Currently waiting at the Dean Motel (?) on the west side of Amarillo, poring over data as I type. Both the WRF and RUC are in good agreement with initial development just to our NW, with rapid development by 0Z along the dryline from SE CO all the way down towards Lubbock. No signs of an agitated Cu field on visible yet, but the dryline is rapidly approaching the western edge of the Panhandle as per the surface dewpoint observation at Tucumcari.
Midlevel winds do not look favorable at this time with a distinct S-shaped hodograph, but upstream at White Sands they are observing 60+ knots of 0-6 km shear, oriented in a roughly SW-NE fashion, which hopefully will interact favorably with the progged dryline bulge and allow for more discrete development here pretty soon. On the other hand, Tucumcari has the S-shaped hodograph that I don't want to see right now but the ejecting impulse appears to be on a favorable track to bring it right over Amarillo by 0Z.
I think we are going to fill up the tank and probably sit tight for at least another 45 minutes unless we see some more development. If anything we may head just a bit west of town.
Midlevel winds do not look favorable at this time with a distinct S-shaped hodograph, but upstream at White Sands they are observing 60+ knots of 0-6 km shear, oriented in a roughly SW-NE fashion, which hopefully will interact favorably with the progged dryline bulge and allow for more discrete development here pretty soon. On the other hand, Tucumcari has the S-shaped hodograph that I don't want to see right now but the ejecting impulse appears to be on a favorable track to bring it right over Amarillo by 0Z.
I think we are going to fill up the tank and probably sit tight for at least another 45 minutes unless we see some more development. If anything we may head just a bit west of town.
