4/29/09 FCST: KS/TX/OK

[Ilya Neyman]

The southeastern 1/3 of the TX panhandle and NW TX look like a good bet today.

1. Very quality moisture is entrenching into the region.
2. Good directional shear and modest-okay speed shear progged.
3. Forecasted upper wave to move into the panhandle during peak heating (mid-late afternoon).
4. Left exit region of jet streak nosing in.
5. Outflow boundary from morning MCS.
6. High instabilities possibly developing.

The corridor from Wichita Falls, TX through Childress SW to Lubbock is probably the area to watch.

 

[Darren Addy]

Will be chasing today with Ryan McGinnis but I'm holding him back since I can't leave Kearney before 4 PM. I'll defer to his superior forecasting and data reading skills, but looking at conditions for the area we can potentially reach, I'd be looking around Hays, KS. Marginal, but I'm hoping for a well-timed big boost from the shortwave. Looks like we are getting the clearing/heating we were needing. Model skew-t looks pretty good for Hays; most of the parameters are decent for supercells and barely into the tornado range, but I'll take any chase day over mowing the lawn every time!

 

[Andrew Stoller]

If I was going to chase the KS target area, I'd want to get further west then Hays. Areas east of the KS/CO border are pretty socked in with cloud cover. The dryline sets up right on the CO/KS border, and with a surface low in southeast CO, there's going to be a dryline punch across southwest KS. Just north of that will be where the best backing winds and moisture convergence will be.

I'd want to be in Tribune or Syracuse about 20Z. In fact, if I can get the rest of my work done in the next 2 hours, I may head out.

 

[James Wilson]

Spot on Andrew ... I few cells have just started poping up along the CO/KS border. I'm in Great Bend heading to Scott City to take alook.

 

[Patrick Martin]

Agree! I have a feeling the best action in KS will be down by the surface low in SW KS. With an MD issued for the area, albeit only the northern part of the MD covers the area, hoping the forcing near the low can get things to pop.

In Colby now, getting ready to drop south on hwy 83 towards Scott City and Garden City.