4/28/06 FCST: TX

[Glen Romine]

Well, you can see in the WV imagery that the upper low has two vorticity centers, one over sw NM and another sweeping more rapidly through the base of the upper low which will be the main player today. The 12Z RUC doesn't seem to have the position of this feature quite right, so I'd be cautious using the upper air features from that model this morning. Looping the sat, it looks like the SW-NE oriented cloud edge is likely to remain quasi-stationary, so I wouldn't want to pick a target southeast of that. Differential heating may actually help to generate a bit of a dryline bulge later today - maybe placing somewhere from Paducah to Childress in a good spot. There is quite a bit of elevated moisture per the OUN 12Z sounding - and very impressive moisture depth at DRT and MAF. Cap strength looks adequate this morning - but 700 mb CAA might be knocking on the door a bit too early. I'm not sure how well the triple point will pan out today - might be too wet close to the low to have much of a chance.

Glen

 

[brody_clifton]

I'm liking the area from Snyder to Aspermont to Abilene to Sterling City for today. The area is just east northeast of a well defined dryline buldge, and assuming the dryline doesn't race through the area too quickly, which it shouldn't, this area should remain 30-50 miles ahead of the dryline at least for a good part of the afternoon. Visible satellite loop for past 4 hours this morning shows the area is clearing of cloud cover from the west, and should see full sun or at least partly cloudy conditions by 2pm CST. Looks like an agitated cumulus field already developing between Lubbock and Abilene. I'm expecting the initial couple of storms to fire just north of the target area, with additional supercells developing southward into the area ENE of the dryline bulge. SPC indicated in lastest MCD that they are unsure of the time of initiation - I'm thinking at least by 2pm CST, if not earlier, with the activity reaching peak intensity between 4pm and 8pm Central time. After that time a linear merger becomes more likely. Wish Abiline had a sounding station, but from guesstimating an avg between the AMA and MAF soundings it looks like there should be just enough of a cap in place to keep things relatively isolated, at worst in small clusters, at least for the first 4-6 hours after initiation. Moisture depth looks good, at least 100mb thick ahead of the dryline and close to 200mb thick farther east towards DFW. Storm motion should be generally northeast, with any right movers moving ENE. NAM forecast sounding for KABI increases both CAPE and helicity drastically between 21Z and 00Z, CAPE from 400 to 1300 J/kg and helicity from 220 to 320 m^2/s^2. 21Z NAM forecasted lapse rates look rather weak, but by 00Z shows a good pocket of cold/dry air advection between 850 and 750 mb, drastically increasing low-mid level CAPE and increasing total CAPE into the moderate range. But ENE of that dryline buldge is where I'd setup today.

Edit: Severe T warning out for convection to the south and to the east of Abilene, but I don't think this activity is part of the main show later, but is resulting from WAA in the area. Hopefully all this early activity and its associated cloud cover will stay well east of the dryline area to help maximize heating and instability later.