4/16/08 FCST: TX/OK/KS

[Jason Boggs]

Well, I guess the next system to possibly give us some chase fun may be this coming Wednesday.

A strong 998 low is forecast to drift into NE New Mexico during the day. This will bring moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the region with Td forecast to be in the mid to upper 50's according to the latest GFS model. The dryline looks to set up in the extreme eastern TX panhandle or just along the border during the day. One fly in the ointment is the lackluster winds in the upper levels. The 300mb winds are only progged to be in the neighborhood of 60-80 kts. The 500mb winds look better with values of 40-50 kts. Southerly 850 winds look really good with values around 40 kts in the afternoon and strengthening to around 50kts as the LLJ kicks in during the late evening. The cap might become a factor as warm winds from the desert flow NE during the afternoon. 700 temps look to be around 8 degrees Celsius which might turn out to be a good thing. Hopefully we can get some energy built up under the cap which may lead to explosive, isolated T-storm formation. As far as things look at the moment, I see a lot more positive things to note than negative things. It will obviously become clearer as things transpire, and Wednesday closes in. Just for the heck of it, Woodward, OK is my target at the moment.

 

[Robert Rohloff]

Jason, I hope your right and we start to see some Td's back, with a freeze warning here in the Tulsa area the next two nights and Td's in the 20's I think this last system knocked the mositure all the way to Yucatan..........On the other hand I have driven in enough flooding rain in the last couple of weeks I am thinking of investing in an air boat.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

Well that dog just ain't gonna hunt...
Sorry, I've been waiting for a chance to say that. It's one of my favorite sayings. The gulf is in the process of getting clobbered as we speak. Even though the GFS has been consistent in developing a very strong LLJ as early as Tuesday morning, trajectories aren't favorable for quality moisture return until Wednesday morning when we start to tap into the southern gulf. I just don't see any possible way to get good enough moisture for tornadoes up here by Wednesday (maybe good enough for severe storms). It's a damn shame too because if the GFS is telling the truth, great directional shear and >40kts at 850mb has tornadoes written all over it. It just isn't going to happen though.
We should have slightly better moisture on Thursday (I'm thinking upper 50's) and with a stacked closed low setup we may get some cold core tornadoes. I hope not because I screw cold core chases up like it's my job. I would say we would have a chance along the dryline on Thursday, but with a stacked low/virtually no directional shear combined with mediocre moisture at best, I just don't see much of a tornado threat developing. So basically I'm not very excited about this setup.
I am excited about the trough that should come through in the 20th to 23rd time frame. This system (assuming it materializes) should have high quality moisture to work with and right now I'm thinking that is our next chance for good tornadoes. I posted more on both of these systems here if you're interested http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog.html

 

[Tim Marshall]

Agree with Mikey that surface moisture will be a problem WED. TM

 

[Jim Leonard]

I see one big fly in the ointment is the location of this cutoff low off the south atlantic coast for most of this coming week. The low level winds over the eastern half of the GOM will be northeast The rich tropical moisture from the Caribbean won't be tapped in time for this system.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Although it looks fairly dry at LL....there is an outside chance of something popping across SW/C Kansas as a wave brushes by ahead of the main upper system. Anything that does form should remain isolated and fairly high based Wed. evening/night.

 

[Rodney Price]

Dewpoints are only near 50 degrees at buoy stations 42001 and 42002 in the western Gulf near 25 deg N this morning.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/WestGulf.shtml

 

[Bill Schintler]

Chase Target for Wednesday, April 16

Chase target:
Wellsford, KS (on US 54 between Pratt and Greensburg).

Timing and storm mode:
Medium to high-based storms will develop in the target area at 7 PM CDT. Supercell storms with hail to nickel size will be possible. Storms will increase in coverage after dark.

Synopsis:
Strong moisture advection is underway in the SRN Plains courtesy of a 40kt SRLY LLJ. SFC observations and soundings continue to indicate large dewpoint depressions of 15-20C throughout a 850mb-thick mixed-layer E of a DL analyzed along a line 30 mi E of the TX/NM border.

Discussion:
Needless to say, availability of LLVL moisture will be a primary concern on Wednesday. However, a narrow axis of CAPE should be present, owing mainly to steep mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5C/km on top of a 100mb-deep moist layer with SFC dewpoints AOA 55F. Backing SFC flow in response to a wave along the CF and a DL/CF triple point should provide the focus for initiation in a moderately capped environment as temperatures W of the DL rise into the low 80’s while a compact 55kt H5 streak provides additional lift. A LLJ increasing to 60kts will aid in the maintenance of the storm complex into the overnight hours.

- Bill
9:00 PM CDT, 04/15/08

 

[Fritz Kruse]

Could be a surprise in northwestern OK along dry line later this afternoon. Excellent shear profiles but dewpoints only in the mid to upper 50s. Still with progged CAPE around 1500 J/Kg we could see some rotators. LLJ also kicks up after sunset.

Edit: Vance 88D is down, so this alone will produce severe storms in that area...ha!