OVER WHAT IS NOW FORECAST BY THE ETA...LOWER LCLS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT TORNADOES...AND OUTLOOK MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE IN LATER FORECASTS.

Ooo that sounds nice... :headbang:

The car's packed and ready to go.. just awaiting a couple more model runs as I kill off the day at school. That and curious to see if the Day 2 goes MOD at the 1730Z update.

I've all but decided to head out.. school work is pretty well done (will be by tonight) and I should be set cash-wise (paycheck advances, gotta love 'em :love3: ).

Keeping an eye on things here from Denver, expecting to be on the road by about 10p tonight heading for an overnight stop in the TX Panhandle before making an early jog to the Wichita Falls area, hoping to arrive by or before 1p.

*crossing fingers*

BTW, anyone leaving from this direction who's low on cash, I'd be willing to pick you up along the way and share some of the expenses! Still trying to convince my buddy to escape the snow and tag along with me!

*again crosses fingers*

 

[Blake Naftel]

My high-tech non-scientific analysis to chase/or not to chase has been conducted as of 10:37am ET... and the Sakajawia dollar coin to which I flipped (calling heads) has indicated Friday is a go.

Not too worried about model runs attm; as they tend to underplay (as per the ETA) microscale events. Since I do not have the luxury of living in closer proximity to Friday's target of LTN to SPS to west of DFW; will be forced to depart Kalamazoo later this afternoon and pick up my chase partner(s) in IL - hopefully making Tulsa by early morning for some rest.

Will look over the 12Z ETA, but unless there is some hint of an Iowa'esque event transpiring over the next 36 hours, and baring any delays, I will be barnstorming across the Red River Valley around 21Z Friday afternoon.

Roll of the dice - Round II.

..Blake..

 

[Chris C Sanner]

I'm going to be hitting the Triple Point most likely. Depending on its location SPS to LTN is definately my early target. Depending on when they expect initiation tommorow, I should leave around noon-ish because its such a short trip out there. Everyone be looking for the white cougar with a banged up bumper!

 

[Jason Montano]

friday is a go

I am going chasing on friday, that is for sure. I'm not too worried about the eta underestimating dp, it has steadily been increasing projected dp's for two days straight. This is the same thing the eta did with the 27 March event, until the day of, when it came inline with the gfs. I think its gonna be a good day for NW texas.

Tony, it's cool to see another Skin's fan around!! I am from the DC area and have seen nothing but Cowboys fans around here. GO SKINS!!

 

[Amos Magliocco]

After my exhaustive five minute review of the 12Z (LOL), I think things still look good. ETA is still stingy with the moisture and that's a possible problem as could be anvil blowoff from early convection limiting insolation and the growing diffusion of the dryline. But the model also appears to maximize convergence north of the dry punch and delivers even higher CAPE values than seen on prior runs. Tricky to take indices literally on these deals, I know, but still....

Overall the changes in this run are relatively marginal and it still looks good to me.

A

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Well, I'm going AWAY from Oklahoma later this afternoon through the weekend, so I won't be able to chase. Heading to NC for Easter.

At any rate... The big concern about any pesistant tornadic activity is weak mid-level winds. I mean, the ETA generally has 500mb 35-42kts over the area. This, in addition to 25-30kt 700mb winds, will spell slow storm motions. However, I'm largely concerrned about mid-level storm-relative winds. I really can't imagine SR winds at 500mb will be much larger than 10 kts, maybe. Thompson has done some research and found that SR-winds seem to be important in tornadic pesistance... So, I'm expecting that to be the fly-in-the-ointment as far as persistant tornadic activity is concerned...

Other than that, instability and low-level shear looks decent (though 12Z ETA shows 0-1k helicity very very small over in the warm sector). Looking at the wind profiles across the area tomorrow, I'm kind of concerned about the orientation of the front ... The 12Z ETA has it positioned NW/SE... Given an ENE storm motion, this would cause the storms to cross the boundary into lower instabilities. Whatever the case, far from the best setup, but depending upon storm mode, I could see a couple of tornadoes occurring... I'd analyze models more but am running out of time... Good luck to those who go out.

Jeff

 

[Tony Laubach]

So Blake's still flipping coins, eh! Just in case I don't catch ya between now and the time you hit the road, have a safe trip down! Going to be a long night for a few of us heading out, I think.

I've pretty well decided on going.. just some small reservations (not wx-related), but I think I should be okay *prays to God*. Still staying tuned for the latest developments in what could possibly be a 'Good Friday'.

Amos, cute comment about the band getting together! *LOL* Hopefully we'll knock 'em dead like we did a couple weeks ago! Sorry you won't be around to play with us!

Tony, it's cool to see another Skin's fan around!! I am from the DC area and have seen nothing but Cowboys fans around here. GO SKINS!!

Major skins fan here! Wore my personalized #81 jersey on March 27 and it brought me all sorts of luck! Be watchin' for that to be covering my back once again on this trip!

 

[George Tincher]

I just took a look-see at the 12z ETA and GFS runs out through the period of around 18z tomorrow. At this time I hope the ETA is the correct solution. While both models displayed similar indices during that period, the ETA did show some fairly nice SE and S winds at the sfc, where the GFS showed nearly unidirectional winds from the sfc up through about 500 mb. I never wanna see SW sfc winds in the target area near the time of storm initiation! Let's hope the ETA is more accurate in this regard and that CAPE/moisture can be slightly higher.

As it stands, it appears to be a pretty decent set-up if the current ETA is on. I would like to see slightly better moisture/CAPE values, but it by no means looks terrible. I saw some 60-65 dewpoints punching into the target area by 18z and it appeared CAPE could be as high as 1500-2000 J/KG by that time. The directional shear appeared ideal with the ETA run. However speed shear with height wasn't drastic. On the other hand, as long as the winds are sufficient for venting, that's good enough for me, as many times I have seen good systems destroyed by overly high winds aloft.

All you guys to be in business is for slightly better TD's. If you could bump up the CAPE another 500 J/KG, that would only add icing to the cake. If that can happen I believe you guys will have a good day. But again, it doesn't appear terrible as things stand now. It may not reach historical outbreak proportions, but I see some tornadoes tomorrow. Now all I can do is hope those of you who chase also see tornadoes.....in your viewfinder! Good luck to those who go out.

-George

 

[Chris Sokol]

I have to take a test at school at 8 AM, then I am on the road. Probably take I-44 to Wichita Falls and get data (time to try the new wireless card out). Moisture return is starting to look better, although I agree that a 500 J/KG bump in CAPE would be nice...not that it matters. I will be out there anyway.

 

[Mickey Ptak]

h

I have to work until 8:30am. So I will be making my decision on a target tomorrow morning. Needless to say I am going. I really don't think the moisture is going to be as bad as some are making it out to be. Last time I checked 60 to 65 dw were not all that bad. Any way tomorrow’s analysis will paint the picture for this chase.

Have fun and be safe...

Mickey

 

[George Tincher]

The 1730 Day 2 still retains the 25% significant severe probability, so the SPC forecasters must feel there's a good chance of supercells and tornadoes, regardless of what the models are spitting out. Considering how often the models have been low on both CAPE and moisture leading into events this year, I am not placing a great deal of personal faith in them attm. I guess from this point forward it's a game of wait and see. Funny, isn't that always the case? Hehe.

-George

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

this posting has been deleted by LJK.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

answer to Larry

Its from the movie dumb and dumber. I am a big fan.

 

[Shane Adams]

Well, my optimism hasn't fluctuated any after an intense analysis just now (intense for me is about 20 or so minutes, 10 on cable). I'm interested in both the ETA and GFs' stinginess with the moisture at 700mb....the ETA is somewhat lacking but the GFS is just plain arid. But then I realized that models are much like people, flighty and unpredictable.

The main consistency I see with both models is the nice concentration of CAPE at all levels in SW/SC OK/extreme N TX. I think this could be a major "finger" pointing the way to tornadic bliss tomorrow. Nothing I saw just now makes me feel confident in any one area 100%, but for now I'm liking my original target town of Ardmore. Of course, playing west of there will most-likely be the first plan of action tomorrow, but I expect to be in the middle of it by tomorrow evening somewhere along I-35.

I'm quite content to forget what I just saw and wait for the 0Z runs. Returned from work not long ago, so I think a shower and some Sam Adams are in order. I'll be back later after the 0Z runs.

I know that synoptically there's probably no big similarities, but I keep getting the feeling that tomorrow will play out much like the 27th, as far as initiation time/mode/evolution. The one difference I see is the large tornadoes will happen later into the event, not at the beginning.