4/12/07 FCST: TX / OK / KS

[cedwards]

I am still holding out hope that a nice photogenic supercell can form in the Texas Panhandle. I am thinking Silverton is a pretty good target area. It is on the northern edge of the pathetic moisture. I don't hold out much hope of seeing any tornadoes, but with storms that rotate like they will tomorrow, they should be VERY photogenic. Now, if I can just star far enough away to capture the entire storm, and stay away from the hail, it should be a good chase.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Pathetic moisture doesn't really begin to describe tomorrow. Honestly, myself and crew are heading down out of convenience to chase Friday for the weekend getaway for those of us sick of snow here in Denver. Hard to justify making a trip to NE Texas for a single setup, so having this day in between makes us pretend we're not as crazy as we sound! LOL

With that in mind, we're hopeful for a good photogenic storm tomorrow. Shear looks very impressive and oughta make for something interesting. As the night moves on, we'll focus our attention to lightning and get all of that out of our system before the bigger day on Saturday.

We're leaving in a couple hours for Amarillo where we'll base camp for the night and check things out in the morning. I imagine we'll be plenty good on time to get a good night's rest before heading out.

Maybe some panhandle magic will squeeze itself out, and I certainly wouldn't mind a hailstone or two! Honestly, not expecting a whole lot out of tomorrow except to space out the drive for Friday!

 

[Jason Boggs]

Yea, forget what I said about the moisture return in my previous post. Td in Amarillo is -1 right now. It will be very hard to get some good moisture in the area by the time the dynamics arrive. I do agree that there should be some photogenic LP supercells somewhere in the SE Panhandle tomorrow. I think the tornado potential will be somewhat low due to the lack of good quality moisture. I guess we will wait and see...

 

[bill mudd]

just rolled in to Tucumcari NM....can't pass up a SLT even if it ends up only being a photo shoot
looks like initiation should start at the NM/TX border but the road networks are pretty weak in this neck of the woods (sage)

not expecting much but would welcome a PM if anyone has the time - would love an ol classic sup shot!!!

....and then there is this weekend

 

[Jay McCoy]

I am liking the fact that the models are not handling the moisture return well. The front didnt seem to sweep the moisture clean to the gulf and DP"s are about 15 degrees above progs. DP in Tulia in Tuliua is already 30 and 50s near Austin and San Antonia. With good ESE winds all night and morning I can see 50's easily getting back into the panhandle by 21z. Especially east of I27. Triple point setting up between Clovis and Tuccumcari, NM with front along I-40. Looks like Plainview to Silverton may have some fun late in the day. Oh boy I hope that cop is ready for chasers again!!!!

 

[Bill Schintler]

Chase target for Thursday, April 12

Chase target:
Matador, TX (45 miles northeast of Lubbock).

Timing:
Storm initiation: 5:30 PM CDT.

Storm mode:
High based supercell storms capable of hail to golf-ball size along with impressive storm structure.

Synopsis:
UA analysis indicated upstream lead shortwave which was accompanied by H5/H7 height falls over NV along with mid-level CAA over SRN CA. Throughout TX, the lower levels of the atmosphere were in extremely dry, owing to northwesterly flow in the wake of the exiting NERN CONUS system.

Discussion:
A narrow axis of modest and weakly capped instability is forecasted to develop in response to the aforementioned shortwave as SFC low pressure rapidly develops over NRN NM while strong SERLY SFC flow transports a shallow moist layer with dewpoints approaching 50F as far N as LBB by 21Z. The most likely location for storm initiation may be near the triple point of an advancing DL and the WF, which will be collocated at SWRN periphery of a mid-level cloud deck along and N of the Red River in association with WAA in the H7 layer. Storms may develop and move E off the Caprock where they would encounter increasingly backed SFC flow along with deeper moisture. Despite limited instability, large hodograph curvatures in the SFC-3km layer along with deep-layer shear approaching 60 kts should assist with storm organization. Additionally, the orientation of the flow at the SFC and aloft should tend to support a discreet storm mode for several hours following initiation. During the evening hours after the BL decouples, a strengthening 50kt LLJ will aid in the maintenance of one or more MCS’s which will move E into KS and OK.

10:30 PM CDT, 04/11/07

- bill

 

[Tony Laubach]

Chasing out of convenience... a nice luxury to have on days like this. Certainly not expecting a whole lot from today, but the panhandle has been known to surprise...

Excellent shear oughta be in place for any storms that do develop along the dryline later this afternoon. We're hopeful to get a nice LP sup or two with the off-chance of getting under a decent hailer. While we're certainly not expecting it, we're thinking that a slight tornado chance will exist later in the evening as moisture and LLJ increases and storms interact with the front.

So with that, we'll kill off a good part of the day here in Amarillo before heading out on I-27 for someplace between Plainview and Lubbock and chase our way into position for tomorrow's setup.

Its sooo nice to be chasing Texas in April... not Nebraska!

 

[Bill Tabor]

My thoughts are for daytime chasing (before 0z) the area near the slight will be tough except for elevated supercells with hail and wind. They may be photogenic though. At this moment (20z) I still don't see a lot of surface moisture reaching the area in near the southern Tx panhandle. I see mid to low 40's dewpoints with one reading of 52 at SNK. I don't have a lot of faith in that number though, but perhaps some moisture convergence could be piling there. I see the low to mid 40's extending quite a ways to the south and southeast from there. SPC Mesoanalysis indicates 100mb Mlcape of 250 uncapped near Lamesa.

SPC Mesonalysis - MLCAPE

My expectation is that moisture will finally become somewhat reasonable after 0z will support some stronger severe possibly tornadic supercell storms between 0z and 6z in an area primarily bounded by Plainview, Hobbs, Odessa, Abilene.

This 0Z action does have me a little worried:
4km WRF precip. valid 00z

However it is WRF based from the 0z run so I don't necessarily have a lot of faith in it.

RUC precip forecast is a little more conservative for 01z:
RUC QPF valid 1z

Earls Tornado forecast is inspiring for those of you wanting to hunt tornadoes in the dark:

Tornado mask valid 00z

I was strongly considering heading out today to check it but the dismal moisture this morning and early afternoon kept me home. Had I believed there was a stronger chance for daytime tornado chasing I would have gone and also checked out a lot of the night action. For those of you out in the field however; this evening could turn out to be an exceptional time for some good lightning photography or time lapse of very late evening supercells, possibly even a late night backlit tornado for those determined enough IMO. Good luck.

MOD: Edited to remove images in place of links (more friendly to those in the field on limited-bandwidth communications).