What was likely my last chase day of 2024 ends with a blue sky bust.
Obviously this day does not justify a Reports thread, so I'll just post here instead.
Many of us are probably subject to wish-casting to some degree. Every time I see a mesoscale setup with 70s dewpoints and extreme instability in OK, I fantasize about an El Reno type of event (minus the tragedies of course), since I did not chase that day. I had that, and redemption for missing this year's Eldorado day, in mind as I looked at analysis, saw SPC's mention of a possible strong tornado, and read the increasing concern in NWS Norman's midday AFD.
Thanks to
@Ben Holcomb and
@Sean Ramsey - due to their posts above, I stuck to my Quanah target and stopped second-guessing myself just because the HRRR had begun showing an intense supercell southeast of Pampa. This at least saved me some needless driving. I left Childress, hung out in Quanah, and a couple of precipitation echoes began at ~5pm CDT, one near Hollis OK and one right over my head in Quanah. Initial motion was NE, although expected to be S/SE for mature cells. Given that these initial echoes were initiating so close and would be shifting E of my longitude, I repositioned to Vernon so that I could give things time to develop and then move into OK from there if needed.
Not too far east of Quanah, there was no Cu field. The initial cells had evaporated. We hung out in Vernon until around 7pm, when we decided the only play was to head toward the severe-warned storm in Clarendon - which actually had initiated not too far from where at least one or two runs of the HRRR had shown it. Backtracking along our original route, unfortunately in the opposite direction of Dallas where we are departing from, we drove only about 15 minutes before the storm began weakening and quickly lost its severe warning and faded to nothing.
We stopped around 7:20 to consider our next move, when an SPC MSD discussion for the area popped up on RadarScope - #1156, issued at 7:22pm CDT - "...latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Amarillo shows multiple isolated severe storms ongoing across the central and eastern Texas Panhandle." WTF?!? There were NO ongoing storms or warnings at that time! Clearly the MSD was drafted a little earlier, but there were never more than two or three storms, which I suppose technically is "multiple" but in my view the MSD way overrated the situation as of the time it was issued.
It was clear we were capped out (pun initially unintended, but now intentionally left upon editing
), and even NWS Norman in their evening AFD said their focus on severe potential had now shifted to overnight development in central OK. Surprised that overcoming the cap, especially while conceding that large-scale forcing was absent, was never mentioned as a potential failure mode by SPC or NWS Norman.
A disappointing last chase day to say the least, especially after the earlier expectations. On the bright side, at least it wasn't a huge positioning drive. Now in Wichita Falls and heading to DFW this evening for tomorrow's flight home.
