Brandon Lawson
EF2
Without the potential for any big chase days in the near future, I've turned my attention to this coming Tuesday in northeast New Mexico and the western Texas Panhandle. Over the span of tomorrow into Tuesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to eject into the northern plains, while at the surface, a strengthening surface low over eastern Montana and western North Dakota should create favorable conditions for mositure return flow over the plains (which we've already been experiencing to a degree). Behind this trough, models are showing a secondary shortwave impulse crossing over the high plains, with the GFS being slightly faster and further east, but also weaker. This should leave northeastern New Mexico and portions of the Texas Panhandle under an area of weak ascent associated with the right-entrance quadrant of the upper-jet, albeit unimpressive jet. Additionally, low-level hodographs aren't too shabby.
There are multiple obstacles with this setup. The first is the obvious lack of deep moisture. However, both the NAM and GFS are now showing wide-spread lower 50's dewpoints, and a pocket of 750-1000 J/kg of CAPE over northeast New Mexico. I'd like to think that there is a good chance that both models are underdoing moisture return. We've experienced back-to-back days of upper 50's dewpoints over the southern plains, with lower 60's dewpoints over southern Texas. With nothing changing in the moisture return trajectories, I'm crossing my fingers that some of this can creep further west. This would also contribute to slightly better CAPE values.
A second hang-up is the question of deep-layer shear. The quicker solution of the GFS provides surface to 500mb bulk shear in the range of 40-50 knots, which would be sufficient for the development of supercells. However the NAM is slower and shows much less.
Despite all of these uncertainties, I'm hoping to make it out. Even a couple of hailers and some decent structure would make me happy.
There are multiple obstacles with this setup. The first is the obvious lack of deep moisture. However, both the NAM and GFS are now showing wide-spread lower 50's dewpoints, and a pocket of 750-1000 J/kg of CAPE over northeast New Mexico. I'd like to think that there is a good chance that both models are underdoing moisture return. We've experienced back-to-back days of upper 50's dewpoints over the southern plains, with lower 60's dewpoints over southern Texas. With nothing changing in the moisture return trajectories, I'm crossing my fingers that some of this can creep further west. This would also contribute to slightly better CAPE values.
A second hang-up is the question of deep-layer shear. The quicker solution of the GFS provides surface to 500mb bulk shear in the range of 40-50 knots, which would be sufficient for the development of supercells. However the NAM is slower and shows much less.
Despite all of these uncertainties, I'm hoping to make it out. Even a couple of hailers and some decent structure would make me happy.
. My initial target in northeast New Mexico could still see some storms today, but the 4km WRF doesn't fire a thing and the 12z NAM is showing some capping issues, despite what I see as good moisture at 925mb. Mid-level warming on forecast soundings between 700-500mb is also a concern. Visible satellite shows plenty of clearing ahead of the dryline and approaching cold front, so I wouldn't think that daytime heating would be a problem. Currently low to mid 50's dewpoints are sitting just south and east of this area from a Clovis, NM to an Amarillo, TX line.
