Wow absolutely amazed there isnt a thread for today up. Yes the tornado threat is very minimal but the severe threat is just as high as it has been. Will concentrate this thread on N TX and OK.
Basically todays setup is a carbon copy of yesterdays except further S. CF should be oriented NE-SW W of the DFW metroplex by peak heating. SREF ensembles and model forecast soundings suggest CAPE values upwards of 3500 J will exist from Jacksboro NE to Sherman and Durant. 12z Upper Air analysis and wv imagery show another impulse in the mean SWRLY flow aloft across SRN NM to eject out across NWRN TX into C OK by peak heating today. That should provide the neccessary forcing for ascent along the aforementioned boundary to get storms going. 4km NSSL WRF suggests initiation by 21z from Eastland, TX NE thru Decatur to Gainsville. Expect a broken line of storms with embedded supercell structures. Due to the orientation of the wind fields being out of the NE behind the frontal boundary and lack of an identifiable sfc low along the front, not expecting a sig tornado threat. Though adequate CAPE values in the hail growth region suggests baseball hail is likely with any storm along with damaging straight line winds.
After sunset, expect robust isentropic lifting to increase N of the boundary across OK leading to scattered to widespread elevated thunderstorms, esp across C/ERN parts of the state. Elevated CAPE values will be sufficient for storms to become severe overnight.
Basically todays setup is a carbon copy of yesterdays except further S. CF should be oriented NE-SW W of the DFW metroplex by peak heating. SREF ensembles and model forecast soundings suggest CAPE values upwards of 3500 J will exist from Jacksboro NE to Sherman and Durant. 12z Upper Air analysis and wv imagery show another impulse in the mean SWRLY flow aloft across SRN NM to eject out across NWRN TX into C OK by peak heating today. That should provide the neccessary forcing for ascent along the aforementioned boundary to get storms going. 4km NSSL WRF suggests initiation by 21z from Eastland, TX NE thru Decatur to Gainsville. Expect a broken line of storms with embedded supercell structures. Due to the orientation of the wind fields being out of the NE behind the frontal boundary and lack of an identifiable sfc low along the front, not expecting a sig tornado threat. Though adequate CAPE values in the hail growth region suggests baseball hail is likely with any storm along with damaging straight line winds.
After sunset, expect robust isentropic lifting to increase N of the boundary across OK leading to scattered to widespread elevated thunderstorms, esp across C/ERN parts of the state. Elevated CAPE values will be sufficient for storms to become severe overnight.
