4/9/04: FCST: N TX & S OK

[Shane Adams]

In all my model reading frenzy, I completely forgot to check out a current surface chart. Don't I feel silly now.....

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Call me an optimist but I've seen storms tornado in mid/upper 50s dewpoints before. Add in the fact they're going to be crawling around I'm still heading out. i'm adjusting my target to....Velma! Now I'm just gonna sit at home and when something begins to fire per the Satellite, NWS, and SPC I'll head out. I know I'm cheating, but I'm still confident there will be a sweet looking storm today.

 

[Shane Adams]

Originally posted by Chris_Sanner
I know I'm cheating, but I'm still confident there will be a sweet looking storm today.

Well, if your target is home - why not monitor conditions and watch for development? That isn't cheating; tons of chasers do this in the field, everytime they chase.

Back to the subject of today - I was pleased with the latest SPC outlook, they pretty much agree with what I'm seeing (though they are understandably more skeptic). Looks like we'll be heading to Ardmore.

Like you said, tornadoes in 50s dewpoints are not unheard of, and everytime I bail on a moisture-lacking, near-front set-up, I get burned (like on May 16 last year). I'm gonna gamble that a storm in SC/S/SE OK will take advantage of the shear/backed flow/helicity near the front and spin....and tornado.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

I plan to do that

I'll probably see you out there today good luck to everyone going out and be safe!

 

[Tim Vasquez]

A big negative - Clear skies all the way south to the Gulf. It's sunny and bright here in Austin with calm winds. FWD's sounding is a huge problem... the mixed parcel yields a surface dewpoint of 50F, and barely squeaks in with what looks like a 300-500 CAPE. Corpus Christi's 64F dewpoint is an illusion because of its limited depth; mixed through 100 mb we get more like a 53F dewpoint and almost no CAPE.

Also lapse rates are poor. It will only get worse seeing as the 12Z RUC is going for 1 to 2C of warming at 500 mb.

Tim

 

[Tim Vasquez]

There's a patch of low clouds in the Texas Hill Country that bears watching. It appears to be stratocumulus from what I can tell, and it's overlaid with some faster-moving cirrus (indicated on DRT sounding). The RUC is not picking this up and it may represent a chunk of better theta-e later in the day. SJT VWP shows SSW flow at 20-40 kt, so if this patch represents anything it might be worth keeping an eye on parcels in central Texas up to SEP/MWL/FTW.

Tim

 

[George Tincher]

Well, as of 9:40 AM CDT, it appears that most of the rain is confined to areas of NC OK and points N of that, leaving most of S OK and TX rain free. Satellite shows some clearing over this same area, at least as far as the heavy cloud cover. Hopefully those remaining clouds will will disintegrate as the day progresses allowing some good heating to take place. Surface obs from the area will follow shortly.

-George

 

[George Tincher]

9 AM CDT Surface obs round-up

Ardmore, OK
temp: 57
DP: 50
Winds: Calm

Lawton, OK
Temp: 57
DP: 55
Winds: ESE @ 12 mph

Paul's Valley, OK
Temp: 61
DP: 46
Winds: E @ 5 mph

Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX
Temp: 64
DP: 55
Winds: SSW @ 7 mph

Waco, TX
Temp: 63
dp: 57
winds: calm

Wichita Falls, TX
Temp: 60
DP: 54
Winds: E @ 7 mph

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Hope everyone down there has fun today (enjoy it, because it may be the last chance for a bit) - hopefully moisture concerns become less of an issue as the day goes on and that good air trucks itself northward ... things might still pop with 50-55td ... maybe dryline forcing will help make up for any deficiencies.

Mike U - wish you were chasing on more than radar ... would make for good video tomorrow ... have a safe trip up to Lawrence - - -

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

With surface heating underway (or soon underway) in southern Oklahoma, I think weak evapotranspiration and "dewpoint pooling" will be sufficient to raise surface dewpoints to the 58-60 range. Advection alone is certainly not going to do it with such weak wind fields! Those dewpoints will be quite shallow, as the regional soundings suggest 11 g/kg is the best we will be able to muster for the mixed layer.

So, given this idea, the fact I have the afternoon off and nothing better to do, I will probably wander on down to southern Oklahoma to play along the remnant boundary, perhaps where it intersects the weak/diffuse dryline. Deep shear is sufficient for supercell structure, but the high cloud base and poor low level shear suggests tornado potential would be limited to landspout-type vortices.

Target: Alma, Oklahoma (someone else already picked Velma!) 8)

 

[Angie Norris]

Was waiting for the magic 15z obs to come out ...
Looks like the warm front is currently lurking south of DFW. Big negatives so far are the dewpoints and winds. A good point is the clear skies so should be more than sufficient warming. Also like the 50 KT SW winds at 500 mb...at least there's shear. Hints of the dryline look to be setting up in the eastern Panhandle area.
If I were out there, think I'd be lurking near Gainesville TX. Unfortunately, I'll be cyber-chasing since I had to work last night .
Good luck, safe travels and happy hunting to all who are out!!

Angie

 

[George Tincher]

Well, I just ran another quick check on the sfc obs and dewpoints are still just in the mid to upper 50's at best over most of TX. To find a reading of 60 or above, I had to go all the way down to Houston. And the DP there was only 61.

It appears if it's gonna do it, it's gonna have to do it with 55-60 TD's at best. But I won't totally give up just yet. Hopefully there will be something out there to make it worth the trouble for those chasing. But I just don't see much in the way of moisture advection heading northward.

-George

 

[John Cameron]

storms or no storms, let it be known that at 12Z its 37F in Denver.

Have a nice day!

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Currently dewpoint in Duncan is 59 and at my house (measured) it is 59.8. Still waiting patiently here in Velma...