Amos Magliocco
EF5
I couldn't help but steal a glance at the setup today and I think it looks like the best of the week.
You finally have serious moisture streaming into the target area (upper 60 dewpoints and robust soundings downstream) and your temperatures are milder due to the precip/cloud cover/cold pools leftover from yesterday. LCL's are between 600-800mb around SPS to Throckmorton. Aloft, impressive height falls and cold midlevel air is nudging into northwest Texas which should provide you with all the instability you need to get parcels to rocket skyward. You have impressive vorticity advection as well.
With the abundance of boundaries, juiced air, and steep lapse rates, I think you have more than sufficient low level shear for tornadoes, particularly along outflow boundaries where you'll have the added advantage of long segments of streamwise horizontal vorticity. My guess is that even if tornadoes are not monstrously huge, owing to the less-than-perfect organization of the storms via weak low level winds, any meso moving along a boundary COULD last a while due to this ingestion of enhanced SHV.
I think this is the most impressive setup of the week, and what a week it has been. I'd be hightailing it for SPS pronto. But since I live in Indiana and I have a term paper, a take home final, a story revision, and 13 student portfolios to complete in seven days, I'm hightailing it to a cave somewhere so I can work my rear end off.
Good luck to all who go.
You finally have serious moisture streaming into the target area (upper 60 dewpoints and robust soundings downstream) and your temperatures are milder due to the precip/cloud cover/cold pools leftover from yesterday. LCL's are between 600-800mb around SPS to Throckmorton. Aloft, impressive height falls and cold midlevel air is nudging into northwest Texas which should provide you with all the instability you need to get parcels to rocket skyward. You have impressive vorticity advection as well.
With the abundance of boundaries, juiced air, and steep lapse rates, I think you have more than sufficient low level shear for tornadoes, particularly along outflow boundaries where you'll have the added advantage of long segments of streamwise horizontal vorticity. My guess is that even if tornadoes are not monstrously huge, owing to the less-than-perfect organization of the storms via weak low level winds, any meso moving along a boundary COULD last a while due to this ingestion of enhanced SHV.
I think this is the most impressive setup of the week, and what a week it has been. I'd be hightailing it for SPS pronto. But since I live in Indiana and I have a term paper, a take home final, a story revision, and 13 student portfolios to complete in seven days, I'm hightailing it to a cave somewhere so I can work my rear end off.
Good luck to all who go.
