4/13/07 NOW: TX/OK

[Tim Vasquez]

I think right now we've reached a crossroads for convective modes, as the Roswell Express has caught up to all of the remaining convection (perhaps outrunning the upper support), and there has been a profound lack of initiation elsewhere.

Unless there's something I'm not seeing in the data, I really think we're looking at a line of outflowish junk from here on out. Gusty winds are a given, due to postfrontal winds coupled with storm outflow. However I'll cross my fingers for some sort of surprise, providing it stays out in the hay fields around Fort Worth, and maybe the system will teach me what a fast-moving front can do. This system could turn out to be like 4/25/94 with the Lancaster TX tornado, but when that happened we didn't have any 50 mph front involved. I'm really curious to see how this pans out.

Tim

 

[Glen Romine]

Well, the warm sector could start to zipper closed in rather short order leaving an elevated squall line ripping across the north. Sunshine is working the air over the DFW area - though the clearing maybe is from some subsidence leading the current convection as the cloud streets look rather stable. maybe it just needs more time - but not too much more with that surface 'jet' of cold air coming.

Edit: I see Tim and I are battling banjos today - see above.

 

[Glen Romine]

I'll add that the cell in southeast Stephens county has turned right strong enough that it *may* have just enough rightward motion to keep it ahead of the front for a little while. There is probably a boundary in there somewhere between SEP and MWL - so I give this the best shot right now.

[edit]Ok - nevermind - it looks undercut too. And as for below - Wowser.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Wedge tornado 3 miles southeast of Seymore, TX at 2:40pm CDT.

 

[John Peters]

Tony, that tornado looks rather large (massive). Does this correspond to the NWS storm report of a brief touchdown 9 miles northwest of Haskell?

 

[Karen Politte]

Congrats Tony and nice to think that I was - at least - virtually there on the storm. It wasn't just radar eye-candy......

If anybody has any radar grabs of this storm - could you please post them somewhere or e-mail me them?? I took some grabs while at work so I could salivate over them at home here, and then promptly forgot to send them to home before I left the office.

KL

 

[Terry Tyler]

thats an outstanding shot, tony...i knew there was something like that down there from the look of those reflectivity scans...

 

[Trey Atterbury]

Just letting everyone know im on the storm near Palo Pinto hoping it gets its act together.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

All I can say is wow. It looks like the meso was so loow you would of had to be that close in order to see the actualy tornado itself. The storm looked incredible on radar the whole time.

 

[David Wolfson]

Wow! Good catch, Tony! Anyway... am virtually heading south toward Mineral Wells after camping awhile in Perrin. Giving up on the linear stuff further north. The storm southwest of me near Caddo looks like it's better rooted and moving a bit right.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Some notes as of 2130 UTC:

* The Roswell Express is losing steam... postfrontal winds are down to 25 kt from 35 kt earlier. This is a positive development (well, positive for storms).

* My analyses from earlier suggest that the Seymour storm (great catch) was being fed by 60-61F dewpoints. Currently, dewpoints are 66F at MWL and 64-66F in the metroplex. So the DFW area certainly remains at risk.

* The warm front is aligned from Huntsville - Hillsboro - Glen Rose - Palo Pinto, remaining completely perpendicular to the prevailing flow.

* The storm over Possum Kingdom Lake approaching MWL is right on the warm front. I am not sure how it will hold together as it departs the warm front without a boundary (except the one shoving it eastward), but that cell and anything south of it will bear watching.

So from what I can tell, the metroplex is still under the gun, as is the area to the south (Johnson, Ellis, and Hill County).

Tim

 

[Terry Tyler]

got a grip of good webcams set up in DFW...thats my "virtual" chase spot...

 

[Angie Norris]

What a great catch, Tony...big congrats!!!!!!!

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Sweet tornado Tony! Congrats!

I have many family members throughout the DFW metro and they are all aware of the potential situation at hand. I told all of them to get their cameras ready.

 

[David Wolfson]

My virtual route seems to be trending generally toward the intersection of TX114 and I-35W in about two hours, if you get my "drift"....