Well, there is pretty good potential for supercell develop from far southwestern OK, southwestward into western/central Texas, as a strong upper-level low moves out of the southern NM / northwestern Mexico area. A strong low-level jet (~50-60kts on area VWPs) is currently in place across much of central Texas, which is helping to advect Gulf moisture northwestward. Convection has developed and persisted across the panhandles and eastern NM this evening.
As the low moves east-northeastward tomorrow, strong flow aloft will overspread the expanding warm sector. Widespread, isentropically-developed precipitation will likely be ongoing across much of northern TX and OK by mid-morning. Tonights 0z NAM run does indicate that there will be a
break in the precipitation through 21z, after which time the model
breaks out convection along the dryline. As it stands, my primary concern regarding the chase prospect tomorrow is the potential for persisten cloud-cover and precipitation across the target area, limiting destabilization and leading to poor CAPE. If this occurs, I will probably stay home, but I'll have to anticipate in the morning whether such things will persist through the afternoon. The 0z NAM does show some
significant CAPE developing from near CDS southward at 21z (with SBCAPE to 3000 j/kg), but said CAPE diminishes by 0z as the model turns on convective parameterization. RH progs at 250mb and 500mb indicate that the CDS-SPS area may see some sun by afternoon, but 850mb RH remains high across much of the warm sector, indicating potential cloud-cover.
With 40+kt flow at 850mb and 700mb, 50-70kt flow at 500mb, and 110-120kt flow at 250mb,
deep-layer shear profiles will be quite favorable for long-lived supercells. The 0z NAM indicated a surface low near CDS by 0z, with favorably-backed surface flow across much of the warm sector. This creates strong low-level shear, increasing to the east as one moves away from the dryline. There does appear to be a little gap between the dryline and the western edge of the strong low-level shear (0-1km SRH ~150+ m2/s2), but we'll see if that actually verifies. The backed low-level flow also helps keep
storm motion in the 'favorable' range, with 25-35kt forecast motions for right-moving supercells per the Bunkers method.
I will assess the situation tomorrow morning, obviously. Right now, I'd put my chase probability at 60%. The main reason why I would
not chase tomorrow would involve the anticipation of cloud-cover and precip hanging around much of the day. If this does not occur, I'll likely head southwest towards western north Texas. The NAM progs
one rather significant vort max to be approaching the western north Texas area by 21z, with the leading edge of the vort max near I35 by 0z. This adds a little more complexity, since DPVA and associated upward motion would be over western north Texas in the 18-21z period, before shifting more towards I35 in the 21-23z timeframe.
I'm awaiting some 0z WRF output... All graphics are from wxcaster.com, but I moved some onto my server so I don't waste his bandwidth. Oh yeah, I do think the potential increases southward, and the area between I20 and I10 looks the hottest. However, that is likely out of range tomorrow, so I'm limiting most of my attention to the area north of I20.
