4/12/07 FCST: TX / OK / KS

[Stan Rose]

Was gonna throw this in the general discussion, since its unclear still if it's gonna be the 12th or 13th as a better day, but this is such a potentially significant event (probably deserves another thread for winter potential in CO, WY etc) that it deserves immediate attention. Both GFS and EC are pretty consistent in now bringing a significant trough (-30 deg at h5) through the rockies by thursday. The dynamics with this system look insane. GFS is progging a 979 mb low in CO by the 13th (!!). Big question (among many at this point) is timing and moisture return. The runs have been going back and forth with extent of moisture return, much depending on the strength of the preceding shortwave and attendant front. Latest GFS suggests decent dews wont be in place until the 13th, and may be too far east by then for me to consider a long roadtrip (although--if it really looks good, to east Texas i go! ). There's gonna be some significant severe wx somewhere, the where and when to be determined! Will be fun watching over the next few days.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

IMO I think the GFS is way to fast like normal. My current thinking is the threat will be from C KS into N TX eastward on the 13th. All the ingredients are coming together for a pretty signifcant severe wx event over this area though. It's to early to get into specifics, but I think it could be a good setup across the plains on Friday.

 

[David Drummond]

The only thing I didn't like were the progged dewpoints on the last GFS I looked at last night. As noted, it's been fast on these systems lately, so I suspect it will slow down some as it comes more clearly in to view.

I also suspect that possibly the moisture return may be underforecast, given the recent precipitation over the last couple weeks and the current winter event precipitaton going on, all which will keep things from being bone dry before the LLJ sets up again. I can foresee the reality of rapid moisture return for this system to work with. Especially in TX/OK.

 

[Ray Walker]

This system looks to have insane wind feilds and dynamics, however the moisture return doesnt excite me yet. However instead of this system being in eastern Oklahoma and east texas I think it will be across central or even Western portions of the plains when the storms fire. However moisture return is a HUGE??? right now. If moisture return is strong, then a massive severe weather outbreak is likely.
Thats the problem with such dynamic systems though, everything has to come together just right for significant outbreaks. This one looks as though it could be one of the big ones though. Especially given the way the season has started off.

 

[matt patterson]

Even though i think that this will be more a of a friday the 13th event i will keep my thoughts here until better guidence comes about. Anyway im with Dave on this one, i think that moisture is underforecasted at this time... The folks in SE and E TX are getting soaked right now and will continue to do so for another 12-15 hrs... Also to note that this same area will likley see rain again on Tues.. All this combined will really help in the moisture transfer dept.... Looks like this system has some potential... Also if the central ok target were to hold then we may see the years largest chaser outing to date...being on a friday and all!!!!!

 

[Adam Atkins]

I believe there is too much emphasis on surface layer/soil moisture. Deep moisture is not progged to return until Friday, which means if there is any mixing and insolation thursday, any moisture will be mixed out which is what the models have depicted. The best shot for any precip would be more of an upslope regime in E Colorado. Unfortunately attm Thursday looks like a waste of good dynamics.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I think anything in the typical plains is toast till after next weekend. Anyone looked at the surface down south lately? lol It's almost 5pm and it's 39 just sw of Houston. Snow reports south of Dallas. The gfs progs another front going into the gulf Wednesday. Friday may have a shot but probably well south into the trees and hills. I'm usually optimistic when it comes to moisture moving north, but man, this cold of air that far south.....OVER the gulf.....call me a pessimist this time! Then again maybe it just seems worse than it is. It doesn't seem like as nasty of a gulf killer as one can get this time of year, but this air outside sure makes it seem like it should be.

As it is, Thursday right now looks like a classic April waste of a system setup. Put some better moisture up along the high plains and it'd be huge, but, that's not going to happen. I'd give FAR sw TX some hope though. Friday if it were to slow down a bit could remind me a lot of April 15, 2006 where moisture made some serious ground and was JUST high enough in se NE for the Beatrice tornado. Drats, I've been trying not to be too optimistic and one post later here I am.

 

[Shane Adams]

Well, being it's April 7, I was in Waxahachie, TX all day (30 miles south of Dallas) and it SNOWED on me all day, I'm more than a bit pessimistic about ample moisture return. Even if rapid transportation happens in the 11th hour (like last year on 4-15-06 as H mentioned), how deep will it be?

I agree that dynamically this thing looks potent, but the gulf has been getting its arse handed to it all week.

 

[matt patterson]

I found this Kind of interesting.. It looks like Norman isnt buying into a speedy scenario that the GFS is forecasting... nothing concrete but interesting to say the least...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php?map=4

 

[Kenny Drake]

Without even looking at the forecast models I can say that moisture return will be a problem before the end of the week. With the deep cold air intrusion last week that pushed into the Gulf I don't see anywhere except maybe TX seeing 60F dewpoints before next weekend. Remember, the May 28th event came after 2 weeks of southerly flow across the plains with no cold air intrusions. Now looking at the models. The slower the system moves the more time we should see for moisture advection. GFS has been too fast in moving the last few systems through the plains, so I would not be surprised to see the main action coming Thursday through the weekend.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Nice slow down on the 0z gfs giving the plains some hope. Better moisture return then too. The moisture return is better as the front ahead of system no longer plows into the gulf. This reminds me of an early system this year where that went away around this time frame out. Probably should change this date to the 13th or just start a new thread for that.

 

[Jason A.C. Brock]

I think things will slow down a bit and we will be looking more at the 13th perhaps even the 14th. If the Tuesdayish front doesnt make to the Gulf could we possibly see it become staionary and then move North as a warm front or will it jsut wash out? If so and themoisture has until Saturay to return we could be looking at a nice coulpe of setups. 1.along a dryline warm front cool front triple point 2. more isolated cells jsut along the dryline to the south of that area. As always this far out is more like being wishful thinking and a witch doctor than forecasting. Ill jsut be glad to see the severe weather seaso start back up within a week after it snowing in North Texas! I keep telling myself mother nature didnt show us all her goods in March and the rest of the season will be crap. I want this to be a season to remember....and not jsut from the March madness.

 

[Stan Rose]

I'm fairly impressed with the consistency of the global runs over the last 24 h. I can see why people are pesimistic about the moisture return, but hey--Spring is Spring. I don't think a little snow is gonna slow this one down. Neveretheless, the timing may favor a more eastern show, so i may just have to stay close to home and blizzard chase. I can live with that-

 

[Shane Adams]

After reading H's new post with slightly more optimism regarding moisture return, I went and glanced the h85 loop....there seems to be a 12-18 hour period where the h85 winds remain backed over the gulf prior to the Friday system's arrival. If that becomes reality, then I believe ample moisture could be in place before the dynamics arrive, albeit a smaller area than if we had days upon days of southerly winds leading up to this. Right now this is feeling like a N/C Texas event.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

As it is, Thursday right now looks like a classic April waste of a system setup. Put some better moisture up along the high plains and it'd be huge, but, that's not going to happen.

Ooops! Figures. I'd say Thursday looks like the best day if the GFS is at all right. Southwest Oklahoma looks a bit delicious if that moisture return is close. Things certainly looking a lot more optimistic without that Wednesday gufl front. Hard to beat the shear profile currently progged for the area. I'm preparing my sunglasses for all the blinding lightbars I'm sure to see if it pans out.