4/9/04: FCST: N TX & S OK

[Amos Magliocco]

12Z ETA depicts a shortwave crossing the Red River Valley region around midday Friday where a recovering airmass may hold sufficient instability to fire storms along and north of a projected dryline push. Low level wind trajectories for the next 48 hours are not particularly supportive of recovery which is why depth of moisture looks like the biggest fly in the ointment right now. Deep layer shear and forecast SRH values appear supportive of rotating storms, based on the 12Z ETA.

It's the last show in town for a while afterwards as well.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Ok, here's how I view the situation.

A)I am free the whole day
B)Its Good Friday (Red River Good Friday Tornado Outbreak sounds good)

It has the makings of a historic event if you ask me

Now seriously, I think the lack of moisture will hurt us somewhat but I have seen higher moisture returns before so I'd say pack the equipment and be ready..

 

[Mickey Ptak]

4/9/04

Well the current 12Z ETA run shows the triple point over Wichita Falls, Tx by OOZ Friday. Moisture return (according to the ETA) isn’t all that bad, low 60’s at this point along the dryline. Cape values of 3500 in south Tx and 1500 in Western Ok. The current run also indicates 3km Shear is forecasted at 32 m/2 with Helicity value, along the red river, at 380.
Just a quick 20 min forecast, but something to look for. Looks like it could be fun.

Mickey

 

[Shane Adams]

Haven't looked at models still (yet), but we're definitely going out Friday, if for any other reason, as Amos mentioned it's the last show for some time. I'm always an optimist in Spring.

Yesterday was pretty much scoffed at, as March 27th would've been (had it not been in central OK). I like Friday to give us our next tornado(es).

 

[Blake Naftel]

I've been swamped with classes, exams, and papers as the final three weeks of my semester winds up (or down, depending on your logic). Since the ensemble models are not hinting at anything interesting until around the 15-20th of April timeframe, and since this is yet another weekend chase opportunity (I have FRI through MON off), may make the gauntlet down I-44 towards the RRV region Thursday afternoon/evening.

Not too optimistic attm, but we're bordering on mid-April and my chase time prior to working tours is limited. Will monitor this closely over the next 24 hours.

..Blake..

 

[David Draun]

Sure friday looks good, but what about the big flare-ups of storms this afternoon? I know this belongs in a Now thread, but I'm not authorized to start anything in this topic. But, right now there are 4 blue boxes from TX to AL and plenty of 60-65 dBz echoes contained in the watch boxes. I wonder if anyone is out there watching that. SPC includes supercell potential.

 

[Tony Laubach]

I may be crunched for time getting out that way, but if conditions warrent, I may also be joining the Red River crowd and heading out myself . My leave time would have me out of Denver late Thursday evening in which I would likely crash overnight in the TX Panhandle :sleepy2: and head out early in the morning for the Wichita Falls area (give or take 100 miles).

Not too excited over this, either, but it holds potential; especially since I do have the entire weekend off :thumbleft: ! A few of us left from IA with the same not-so-excited attitudes and look what happened :shock: , so I won't put anything out to pasture just yet. Will keep an eye on things through tomorrow and prepare my vehicle and equipment tonight just in case. Also will bring my lucky jersey 8) !

Tony

P.S. And as Amos pointed out, this is the last show in town for a while.. might as well chance it, eh! :violent3:

 

[Amos Magliocco]

What is this? Are we putting the band back together or something? LOL! Blake and Tony both heading back to the scene of our recent crimes. Man. I don't see any way I can join you guys--school is in major crunch-time at the moment. I'd have to pull some serious all-nighters if I made a chase of it. I'm probably sitting this one out, though I still like what the 12Z showed.

A

 

[Blake Naftel]

I too have alot on my plate, but most of which will be completed and handed in my Thursday afternoon. This is still up in the air for me, as I'd have to coordinate two, potentially three other people into this chase to even afford it. If a chase does materialize, would depart late Thursday afternoon, and hopefully make Tulsa for an early morning rest.

Will wait and look at new ETA data Thursday; but will be on the road for the 00Z runs (w/ no mobile internet). Perhaps I can rope Dr. Brown into the mayhem as well.

..Blake..

 

[Jeff Wear]

I hope we don't get too much precip behind the front to reinforce the cool airmass behind the front and drive it too far south during the day Friday. I'm kinda worried about all the precip the ETA is breaking out early in the day, and has the front further south for 00z/Sat on the 00z run than it did on the 12z run. Also notice that the GFS has been placing the low further east than the ETA - if the GFS is to be believed the best chasing would be in the bad territory east of I-35, but it is interesting to see how generous it's being with the moisture return. I haven't had a whole lot of luck chasing surging cold front setups so I'm kinda leery, but I'll definitely keep an eye on things and make sure I keep Friday afternoon free for a possible chase.

 

[Melissa Moon]

I'm going to be optimistic for now (because being optimistic is more exciting than being pessimistic), but not going to make any decision as to whether or not to go out until about 18 more hours or so.

 

[mikegeukes]

Severe Weather Event is over, removed information.

Mike

 

[Shane Adams]

Friday is developing as I hoped so far. I'm not worried about models varying; everyone's a pessimist when the models look good, but when they're not so good people tend to believe them more. I think that's just jitters, lol.

As I mentioned two days ago, we're chasing tomorrow regardless of the forecast. I see more tornadoes in our future 8)

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Originally posted by Shane Adams
Friday is developing as I hoped so far. I'm not worried about models varying; everyone's a pessimist when the models look good, but when they're not so good people tend to believe them more.

This seems like a wise philosophy. Taking the models literally 48 to 72 hours away is probably dubious. As I told somebody in chat last night, all I take from yesterday's ETA is that a midlevel shortwave will cross a marginally unstable boundary layer sometime Friday. All other details remain up for grabs.

For those in easy striking distance and who have the day off, however, it seems like a no-brainer. Why wouldn't you chase this?

What interests me about the 8Z SWODY2 is the discussion about ETA underestimating dewpoints. Every year this is a bone of contention with the models. My assumption was that ETA remained conservative with moisture return because of the unfavorable low level wind trajectories (see 850 winds from 0-36 hours). I was guessing that with a shallow moist layer, the dryline on Friday would tend to mix eastward very quickly and perhaps become more diffuse than forecast, thereby reducing its value as a focal point for convection.

While we're all waiting on the 12Z, can anybody talk more intelligently about return flow and trajectories? I was keeping up with Rich Thompson's work in this area a few years ago, but have since fallen off the wagon and back to my state of ignorance.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I'm in like a dirty shirt.