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4/13/07 NOW: TX/OK

  • Thread starter Thread starter Jordan Hartley
  • Start date Start date
Warm front has recently passed through DFW, last hour, fog 67 East wind at 13, now, partly sunny 76 SE wind at 18. Might be too little too late though....Line seems to be moving more of to the NW of the metroplex rather than through it....I suspect that leaves the window wide open until, at least, the whole convective system passes by, whether through or just north of metroplex. I look toward the Waco area for development. Area has been sunny and in the 80's for a while now. Something tells me that the New Mexico Express wont be the only show today.


EDIT: I lied, southern end of the line has fired up.....still think from dallas to waco to tyler, is under the gun.... Backed winds, growing instability, and upper low continuing through the area.
 
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A brief look at the radar tells me that a portion of the line has already become outflow dominant to the west of D/FW. Unless something can form discrete characteristics in the next hour or so, the metroplex will be spared.
 
Waal. The RUC and Tim's expert eyeballs both point to the better backed surface winds as you approach the metroplex. The bow seems to be holding its inflow and is showing multiple teeth on radar to my non-expert eyeballs. I'm pretty sure structures like this can and do produce significant tornadoes.
 
Waal. The RUC and Tim's expert eyeballs both point to the better backed surface winds as you approach the metroplex. The bow seems to be holding its inflow and is showing multiple teeth on radar to my non-expert eyeballs. I'm pretty sure structures like this can and do produce significant tornadoes.
10/24/01. LEWPS/embedded supercells dropped giant tornadoes in north IN, srn lower MI, and NW OH. They were up to a mile-wide and F3 intensity.

With that said, I think that DFW metro is far from out of the woods as long as the storms that are aimed for the area can stay ahead of the warm front. There are some very impressive 0-1km SRH values, and it's in a region of lower LFCs.
 
I love Tony's shot of the wedge. Awesome pic! The storms west of Dallas are lined out but maybe something on the southern end will become more isolated. That big NASCAR race in the Dallas area will still be hit with high winds and large hail.

Bill Hark
http://www.harkphoto.com
 
It appears the storms on the SRN half of the line are becoming better organized. They also have much better seperation. The linear storms will likely move to the N of Ft. Worth anyway. But these more isolated cells farther SW still pose a major threat to the Dallas-Fort Worth area as they move NE and E. The Metroplex is by no means out of the woods yet. It appears the most potentially dangerous storms are really just beginning.
 
The FWS VAD does not paint a pretty picture for any long-lived mesocyclones. Nearly unidirection flow from 1-4 KM is not exactly good for deep meso's.

The cold front appears to be wreaking havoc as well. The storms/line segments are moving northeast while the CF is crashing ESE. At first I thought it was a big ol' gust front from Mineral Wells to north of Junction, but it actually appears like the cold front is initiating storms then immediately undercutting them. Best bet would be further south where the eastward movement of the front is not as drastic.
 
Pretty nasty bow heading for Denton area in a few hours. Like previously mentioned. Ft. Worth to Tyler to Waco, I find primed for Supercell development. I look for the storms south of I-20 between Brownwood and Fort Worth to begin taking on supercell characteristics, given the already sufficient parameters in place, and shear/instability further east.
 
I am looking at that Terry. I would not be suprised to see a Tor Warn going out for Erath Co. as the cell tracks NE. This cell is moving into a ripe environment, with the 5 PM SPC Mesoanalysis showing 4-7+ STP to the NE of these cells. This cell has more separation than the line to the north as well.
 
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