4/23/04 FCST: TX/OK

mrobinson

looks to be another active weather day. Discuss your forecasts here.
 
If the 0z ETA is to be believed, I think the best tornado potential will lie along the front from maybe ADM west-southwest to south of Wichita Falls and near Seymour. 2000-3000 CAPEs and ~50kt 0-6km shear will support decent supercells. Any storms that can track along the front will be able to utilize the enhanced helicity near the front. Winds at all levels are unimpressive to say the least, but speed/direction still sufficient for aforementioned deep-layer shear. Right now. I'd think somewhere near Wichita Falls for initiation. I've chased the past two days, and have a few things to get done. Therefore, I don't know if I'm going to head southwest yet unless things look a little more impressive. I've seen several very nice supercells thus far this year, but they've produce nothing more than brief, weak tornadoes... Better than nothing, but something other than an up-and-downer would be nice lol.'

Important to note is the difference between ETA and RUC progs for tomorrow. If the RUC verifies, it appears (through extrapolation) that the 500/700mb jet streak will move out of se NM or sw TX and near the frontal boundary by afternoon. The ETA keeps most of the signficant instability south of the Red River tomorrow, while the RUC builds 1000-1500 by 15z across almost all of OK. I don't currently see any signficant convective complex hinted at by the OUN pm AFD which could push the front southward more towards the Red River. Therefore, it seems that the RUC may be slightly preferred. Then again, I'd prefer it to begin with since it looks more favorable for tomorrow.
 
The two things that stick out in my forecast that make today more promising than Wednesday and Thursday are considerably better
LCLs and at least decent shear. I just hope the CAPE is better
than forecast on my 18z ruc for SPS.
Best of all: slow supercells in the middle of the afternoon!
worst of all: eta suggests it may be grungy this afternoon :roll:
 
I just saw this in the San Angelo, TX (SJT) AFD. I would say the forecasters are optimistic to say the least. 8)

CURRENT...COLD FRONT HAS SNEAKED INTO THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. PERSISTENT SUPERCELL DEVELOPED ON BOUNDARY EAST OF THROCKMORTON COUNTY YESTERDAY EVENING. CELL FINALLY DISSIPATED AROUND 1 AM CDT. WRITING ON WALL. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPIN LIKE A TOP. PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DEWPOINTS IMPRESSIVE AT THIS HOUR...IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AREAWIDE.
 
Time to Go Chasing in TX

Good Morning,

While you gulp down your morning coffee and cinnamon rolls, I will tell you about my Target Area for today...west central Texas.

Here's the basis of my forecast after looking at the SPC:

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TX AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OK...

FARTHER SOUTH...ENHANCED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED FROM PORTIONS OF NWRN TX INTO SRN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FCST TO sTRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER RH IS FCST TO ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL NEAR DRYLINE/FRONTAL INTERSECTION ...AND PERHAPS EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM ABI AREA TO THE RED RIVER IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME.

There you have it folks. Have fun in Texas today. Be Safe!! 8) LJK.
 
If anyone has a tornado or promising wall cloud within 50 miles of SPS, give us a call at 940-322-1153. We may interview you over the phone.
 
I will be heading down to the area WSW of Wichita Falls with a data stop in childress (gotta love free wifi) for a target update. The cloud cover isnt helping my enthusiasm but there should be a few breaks for some heating east of the dryline. Just have to find those magical places.
 
The good news is the moisture has really established itself. But two major problems will have to be overcome today: 0-1 km shear looks pretty weak, and anvil-level winds look quite weak: SW 40-50 kts at 250 mb. Storm motion will be 240/20 so that's only 20-30 kts of anvil-level storm-relative flow. Very strong synoptic forcing should lead to lots of storms along the front. I don't think the CAPE will be large enough to balance all the wet/cold downdrafts these storms will be producing.

My target would be Ardmore, but I think tornado chances have gone down today, so I'll probably not cancel my evening plans.
 
I agree with Kevin. To me, winds look weak above 850mb period. There is good directional shear, but the absolute speeds just seem weak. with that in mind, as well as slighty weaker instability than yesterday, I think I'm going to sit this one out. Hopefully I can get everything done this weekend while we're ridged out, and be ready for mid-late next week when the GFS brings the next trough/low into the west. Hopefully this current system progged to come out tomorrow doesn't wipe dry the Gulf...
 
My concerns about today pretty much match Kevin's. The low-level shear isn't particularly impressive, and with the mean flow running parallel to the boundary, training storms look likely. This happened yesterday in NW TX, and once several storms got going, it was all cold outflow. Biggest differences today are that the setup looks even less favorable for supercells AND storm coverage looks to be even more widespread.

And, there's also the cloud cover. The warm sector is socked in this morning - much more than the past couple of days - and unless it starts clearing my midday, it's going to have a noticeable impact on instability. Today's storms might be on the mushy side from the get-go.

My target would be around Wichita Falls, which is a short enough drive. But I have enough concerns to where I'd rather stick around at home and monitor things as they develop. I've seen some good supercells the past couple of days, so I'm not exactly itching to hit the road. Besides, I'm nursing some sore muscles (I must have done something Wednesday up in OK), and sitting down for long periods just makes the pain worse, so a third day of driving/riding doesn't sound all that appealing right now.

It's in my own backyard, though, so I'll be watching. And looking forward to tonight's MCS...we need the rain.
 
My target is Windthorst, TX attm. I'm not worried about models/conditions.etc etc anymore. I spent the past three days analyzing my ass off only to end up nowhere near initiation or anything tornadic. So today I'm gonna do what I do best - just go.

I don't recall anyone (except maybe locals) targeting the Tulsa area yesterday specifically; it's obvious that anything can happen out there. As Kevin said about yesterday (and was, consequently, correct): "accidents" happen. Tulsa was one of those.

I think NW TX along the boundary will be another one. If cloud cover isn't well underway along/south of the front as we approach SPS, I may shift target SW, south of the boundary/dryline intersection. This week has all but drained me financially, so why not go for it one last time? Will be the last chance for a while.

Besides, I'm still stuck in what has become known as "the black week of April," during which (as of this writing) I've missed out on tornadoes Mon-Thu. A miss today would complete a solid work week of failure, my most-impressive (or depressive) ever.

Granted, I had to work Monday and Tuesday we broke down just an hour into the chase, but misses are misses. Today, I attempt to right this wretched vessel (fate) that's kept me shutout in April for 5 years.
 
My gut is telling me to go out there today, but I don't think I'm going to listen to that. Right now I've gotten close on Wednesday, saw nothing but crap yesterday, so I can only guess what today will bring. With that said, I'd probably head south on 81 to 82 and use that highway as my running highway. Shear looks weak and the clouds are holding strong, I don't think today will be very good. But then again, like Shane said, anything is possible, so I'll probably wait until later in the day to make my decision.
 
NOW Thread posted for 04/24/04 KS OK TX

A NOW Thread has been posted for severe storms occurring in southern KS. Five ST warnings have issued in KS and one for OK had expired.

Did anybody anticipate storm action this early in the day and so far north of the anticipated Medium Risk for Severe Weather areas as predicted by SPC??

:roll: LJK.
 
I do still like the area near and west of Wichita Falls - - - some heavy convergence already, shear is present, but looks weak. Nice clear air there right now too - off the cuff I'd judge it as marginal for tornadoes, but likely for SVR.
 
I couldn't help but steal a glance at the setup today and I think it looks like the best of the week.

You finally have serious moisture streaming into the target area (upper 60 dewpoints and robust soundings downstream) and your temperatures are milder due to the precip/cloud cover/cold pools leftover from yesterday. LCL's are between 600-800mb around SPS to Throckmorton. Aloft, impressive height falls and cold midlevel air is nudging into northwest Texas which should provide you with all the instability you need to get parcels to rocket skyward. You have impressive vorticity advection as well.

With the abundance of boundaries, juiced air, and steep lapse rates, I think you have more than sufficient low level shear for tornadoes, particularly along outflow boundaries where you'll have the added advantage of long segments of streamwise horizontal vorticity. My guess is that even if tornadoes are not monstrously huge, owing to the less-than-perfect organization of the storms via weak low level winds, any meso moving along a boundary COULD last a while due to this ingestion of enhanced SHV.

I think this is the most impressive setup of the week, and what a week it has been. I'd be hightailing it for SPS pronto. But since I live in Indiana and I have a term paper, a take home final, a story revision, and 13 student portfolios to complete in seven days, I'm hightailing it to a cave somewhere so I can work my rear end off.

Good luck to all who go.
 
I kept looking at that overlay link I posted from UCAR thinking, this satellite doesn't look right - why aren't those storms in KS showing up better ... then realized that image is two days old, though I think the metar and other info is right. So I take back my comment about clear air ... still a good-looking CU-field ...
 
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