4/27/09 FCST: TX/OK/MO

[Aaron Estman]

I'll start today out. Going to be real short since its 1:33 and I need some sleep.

Central Texas by 12z CAPE 2000-2500 j/kg, 65 +/- dews.

And since im tired and lazy, the SPC has summed it all up for me.

GIVEN TIMING OF NRN MEXICO SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO CENTRAL TX TOWARD
12Z TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY FORM DURING THE
12-15Z TIME FRAME FROM CENTRAL TX INTO SRN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL OK.
THIS SCENARIO APPEARS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRESENCE OF WEAK
SURFACE BASED INHIBITION AT 12Z TODAY SUPPORTING SURFACE BASED
DEVELOPMENT SOON AFTER THE ONSET OF DIABATIC HEATING AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATING FROM CENTRAL TX TO ERN OK WILL
PROMOTE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS ENEWD
INTO ERN OK/WRN AR AND E TX.

Night.

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

I can't load the models for some reason right now, but an hour ago I took a look at the 00z NAM for 21z and noticed a sorta-nice little triple point right around the Wichita Falls region, where it breaks out precip at that time over that area. We elected to stay in Enid this evening due to my not feeling well, and if I'm a bit better in the morning, what else do we have to lose?

 

[Matt Gingery]

I know this is out of the ordinary, but I will be playing the cold front from St. Louis to Tulsa today. I am going to shoot for St. Louis. I think we could get some descent boundary action today. Also along I-44 from Ft. Leonard Wood to Joplin may get active, being at the southern end of the precip this morning could get some clearing and some daytime heating to kick things off. Residual OFB from earlier convection could give us a few of those surprise "TORS". Sort of like the one in Iowa yesterday. After chasing in Roger Mills County Saturday, I think that was the biggest draw that county has ever had. Latest model guidance doesn't support a major tornado threat but I feel that we will see an upgrade to 10% from E. Oklahoma into SW Missouri by later today.

 

[David Wolfson]

There looks like a late window for a few decent supercells and a tornado or two down toward Midland/Big Spring as the moisture returns and upper flow increases from the west. The widespread precip and cloud cover in OK and central/east TX make those areas a literal crapshoot to my eyes. Virtual target: Sterling City, TX, FWIW.

 

[John Farley]

I am watching the areas just south or possibly southeast of the St. Louis area for a possible local chase today. The RUC has around 1000-1500 CAPE and good helicity in this area, with the low pressure building in from the southwest helping to back the surface winds to southerly, providing at least a modicum of directional shear. To get enough instability for good storms, there will have to be some clearing between the two lines of convection now over the MO/IL area. There's a little clear area in southern MO, but little is the key word - I fear that cloudiness will prevent enough instability for what might otherwise happen with the shear. Still, this is one I can watch from home then head out in the appropriate direction if it looks like something interesting is developing. It would be nice if it would cooperate and do something east of the Mississippi River, since the area south and just southwest of St. Louis is truly lousy chase terrain, but that might be asking a bit too much.