4/26/09 NOW: KS/OK/TX/MO

[Michael O'Keeffe]

A tornado watch has been issued for much of C Kansas until 1pm today. Nice looks supercells riding the warm front near Great Bend could produce. We may need to be on the road soon!

 

[Chris Hayes]

A line appears to be forming from the OK PH all the way to the Nebraska border. I'm starting to wonder if a grunge fest is forming that could mess it up for this afternoon. I was happy to see that a larger complex didnt form from last night's storms, now we have this developing. hmmm

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

New MD issued for TX Pan and far W OK. Mentioning initiation by mid-morning with threat of supercells with main threats large hail and damaging winds initially. The RUC was indicating this last night and I put that into account, but it stayed fairly isolated near I40 and actually looked like some decent storms to chase.

Edit: I wouldn't be to concerned with what is happening in the OK Pan into Kansas, this typical for these big outbreak days. That line in the OK Panhandle won't extend much further south than where it already is because it is forming along a cold front that extends to the west across the far N TX Pan and it is moving NE. Most of the TX Pan/W OK should remain high and dry for the next several hours as the dryline begins to firm up!

 

[Chris Hayes]

Well, I went to brekfast and came back and looked at the radar and was pleased to see that the line that was forming has become really broken up. Now, hopefully the crap in Kansas doesnt prevent too big of a cirrus shield

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

SWW warning in SE Nebraska

A severe thunderstorm warning went up for Douglas and Cass counties in Nebraska. The storms were 19 miles SW of Omaha NE with quarter sized hail. Judging from the current KS storm direction, SE Nebraska will be involved in more storms later today. LJK.

EDIT: Thunderstorm warnings have been extended to Potowattamie and Mills counties in IA.

EDIT: SPC posted a SWW for SE Nebraska and NW Iowa. The storms just keeps coming!!

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

Wow Mesoanalysis is crazy for 10 AM in the morning!!!! Cape already up to 2500 in NC. OK SIG TOR up to 4.... Supercell Comp. 22 I believe, atleast over 20+ ..... DP 64+ its only 10!!!!

 

[Eric Treece]

Looks like things are blossoming down the line and heading on down the line into the panhandle regions. Is THIS the beginning of the main event? Or is this the opening act of the big show?

 

[John Wetter]

Upgrade to High Risk coming at 1630Z: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0579.html

 

[Andrew Francis]

Not liking the initiation going on all over W OK right now. Looking pretty raggedy, Maybe we can get this wave of stuff cleared out and have a good group of supercells to track later this evening. Hmmm

 

[Michael P. Morris]

I wouldn't be too worried about the W. Oklahoma stuff for now, as it looks like it's high based and isn't modifying the boundary layer too much in its wake (see 74/65 at Chickasha vs. 72/65 at Hobart). The wind field appears to be a little veered behind this stuff but not by mch, but that should correct itself in response to the approaching low.

Sucks that Albuquerque's sounding didn't happen this morning. It would be nice to be able to fill that portion of the wind field.

 

[John Wetter]

Sucks that Albuquerque's sounding didn't happen this morning. It would be nice to be able to fill that portion of the wind field.

Good thing they funded the profilers this year! I'll be keeping a close eye on them today.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Nice western push of dryline in progress... disturbance in far eastern NM visible on latest Sat. Image. Looks like secondary gravity wave exiting SE CO, r.e.: altostratus undulatus. Nice break in clouds -- may have prevented early turnover west. Things could get interesting soon. Target NE Texas panhandle into Gage area.

W.

 

[Adam Atkins]

I wouldn't be too worried about the W. Oklahoma stuff for now, as it looks like it's high based and isn't modifying the boundary layer too much in its wake (see 74/65 at Chickasha vs. 72/65 at Hobart). The wind field appears to be a little veered behind this stuff but not by mch, but that should correct itself in response to the approaching low.

Sucks that Albuquerque's sounding didn't happen this morning. It would be nice to be able to fill that portion of the wind field.

I'm going to have to agree with Michael. The main show will likely occur in the wake of this initial activity. Widespread convection this early afternoon would likely be attributed to the large scale lift in the right entrance region of the upper jet. Stronger instability later this afternoon should develop once the elevated t-storms exit E TX/W OK. Surface convergence has increased between PPA and AMA as mixing near the dryline is enhanced by insolation. Watch for TCU in that vicinity in the next ~2 hours! It's my nowcast target...even though Seattle armchair chasing will have to do today

 

[Andrew Francis]

cell north of Altus, OK has really wrapped up!

It's about to just engulf Bill Tabor and them


EDIT: There it goes TOR Warned north of Mangum

 

[Warren Faidley]

I'm going to have to agree with Michael. The main show will likely occur in the wake of this initial activity. Widespread convection this early afternoon would likely be attributed to the large scale lift in the right entrance region of the upper jet. Stronger instability later this afternoon should develop once the elevated t-storms exit E TX/W OK. Surface convergence has increased between PPA and AMA as mixing near the dryline is enhanced by insolation. Watch for TCU in that vicinity in the next ~2 hours! It's my nowcast target...even though Seattle armchair chasing will have to do today

Agreed! There are multiple outflow boundaries visible on high res. sat. Moving west. They should be interacting with the western elements soon, now in far western Texas. This set-up reminds me of the famous Lazbuddie, TX multi-tornado "carousel" event years ago.

W.