4/13/07 NOW: TX/OK

[Tim Vasquez]

Some impressions as of 1950 UTC:

* The "wall of forcing" has blasted east to Knox City - Abilene. I'm figuring an eastward speed of about 50 mph on this thing.

* Dewpoints are falling off markedly ahead of the front in the Abilene - San Angelo area, and Cu on visible imagery there are definitely higher based.

* The warm front orientation is directly perpendicular to the prevailing flow, so I don't see any cell locking onto the front and producing any sort of corridor outbreak.

It looks like the options are (1) follow the Seymour storm to its demise (which may be starting now), or (2) stake a claim in the Throckmorton - Possum Kingdom area and hope for some pot shots as storms depart the warm front. Hopefully this New Mexico howler doesn't do us all in.

Tim

 

[Jordan Hartley]

3 echos E of Abilene and n of I-20 showing exploding towers on the GOES-12 Vis Sat. Storms invof Breckenridge & Moran and then down to Cisco & Eastland and then up to Ranger, TX. The nrn echo of the 3 has the strongest looking tower at the moment.

 

[David Wolfson]

Virtually pulling into Jacksboro now. The cell furthest south near Breckenridge is my fave on radar. While I don't want to get sucked into the metropolitan area, even virtually, I can't resist continuing on toward Graford to be closer if all heck breaks loose.

 

[JP Santiago]

PDS Tornado Watch issued for the North Texas area centered on a Waco-Metroplex axis. Don't think I can remember the last time I saw the color red on the text of an SPC advisory........

 

[matt patterson]

pulling in to perin tx now... watching the cell to my west.. looks like its getting a bit more organized....

 

[David Drummond]

Sitting in Ranger, TX trying real hard NOT to jump to early. I really want to get what pops down here to my SW.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Is SPC down?

Anyone else having trouble w/SPC? I'm not getting updated mesoanalysis. Most of the data I'm getting on there is now from 1800Z. (I've hit refresh a couple times, too)

 

[afischer]

Looks like chasers may face a similar dillema as was present earlier (whether to chase the early storm in Haskell county). Due to the orientation of the "firing line," storms farther north will be more likely to encounter enhanced low-level shear in the next few hours, near the sfc warm front. However, the storms also run the risk of becoming quickly elevated north of the front. It doesn't look like the stratus socked into the DFW metroplex is in any hurry to erode (probably a good thing for the metro), but we'll see what happens. Where the cu are towering farther south along the line, you've got a wider corridor of strong BL destabilation... but weaker 1km SRH and strongly veered 850 flow, unless something pops farther east. Kind of a "delicate" set-up in this regard.

 

[Karen Politte]

[Prohibited content regarding other people's posts in Target Area removed - See Rule #3 - Staff]

I would have been on the Seymour storm I guess for good or worse. I probably would have lost my windshield and had a few brief glimpses of something nasty happening to my south-west. I sure would like to know what that storm looked like in person.

KL

 

[David Wolfson]

Now virtually to the west of Matt past Barton's Chapel toward Graford. Looking at radar. Holy moley! Tim's NM howler is bowing this way like a freight train, the storm coming my way near Brad is a definite Feature of Interest and I sense a brisk left turn coming to run east northeast past where Matt is.

 

[Marko Korosec]

Anyone else having trouble w/SPC? I'm not getting updated mesoanalysis. Most of the data I'm getting on there is now from 1800Z. (I've hit refresh a couple times, too)

hmm funny thing...I already saw 19z s3 sector analysis, but now I see 18z...not sure whats wrong, they're not updating regularly to me neither.

PDS watch is issued over e-ne TX as expected. I guess it canot be quite a good feeling for DFW citizens this time, having PDS watch over there in HIGH risk on the Friday 13th..if they're superstitious.

Dryline is easily seen on the radar for some time now.

Good luck to everyone out there today, stay safe!!

 

[Glen Romine]

Storms seem to be struggling some to get going - which surprises me some. Yes - the shear is incredible - but the instability would seem to be reasonably matched and yet storms are still having a hard time holding on. The boundary is sneaking up rapidly on the line of storms - particularly across northern Stephens county. No obvious areas further east looking to shape up in the short term based on vis sat.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Tony Laubach called me 30 mins ago to report they had a wedge cross the road 200 yards in front of them south of Seymour, TX. The storm is weakening and they are moving southeast. Amos Magliocco and Eric Nguyen also witnessed it.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Storms seem to be struggling some to get going - which surprises me some. Yes - the shear is incredible - but the instability would seem to be reasonably matched and yet storms are still having a hard time holding on. The boundary is sneaking up rapidly on the line of storms - particularly across northern Stephens county. No obvious areas further east looking to shape up in the short term based on vis sat.

I was thinking the same thing,Glen..It sounds a little strange. I think shear is more impressive than we were thinking. Anyway I'm keeping an eye on the breckenbridge storm that is mergin just now.

 

[Rick Smith]

Tony Laubach called me 30 mins ago to report they had a wedge cross the road 200 yards in front of them south of Seymour, TX. The storm is weakening and they are moving southeast. Amos Magliocco and Eric Nguyen also witnessed it.

Any other details on this would be greatly appreciated!

Rick