4/9/04: FCST: N TX & S OK

[Amos Magliocco]

12Z ETA depicts a shortwave crossing the Red River Valley region around midday Friday where a recovering airmass may hold sufficient instability to fire storms along and north of a projected dryline push. Low level wind trajectories for the next 48 hours are not particularly supportive of recovery which is why depth of moisture looks like the biggest fly in the ointment right now. Deep layer shear and forecast SRH values appear supportive of rotating storms, based on the 12Z ETA.

It's the last show in town for a while afterwards as well.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Ok, here's how I view the situation.

A)I am free the whole day
B)Its Good Friday (Red River Good Friday Tornado Outbreak sounds good)

It has the makings of a historic event if you ask me

Now seriously, I think the lack of moisture will hurt us somewhat but I have seen higher moisture returns before so I'd say pack the equipment and be ready..

 

[Mickey Ptak]

4/9/04

Well the current 12Z ETA run shows the triple point over Wichita Falls, Tx by OOZ Friday. Moisture return (according to the ETA) isn’t all that bad, low 60’s at this point along the dryline. Cape values of 3500 in south Tx and 1500 in Western Ok. The current run also indicates 3km Shear is forecasted at 32 m/2 with Helicity value, along the red river, at 380.
Just a quick 20 min forecast, but something to look for. Looks like it could be fun.

Mickey

 

[Shane Adams]

Haven't looked at models still (yet), but we're definitely going out Friday, if for any other reason, as Amos mentioned it's the last show for some time. I'm always an optimist in Spring.

Yesterday was pretty much scoffed at, as March 27th would've been (had it not been in central OK). I like Friday to give us our next tornado(es).

 

[Blake Naftel]

I've been swamped with classes, exams, and papers as the final three weeks of my semester winds up (or down, depending on your logic). Since the ensemble models are not hinting at anything interesting until around the 15-20th of April timeframe, and since this is yet another weekend chase opportunity (I have FRI through MON off), may make the gauntlet down I-44 towards the RRV region Thursday afternoon/evening.

Not too optimistic attm, but we're bordering on mid-April and my chase time prior to working tours is limited. Will monitor this closely over the next 24 hours.

..Blake..

 

[David Draun]

Sure friday looks good, but what about the big flare-ups of storms this afternoon? I know this belongs in a Now thread, but I'm not authorized to start anything in this topic. But, right now there are 4 blue boxes from TX to AL and plenty of 60-65 dBz echoes contained in the watch boxes. I wonder if anyone is out there watching that. SPC includes supercell potential.

 

[Tony Laubach]

I may be crunched for time getting out that way, but if conditions warrent, I may also be joining the Red River crowd and heading out myself . My leave time would have me out of Denver late Thursday evening in which I would likely crash overnight in the TX Panhandle :sleepy2: and head out early in the morning for the Wichita Falls area (give or take 100 miles).

Not too excited over this, either, but it holds potential; especially since I do have the entire weekend off :thumbleft: ! A few of us left from IA with the same not-so-excited attitudes and look what happened :shock: , so I won't put anything out to pasture just yet. Will keep an eye on things through tomorrow and prepare my vehicle and equipment tonight just in case. Also will bring my lucky jersey 8) !

Tony

P.S. And as Amos pointed out, this is the last show in town for a while.. might as well chance it, eh! :violent3:

 

[Amos Magliocco]

What is this? Are we putting the band back together or something? LOL! Blake and Tony both heading back to the scene of our recent crimes. Man. I don't see any way I can join you guys--school is in major crunch-time at the moment. I'd have to pull some serious all-nighters if I made a chase of it. I'm probably sitting this one out, though I still like what the 12Z showed.

A

 

[Blake Naftel]

I too have alot on my plate, but most of which will be completed and handed in my Thursday afternoon. This is still up in the air for me, as I'd have to coordinate two, potentially three other people into this chase to even afford it. If a chase does materialize, would depart late Thursday afternoon, and hopefully make Tulsa for an early morning rest.

Will wait and look at new ETA data Thursday; but will be on the road for the 00Z runs (w/ no mobile internet). Perhaps I can rope Dr. Brown into the mayhem as well.

..Blake..

 

[Jeff Wear]

I hope we don't get too much precip behind the front to reinforce the cool airmass behind the front and drive it too far south during the day Friday. I'm kinda worried about all the precip the ETA is breaking out early in the day, and has the front further south for 00z/Sat on the 00z run than it did on the 12z run. Also notice that the GFS has been placing the low further east than the ETA - if the GFS is to be believed the best chasing would be in the bad territory east of I-35, but it is interesting to see how generous it's being with the moisture return. I haven't had a whole lot of luck chasing surging cold front setups so I'm kinda leery, but I'll definitely keep an eye on things and make sure I keep Friday afternoon free for a possible chase.

 

[Melissa Moon]

I'm going to be optimistic for now (because being optimistic is more exciting than being pessimistic), but not going to make any decision as to whether or not to go out until about 18 more hours or so.

 

[mikegeukes]

Severe Weather Event is over, removed information.

Mike

 

[Shane Adams]

Friday is developing as I hoped so far. I'm not worried about models varying; everyone's a pessimist when the models look good, but when they're not so good people tend to believe them more. I think that's just jitters, lol.

As I mentioned two days ago, we're chasing tomorrow regardless of the forecast. I see more tornadoes in our future 8)

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Originally posted by Shane Adams
Friday is developing as I hoped so far. I'm not worried about models varying; everyone's a pessimist when the models look good, but when they're not so good people tend to believe them more.

This seems like a wise philosophy. Taking the models literally 48 to 72 hours away is probably dubious. As I told somebody in chat last night, all I take from yesterday's ETA is that a midlevel shortwave will cross a marginally unstable boundary layer sometime Friday. All other details remain up for grabs.

For those in easy striking distance and who have the day off, however, it seems like a no-brainer. Why wouldn't you chase this?

What interests me about the 8Z SWODY2 is the discussion about ETA underestimating dewpoints. Every year this is a bone of contention with the models. My assumption was that ETA remained conservative with moisture return because of the unfavorable low level wind trajectories (see 850 winds from 0-36 hours). I was guessing that with a shallow moist layer, the dryline on Friday would tend to mix eastward very quickly and perhaps become more diffuse than forecast, thereby reducing its value as a focal point for convection.

While we're all waiting on the 12Z, can anybody talk more intelligently about return flow and trajectories? I was keeping up with Rich Thompson's work in this area a few years ago, but have since fallen off the wagon and back to my state of ignorance.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I'm in like a dirty shirt.

 

[Tim Jones]

If the moisture return or lack thereof does verify by the 00Z ETA, I wouldn't be quite as concerned as I still think decent saturation in the lower levels could take place close to the low. My concern is focused on morning convection and cloud cover/lack of instability. If this occurs, one would have to hope dynamics would overcome this and perhaps a low-topped supercell or two could initiate in or close to the low. However, taking a closer look at 850-500mb . .looks like a decent dry air intrusion will help to clear things out. Wish I could chase. Good luck to those who do.

 

[Tony Laubach]

SHOULD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE OVER WHAT IS NOW FORECAST BY THE ETA...LOWER LCLS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT TORNADOES...AND OUTLOOK MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE IN LATER FORECASTS.

Ooo that sounds nice... :headbang:

The car's packed and ready to go.. just awaiting a couple more model runs as I kill off the day at school. That and curious to see if the Day 2 goes MOD at the 1730Z update.

I've all but decided to head out.. school work is pretty well done (will be by tonight) and I should be set cash-wise (paycheck advances, gotta love 'em :love3: ).

Keeping an eye on things here from Denver, expecting to be on the road by about 10p tonight heading for an overnight stop in the TX Panhandle before making an early jog to the Wichita Falls area, hoping to arrive by or before 1p.

*crossing fingers*

BTW, anyone leaving from this direction who's low on cash, I'd be willing to pick you up along the way and share some of the expenses! Still trying to convince my buddy to escape the snow and tag along with me!

*again crosses fingers*

 

[Blake Naftel]

My high-tech non-scientific analysis to chase/or not to chase has been conducted as of 10:37am ET... and the Sakajawia dollar coin to which I flipped (calling heads) has indicated Friday is a go.

Not too worried about model runs attm; as they tend to underplay (as per the ETA) microscale events. Since I do not have the luxury of living in closer proximity to Friday's target of LTN to SPS to west of DFW; will be forced to depart Kalamazoo later this afternoon and pick up my chase partner(s) in IL - hopefully making Tulsa by early morning for some rest.

Will look over the 12Z ETA, but unless there is some hint of an Iowa'esque event transpiring over the next 36 hours, and baring any delays, I will be barnstorming across the Red River Valley around 21Z Friday afternoon.

Roll of the dice - Round II.

..Blake..

 

[Chris C Sanner]

I'm going to be hitting the Triple Point most likely. Depending on its location SPS to LTN is definately my early target. Depending on when they expect initiation tommorow, I should leave around noon-ish because its such a short trip out there. Everyone be looking for the white cougar with a banged up bumper!

 

[Jason Montano]

friday is a go

I am going chasing on friday, that is for sure. I'm not too worried about the eta underestimating dp, it has steadily been increasing projected dp's for two days straight. This is the same thing the eta did with the 27 March event, until the day of, when it came inline with the gfs. I think its gonna be a good day for NW texas.

Tony, it's cool to see another Skin's fan around!! I am from the DC area and have seen nothing but Cowboys fans around here. GO SKINS!!

 

[Amos Magliocco]

After my exhaustive five minute review of the 12Z (LOL), I think things still look good. ETA is still stingy with the moisture and that's a possible problem as could be anvil blowoff from early convection limiting insolation and the growing diffusion of the dryline. But the model also appears to maximize convergence north of the dry punch and delivers even higher CAPE values than seen on prior runs. Tricky to take indices literally on these deals, I know, but still....

Overall the changes in this run are relatively marginal and it still looks good to me.

A

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Well, I'm going AWAY from Oklahoma later this afternoon through the weekend, so I won't be able to chase. Heading to NC for Easter.

At any rate... The big concern about any pesistant tornadic activity is weak mid-level winds. I mean, the ETA generally has 500mb 35-42kts over the area. This, in addition to 25-30kt 700mb winds, will spell slow storm motions. However, I'm largely concerrned about mid-level storm-relative winds. I really can't imagine SR winds at 500mb will be much larger than 10 kts, maybe. Thompson has done some research and found that SR-winds seem to be important in tornadic pesistance... So, I'm expecting that to be the fly-in-the-ointment as far as persistant tornadic activity is concerned...

Other than that, instability and low-level shear looks decent (though 12Z ETA shows 0-1k helicity very very small over in the warm sector). Looking at the wind profiles across the area tomorrow, I'm kind of concerned about the orientation of the front ... The 12Z ETA has it positioned NW/SE... Given an ENE storm motion, this would cause the storms to cross the boundary into lower instabilities. Whatever the case, far from the best setup, but depending upon storm mode, I could see a couple of tornadoes occurring... I'd analyze models more but am running out of time... Good luck to those who go out.

Jeff

 

[Tony Laubach]

So Blake's still flipping coins, eh! Just in case I don't catch ya between now and the time you hit the road, have a safe trip down! Going to be a long night for a few of us heading out, I think.

I've pretty well decided on going.. just some small reservations (not wx-related), but I think I should be okay *prays to God*. Still staying tuned for the latest developments in what could possibly be a 'Good Friday'.

Amos, cute comment about the band getting together! *LOL* Hopefully we'll knock 'em dead like we did a couple weeks ago! Sorry you won't be around to play with us!

Tony, it's cool to see another Skin's fan around!! I am from the DC area and have seen nothing but Cowboys fans around here. GO SKINS!!

Major skins fan here! Wore my personalized #81 jersey on March 27 and it brought me all sorts of luck! Be watchin' for that to be covering my back once again on this trip!

 

[George Tincher]

I just took a look-see at the 12z ETA and GFS runs out through the period of around 18z tomorrow. At this time I hope the ETA is the correct solution. While both models displayed similar indices during that period, the ETA did show some fairly nice SE and S winds at the sfc, where the GFS showed nearly unidirectional winds from the sfc up through about 500 mb. I never wanna see SW sfc winds in the target area near the time of storm initiation! Let's hope the ETA is more accurate in this regard and that CAPE/moisture can be slightly higher.

As it stands, it appears to be a pretty decent set-up if the current ETA is on. I would like to see slightly better moisture/CAPE values, but it by no means looks terrible. I saw some 60-65 dewpoints punching into the target area by 18z and it appeared CAPE could be as high as 1500-2000 J/KG by that time. The directional shear appeared ideal with the ETA run. However speed shear with height wasn't drastic. On the other hand, as long as the winds are sufficient for venting, that's good enough for me, as many times I have seen good systems destroyed by overly high winds aloft.

All you guys to be in business is for slightly better TD's. If you could bump up the CAPE another 500 J/KG, that would only add icing to the cake. If that can happen I believe you guys will have a good day. But again, it doesn't appear terrible as things stand now. It may not reach historical outbreak proportions, but I see some tornadoes tomorrow. Now all I can do is hope those of you who chase also see tornadoes.....in your viewfinder! Good luck to those who go out.

-George

 

[Chris Sokol]

I have to take a test at school at 8 AM, then I am on the road. Probably take I-44 to Wichita Falls and get data (time to try the new wireless card out). Moisture return is starting to look better, although I agree that a 500 J/KG bump in CAPE would be nice...not that it matters. I will be out there anyway.