Jeff Snyder
EF5
Well...
Looks as if, IF THE GFS VERIFIES, Friday could be a decent chase day across portions of the southern plains. The ETA and GFS have been butting heads for quite some time regarding the position of the upper low over the southern plains. With the ETA farther southwest than the GFS, it keeps the best mid-level wind speeds also southwest, pretty well removed from the warm sector. However, the GFS opens the low into a trough as the central US trough digs southward. Because of it's farther-northeast position, the jet streaks at various levels are much more favorably positioned for a decent severe weather day across se KS, eastern OK, and perhaps ne TX. By this time, some decent Gulf moisture should be in the area, east of the DL and south of the front. Forcing doesn't appear to be too strong with the front, as the cold front nearly halts with a low forming at the front/dl interface. Whatever the case, I'm hoping the GFS can verify and give us a decent chase day across the eastern portions of the southern plains. If the ETA verifies, however, things could be dissappointing. Whatever the case, I'm putting slightly more faith in the GFS, as it has been more consistent run-to-run, and it also gives me hope for a decent chase
At any rate, post away....
Looks as if, IF THE GFS VERIFIES, Friday could be a decent chase day across portions of the southern plains. The ETA and GFS have been butting heads for quite some time regarding the position of the upper low over the southern plains. With the ETA farther southwest than the GFS, it keeps the best mid-level wind speeds also southwest, pretty well removed from the warm sector. However, the GFS opens the low into a trough as the central US trough digs southward. Because of it's farther-northeast position, the jet streaks at various levels are much more favorably positioned for a decent severe weather day across se KS, eastern OK, and perhaps ne TX. By this time, some decent Gulf moisture should be in the area, east of the DL and south of the front. Forcing doesn't appear to be too strong with the front, as the cold front nearly halts with a low forming at the front/dl interface. Whatever the case, I'm hoping the GFS can verify and give us a decent chase day across the eastern portions of the southern plains. If the ETA verifies, however, things could be dissappointing. Whatever the case, I'm putting slightly more faith in the GFS, as it has been more consistent run-to-run, and it also gives me hope for a decent chase
At any rate, post away....