4/21/07 FCST: OK / KS / TX / NE

[Shane Hale]

Morning to all,
Tony and I are about in Post,TX trying to decide if further north to the Plainview area is warrantied. After looking at some of the latest data I believe the better winds will be more to the north, but the 4km WRF looks to have a initiation around 22-23z invof LBB as well as better dew points. If someone has any insights as to more of a reason to head north I'm open to suggestions.

 

[David Wolfson]

I'm uneasy at the combination of capping with mediocre dews, mega-forcing, and the fast moving system maintaining discrete storms below the northern TX panhandle. The cranking surface low in se CO hopefully will slow and back the dryline advance a bit giving storms a better shot at staying ahead. The basic parameters seem about as good up in sw KS anyway. Virtual target: Ulysses, KS.

 

[Billy Griffin]

Made my initial target of McLean, TX. Time now is 11:10am.
Current conditions here are drizzle and fog. Temp 58, DP 56.
Looks like some of the cloud deck is trying to erode. Winds are nice, southeast at about 21.

Think I'll track on west to Amarillo and then decide options north or south as needed. Challenging day to pick that magic point.

 

[Ryan Pfannkuch]

playing north of the Panhandles

2-county target area in eastern CO: Cheyenne and Kiowa.
Including the cities of: Cheyenne Wells, Kit Carson and Eads

After holing up in Goodland for the night...I have decided to forego any thoughts of blasting south into TX...and will take my chances with a more northern target. 12z/15z RUC depicts surface winds backing along the KS/CO border as the sfc low deepens this afternoon...which should pull a decent amount of instability westward into CO in the region just E to ENE of the main surface low. With the low nearby...a localized area of sfc convergence between the SSE and ESE winds will likely set up over east central CO. This area will also be on the "nose" of the mid-level speed max around 0z. The more I look things over, the more I like the idea of setting up E to ENE of the main sfc low. I didn't think I would be targeting this far west...but much like on March 28...the continual westward progression of the sfc features as the event nears is impossible to ignore.

In summary, otherthan the usual questions about boundary orientation vs. shear vectors farther north, I am seeing a lot of instability/shear parameters looking relatively favorable up and down the DL...so I see no reason to turn my back on this area today...especially with the sfc low nearby.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Pueblo CO NWS office is now saying the severe threat will be more northward into southeast CO, with a threat for a few tornadoes and anticipation of a tornado watch by early afternoon. RUC breaks out precipitation right over......................Holly CO by afternoon. RUC has 2500-3000 J/Kg cape and a 994 mb low centered at about Rocky Ford CO. I will be targeting just east of there. Think I'll head for.........................Holly!

 

[Donald Giuliano]

Am getting more interested in SE CO/OK panhandle/SW KS, as all the models seem to be indicating that the dryline will bend back to the NW through there, and the low-level flow is supposed to back considerably more than was originally forecast. So NNE storm motions up there appear to be much less of a problem now, and less likely to go linear. The TX panhandle still looks good, as well, especially since it seems the system will hang back just a tad and not blast the dryline out so quickly.

So, heading up the northwest passage to Boise City, and can always go north or south from there. Good luck to all!

 

[Darren Addy]

Not a lot of people talking about the northern part of this target. Ryan McGinnis is taking me along on his way west, this morning. I'm a newbie at forecasting, but I know that the higher we go in elevation the higher the "effective" Tds are, so mid-50's would be plenty to get things going where the cap breaks (near the KS-NE border). Storm motion to the NE should run into even moister air as it goes that direction. By nightfall, I'm expecting us to be back up in the area between Ogallala and North Platte as the projected CAPE up there looks wonderful (though if I had to guess, I'd put the start of our chase between Colby, KS & McCook.

This will be my first chase in the western part of NE and Ryan tells me the roads out there can blow. I'd love to hear more from anybody else looking at the northern part of the target area.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

I think the northern target could ge quite good, as the surface low moves northeast across eastern CO. The winds will back considerably east of the surface low. SPC mentions the possibility of strong tornadoes in western Nebraska.

 

[Brian Emfinger]

We are about 50 miles East of Amarillo heading West and currently experiencing upper 50 temps and lower 50 dews with fog and drizzle!... that wasnt exactly expected. Pondering heading towards more extreme NW Texas Panhandle area as opposed to earlier target of West of Plainview, Tx. 16Z RUC showing precip breaking out there by 21z with nothing showing up further south till sometime near 0z..

 

[Billy Griffin]

Sitting here at the Flyin' J in Amarillo. Skies are beginning to clear and south/southeast winds are screaming at 25+. Taking a look at WV imagery, looks like that low is beginning to turn NE as it enters New Mexico. I'm still putting odds on the TX panhandle to go nuts in a few hours.

 

[Jim Bishop]

Sitting in Plainview, TX. Surface winds are backing more towards Amarillo. But the dryline bulge forecast by the RUC should initiate convection from near Lubbock northward to Amarillo. In that region I believe the storm motion will be most perpendicular to the dryline. However I'm becoming concerned about the cap and the upper system going a bit further north than expected. Waiting for 18z soundings to make a decision whether I'm going to head towards Amarillo or stay put.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

We are sitting at the Flying J in Amarillo. Here with Russell Parson, Joey Ketcham and Mike Scantlin. I am starting to like the area just northwest of here in the nw Texas panhandle as the low comes close to this area where winds may back a bit more. Also looking at the RUC the CAPE values look good in the northern Texas panhandle at around 2,000 J/kg. RUC also shows precip. breaking out here by 4-5 pm. Helicity is also better in this area and I don't really that the dewpoints will be all that much higher in the southern Texas panhandle. The RUC also puts a bit tighter of a dryline in the extreme nw Texas panhandle. Plan is to stay here and look at the SPC mesoanalysis page and keep an eye on surface winds, dewpoints, and the location of the low and dryline.

 

[Billy Griffin]

Looking at WV imagery again, and I can now see both the surface low and upper low clearly. The surface low appears to be wrapping up rather nicely as it moves into southwest Colorado. The other area of interest is the upper low and associated trough now digging into New Mexico, near Silver City.

There appears to be two very distinct areas where focus of intiation should be... 1. near the surface low over the high plains of Colorado, western Kansas and western Nebraska.
2. The dryline and upper low interaction, which appears to put a bullseye over the northern TX panhandle!

Mostly sunny here in AMA currently, but with broken cu. Winds seem to be backing, slightly, and I would anticipate this as the upper system moves northeast. Just going to sit right here (AMA) for now. With good south / north options, just waiting for a more clear target.

 

[Brian McKibben]

SFC winds are backing near and north of AMA. And to the west of the low level cloud deck, SBCAPE has already just up to the 2000j/kg range. As the upper low moves in the shear looks to get a bit better. RUC breaks out supercells overtop of AMA around 22/23Z. Things could be interesting. I would target the area around AMA for now.

B Mac

 

[Ray Walker]

We are currently sittin in claude Tx SE of amarilo. We are heading in the direction of Amarillo right now. I think that we will end up moving south later on but who know. Winds are out of the SE at about 20mph were we are at with broken low clouds.