4/26/09 NOW: KS/OK/TX/MO

[Mike Peregrine]

We were just in Clinton watching the supercell come through there. It was cycling into a weaker cycle and we don't want to follow, preferring to hang west in clear air and wait for good things to come. There was brief upward motion into the base back there but the gust front took over and we lost interest. We feel like the best is yet to come ... and are more hopeful that today it actually will.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Incidentally, taking a look at mesoscale analysis, parameters are really maxing over Sayre, OK ... LCLs of 750, EHI of 400, with instabilities just to the west in the 3000-3500 j/kg range. Happy to sit right here for a while and let it stew ...

 

[Chad Cowan]

Heading west on I-70 to Junction City where we'll intercept the storms that fired ahead of the line. They've had quite a bit of time to mature but haven't really impressed me yet. Hoping for one to become dominant and take a big right turn.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

Heading south towards the cell in Knox county just south of Crowell. Storm is still getting things together. Hail core is almost maxed out and tops near 50k feet. This storm should enter a really nice area of 0-1 and 0-3 SRH once it crosses into OK near Frederick. Also, there are really nice backed 25kt surface winjds near Frederick with a dewpoint of 64. I look for this storm to get its act together related to tornado potential near the Red River.

 

[Michael P. Morris]

If I were out there right now, I would be keeping a very close eye on that cell just to the west of Shamrock, Texas as it appears to be moving into a very favorable environment for rapid development. The 18Z OUN sounding displays a very distinct kink in the hodograph at the top of the boundary layer, something which has been observed in the past during major tornado outbreaks. Also contributing is the fact that Norman shows a small mid-level capping inversion, coincident with a slight veering of the winds, which is not observed at the Vici profiler, leading me to believe that capping has been all but eliminated in this area. Moisture is bountiful out ahead of the storm as well, with surface winds out of the SSE at 25 kts with 77/64 according to the Mesonet. It will be very interesting to see how this storm plays out in the next hour or so.

 

[jamesmseitz]

We are sitting in Clinton. There is clearing and heating. Not to happy about the winds... There seems to no direction change with height. There is definitely speed change so we will see. Thinking it will happen around 5 to 6 PM

 

[Mike Smith]

Tornado Warning Butler Co., Kansas. The couplet went right over Andover! The couplet is now NW of El Dorado moving NE.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Pulling the trigger on the stuff coming up out of NW Texas. It's moving into a good environment and is isolated. Lots of stuff out to the west looks like a disappointment from here. Wondering if there are UL issues or cap problems (or lack thereof). Anyway, decided it was time to move.

 

[James Wilson]

I'm tracking the same tornado warned cell just southwest of Emporia Mike.

 

[John Peters]

My thinking is that future outlooks will shift higher tornado potentials further south and west into E tx panhandle and S along the dryline as the LLJ kicks in enhancing LL SRH values over this area. Frontagenetic forcing seems to be contributing to a messy MCS further north that should inhibit the chances for discrete mesos further north - i'm a little bit confused as to why Meso discussions are conveying a continued strong tornado threat further north along the developing squall line.

Edit: rotation intensifying on the storm to the east of fort stockton TX. Funny that this is the best looking cell out there, and it doesn't even seem to be within a convective outlook at all (maybe right along the W edge).

 

[Heidi Farrar]

I just talked to Dick McGowan and Verne Carlson (chasing separately). They report that a beautiful white elephant trunk tornado has crossed 100 yards in front of them, tearing up trees with sheet metal and other debris in the air. They are on the Ellis/Roger Mills Co. storm.

Edit: Brian Emfinger reports a large multi-vortex cone from the same storm.

 

[Michael P. Morris]

KOCO-TV has corroborated the tornado report from Roger Mills County, and a few minutes ago showed some footage of another significant lowering, if not another tornado. It does appear to be taking more of a line/LEWP structure so I would not be surprised if the tornado threat begins to diminish soon.

I am also keeping my eye on that storm that is crossing the Red River into SW Oklahoma right now, but it is being kept in check by weaker wind profiles and a unidirectional shear vector. If it throws off a split soon, though, it could spell some trouble for people in the area south of Lawton, right along the river.

 

[Chris Bethurum]

In Woodward. Anyone want to predict how far southeast the rotation will pass and when? Hearing on local news tornado is on the ground.

Thinking about heading southeast on 281 about 20 miles to a hill with a transmission tower on it. Hopefully lightning will hit that and not me. Thoughts?

 

[cstrunk]

Trained weather spotters are observing a tornado with the supercell located just north of Cedar Rapids, IA.

 

[Richard Dickson]

Woodward Question

Chris,

It looks like the main cell will pass about 15 miles se of Woodward. It you are headed to a location 20 miles se, I'm not sure you would have time to make it without becoming a target yourself.