4/11/09 FCST: TX/OK

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Well it is still 6 days out, but the GFS has been fairly consistent bringing a nice system into the Southern Plains next Saturday, April 11. Based off of the 0z GFS dews could reach the low-mid 60s across much of Texas and S OK. A nice dryline looks to setup in the E TX Panhandle and CAPE should be decent with 1500-2000+ j/kg across the warm sector. Now put a nice negative tilt trough over some S/SE LLJ and you got the makings of a major severe weather event next weekend. The GFS has been consistent for a few runs now so lets see what happens!

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

If this was really to set up on W/OK E TX panhandle. It doesn't look like things could recoup for the next day, Like a Central OK setup does it? Wouldnt mind the temperatures being warmer.

P.S.
HAHA look at the CAPE for 324 HRS... 3500- 4000 Jkg NC OK (12z run)

 

[Connor McCrorey]

Glad to see I'm not the only one who's been watching this. Yes, the GFS has been very consistent with this system for several runs now. If this was today I would probably be heading west to the Throckmorton area. Much better moisture across the warm sector than we've really seen all year, and the resulting decently sized area of moderate instability should have no problem getting storms severe. Mix in some SE surface winds, S 850s, and SW 500s (or at least they were on the 0z... Haven't seen them on the 12z), and we could definitely be looking at some tornadoes. Also I really like the N-S orientation of the dryline through TX. I was a little pissed I couldn't chase yesterday after everything moved into Nebraska... Maybe this Saturday will make up for it!

 

[Eric Sipes]

It's still too early to get into specifics but, I'm starting to like this system. Our biggest problem this year has been moisture. This time, we don't have any major systems coming in the day before. There is a relatively weak cold front coming in on thursday but, nothing to strongly inhibit moisture return.

With the 12Z run, we're looking at 1500+ CAPE from near Childress, TX down to Abilene, TX and SW from there. We also have Tds in the upper 50s to low 60s in the same area. We still have good shear with strong SE winds at the surface, 30knt S winds at 850mb and, 60knt SW winds at 500mb. That, along with a warm sector that's more than 30 miles wide, makes me think this COULD be our first good tornado day of 2009. Then again, at 6 days out, I could be wishcasting.

-Eric

Edit: The 00z GFS has changed things up a bit. It's now putting mid 50s Tds along I-27 with smaller pockets of 1000-1500 CAPE. It also suggests a strong cap will be in place. Although, it's still showing good shear. It's still a ways out so I'll hold onto some hope. I expect the GFS to be up and down for the next few days. Until the NAM/Eta models begin to show the system, I won't get too deeply involved in the finer issues.

Edit 2: Well, consistency just went out the window. I think the GFS just just got hit in the head with a shovel. It's all over the place with everything and I'm pretty sure it's confused. Not too surprising given other setups this year. We'll just have to wait 'til the other models pick it up.

 

[Lanny Dean]

I usually do not post on the forecast threads as I see no real use in it personally however, latest GFS runs (00z Sunday) seems to be painting a much different picture than earlier runs. Per latest...maximum CAPE values do not exceed 700j/kg anywhere in the areas discussed not to mention the "good" dewpoints are not progged to reach even the low 50's. There does seem to be a good punch at 700 and at this point it looks like the dryline does get pretty sharp for the TX discussion but again dew points do not seem to climb past the mid 50s for this area as well.
Of course as noted, this is still 5 days out and hopefully things will change but at this point this system looks marginal at best.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

I usually do not post on the forecast threads as I see no real use in it personally however, latest GFS runs (00z Sunday) seems to be painting a much different picture than earlier runs. Per latest...maximum CAPE values do not exceed 700j/kg anywhere in the areas discussed not to mention the "good" dewpoints are not progged to reach even the low 50's. There does seem to be a good punch at 700 and at this point it looks like the dryline does get pretty sharp for the TX discussion but again dew points do not seem to climb past the mid 50s for this area as well.
Of course as noted, this is still 5 days out and hopefully things will change but at this point this system looks marginal at best.

Agree with Lanny here. Last nights run of the GFS along with todays morning run of the GFS look very maginal. CAPE only forcasted in deep SW TX south of I20 with right at 60's tds only making it as far north as I20 as well. Still plenty of time for thing to change. Hopefully future runs of the GFS will swing back to bringing the 60 td's and CAPE way north of I20 like it did a few runs ago to say Lubbock and points NE of there towards the Childress area.

 

[Dann Cianca]

I'm still liking this setup quite a bit.

The last few runs have been painting this picture consistently.

Both the NAM and GFS are showing 2000-2250J/kg of CAPE between Pecos and Midland, TX. The hodographs look great for supercells and it looks like they'll be slow-movers. Dewpoints should be in the upper 50's to 60... which is really good in my opinion (of course, I'm used to chasing in Colorado. )

Upper level dynamics could be a bit better, but I think with the instability in place along with a strong dryline, that shouldn't be a problem.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

I'm still liking this setup quite a bit.

The last few runs have been painting this picture consistently.

Both the NAM and GFS are showing 2000-2250J/kg of CAPE between Pecos and Midland, TX. The hodographs look great for supercells and it looks like they'll be slow-movers. Dewpoints should be in the upper 50's to 60... which is really good in my opinion (of course, I'm used to chasing in Colorado. )

Upper level dynamics could be a bit better, but I think with the instability in place along with a strong dryline, that shouldn't be a problem.

I agree. Low-level hodographs look great in the Odessa area. Of course for me upper 50s isn't great, but I'm used to north Texas Lol but really in west Texas upper 50s-60 should be fine. FWIW, the 18z GFS showed a nice breaking of the cap right by Odessa at 0z Sunday. I'll be chasing, with a general target of Odessa for now.

 

[Jeff Passner]

Looks like it will be even further west than Odessa, probably be near El Paso before it's all over, without the moisture... I know what the models say, but it's Wednesday night and each model run slows this down. The surface low will probably be near El Paso Saturday afternoon with low-40s dew points. Sure they'll be some low-50s dew points near Odessa but the upslope off the Davis Mounatins would be the only hope there. The WRF is really holding back the moisture but that's due to the surface high over Michigan advecting dry air into the area. I'm starting to think Sunday is the better day unless it's just raining everywhere. We'll see what the model trends do the next two days, but this looks like a winter-type of storm and not a Spring severe-weather case. I generally like to chase these cases with low-level easterlies under a diffluent upper flow, but the moisture influx seems cutoff by the Michigan surface high. Moisture should be better on Sunday as the system moves into Texas with height falls and PVA.