4/01/06 NOW: KS/OK/TX

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Tornado Watch #121 has gone up over SW KS, Western 1/3 of OK, and the Eastern 1/2 of the OK and TX panhandles. Watch goes until 10 PM.
 
Initiation has occured in the N TX Panhandle in W Ochiltree County/E Hansford Co. and SWD into C Hutchinson County. These cells appear to be developing in an area where the "warm front"/moisture return and dryline are co-located, likely enhancing surface convergence. The chasers in NW OK/SW KS may be seeing our first action of the day shortly.
 
Tornado Watch #121 has gone up over SW KS, Western 1/3 of OK, and the Eastern 1/2 of the OK and TX panhandles. Watch goes until 10 PM. No word on if it's a PDS watch or not. Looking through the wording, it looks like there is no PDS on it.
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Dryline becoming very evident with some CU now showing up along it. The low level advection is also picked up with low cloud stream towards the north that continues to push the warm front into central KS into NE OK and Central AR.

g12.2006091.2003_smICT_vis.jpg


The Eastern TX Panhandle could light up soon as the sharpening dryline is showing up very well with points at DUX falling rapidly through the lower 40's. The line is currently located some 10-15 miles west of AMA where the TD is still in the 54-58 degree range. Things are getting ready to explode. Good luck everyone in the field.
 
Initiation looks to occur very soon in the Texas Panhandle area.
SPC Meso Analysis shows LI's around -6/-7 in the area. Development should be explosive with such large amounts of instability.

EDIT: Storms taking off in the norther panhandle area with lightning detected.
 
Another one has gone up SW of Garden City. Nothing telling on the radar yet.

Edit (2:39 PM): This cell is weakening as Heath pointed out below.
 
The Garden City storm has weaked substantially.

Healthiest (by radar) current storms are a line along HWY 83, S of Liberal, in the OK Panhandle. Growing well.
 
storms trying to form currently in ne of lubbock currently been watchin on last couple scans
in northern crosby & southern floyd counties spc has a meso dis on this area for poss tornado
watch next 1 hr or so... i'll be watching this area..

watching the latest radar trends expecting rapid delvopment from crosbyton up to near childress
in the next 45 mins or so... as they get closer to extreem sw ok altus to hollis expect that area
to be prime for these to possibly produce a strong tornado or two.. iam closely watching this area
and will close further into sw ok if need be..
 
Sitting in Childress. It is warm and humid (but we live in LBB to humid is relative). Liking the sfc winds backing here and south of here with a bit of a dryline push at LBB and south.

Waiting game for now...
 
Kevin, that cell back to your sw is going up rapidly... showing lightning in it now
and up to 55 dbz. EDIT: also more going up just se of the above storm by about
30 miles in dickens county
 
We just saw that on radar. There are turkey towers EVERYwhere here, so we don't have a visual on the cell to our SW yet. Looks like things may get interesting round these parts really soon. Over and out if so. Good luck everyone who's out.
 
Those chasers Southeast of Amarillo, TX and in extreme SW Oklahoma appear to have the best shot at discrete supercells and tornadoes. Initiation has begun Southeast of Amarillo with much stronger instability and dynamics located between Childress and Altus now. I'd expect these cells to strengthen rapidly as they moved toward and into the SW Oklahoma area. Better tornadic potential will be in these areas.
 
I have quick question for opinions on this one.. seems warm moist air seems to still
be flowing good into swrn, central ok iam about in the lawton area now, should i stay
in this location and prepare for later or move west? becouse i have talked to a couple
guys who have kinda agreed with my thoughts of the possibilty of after dark tornadoes
tonight across central,sc ok, can anyone give me their opinions on this?
 
Currently sitting in Woodward Oklahoma monitoring trends. Am a little dissapointed that TD's are still in the upper 50's in NW OK... they are nearing 60 just N of I-40 on Mesonet however. Am likely going to stay put for the time being and wait for the storms to move furthur east into the more moist air... LCL's are pretty high right now for most of NW OK/NE TX pan.

Of interesting note a couple storms have formed E of DDC along the warm front. Other CU's are evident stretching back into SC KS and NC OK. ICT AFD indicated a weakening cap over this area with increasing moisture. Not sure if shear will be strong enough over these parts but something to watch with a boundry in the hood.
 
Todd, initiation is happening in the C TX Panhandle, and instability seems to be plenty for severe cells. As the storms move into SW OK, parameters (Td, backing of winds, etc) seem to be a little better for discrete torndadic cells. If you don't feel like driving to the border and back, you could probably just stay just W of Lawton and cherry pick the cell you want. However, this may give you limited daytime viewing for your chase. And though parameters are better there, they aren't too dang bad over here...so I'd keep heading west. That's just me though. Good luck!
 
Currently sitting in Altus, anxiety watching the cell trying to develop into extreme nw Harmon county just WNW of us.

Still have some hopes, but a little dissappointed about low Tds not making it farther west. I guess we sit and wait. The stuff southwest of us is looking multicell at the time, and it's removed from the stronger lowlevel flow IIRC.
 
Looking at initiation....Altus-Lawton OK is where I would be sitting with expected supercell moving in that direction within the next 2 hours. Tornado threat will become more established there as instability axis has been in place longer, and stronger low level shear values are present. I think that stuff SW of Childress is only the beginning. Also, the further east you go the inversion is holding pretty firm from ICT-OUN-DFW. Looks like tornadic threat will become higher by 23-00z.
 
One very dominant storm has taken shape southwest of Childress. This storm bears watching for further organization especially since it will be moving into the more favorable shear environment. Kevin Walter and any other chasers, good luck. This storm might be the one to keep a serious eye on.
 
NEW MESO DISC SAYS " AREA PROFILERS INDICATE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT WITH 50+ KT
MID LEVEL FLOW ABOVE 3 KM ACROSS W TX. LOW LEVEL JET/850 FLOW IS
ALSO INCREASING AND WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS. THUS...STORM STRUCTURE SHOULD
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH TIME...WITH THREAT OF TORNADOES
INCREASING WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0393.html


i think there is a REALLY REALLY good threat now of long lived tornadoes
across sw into central ok between 6 pm and midnight... might see i could be wrong
a pds tornado watch for an area of sw into central ok issued in a bit, anyone else agree with me
on that?

iam gonna go a bit west of lawton, sit up about 30 mi w of there wait this out for awhile

EDIT: also wanted to note dewpoint readings near childress at 56 while when you get altus
to the east they are getting into the middle to some locations even upper 60s!! so these
really could start exploding over towards lawton later, esp with spc sayin wind fields are
getting stronger...
 
NEW MESO DISC SAYS " AREA PROFILERS INDICATE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT WITH 50+ KT
MID LEVEL FLOW ABOVE 3 KM ACROSS W TX. LOW LEVEL JET/850 FLOW IS
ALSO INCREASING AND WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS. THUS...STORM STRUCTURE SHOULD
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH TIME...WITH THREAT OF TORNADOES
INCREASING WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0393.html


i think there is a REALLY REALLY good threat now of long lived tornadoes
across sw into central ok between 6 pm and midnight... might see i could be wrong
a pds tornado watch for an area of sw into central ok issued in a bit, anyone else agree with me
on that?

iam gonna go a bit west of lawton, sit up about 30 mi w of there wait this out for awhile
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Low-level shear is marginal to moderate, but LCLs are high (20-30F dewpoint depressions), which will likley inhibit long-lived/strong tornadoes (along with marginal 30-35kt deeplayer shear). Said shear will increase in time, as will low-level shear, and boundary layer RH will increase as the surface cools (we're at or beyond peak heating attm). However, I highly, highly doubt they'll replace this with a PDS watch (I'll almost gaurantee it). We'll see.

Surface moisture is mixing out unfortunately, with very little in the way of Tds >62 north or west of I44. ASOS obs nearby are mid-60s, but I think that's incorrect. All mesonet sites show nothing above 63F in southwestern or western OK, with the higher Tds remaining near SC OK.
 
Cell just northwest of Paducah TX looks worse than the one next to it currently being warned... AE has 2.75" hail with it.
 
Stronger mid level flow might finally be arriving, as several cells are starting to gain some organization. Muliple chase groups on the cell in N Greer/S Beckham, Co. OK. Radar trends way up (VILs, dBZs, SREV, and Echo Tops).
 
The cell southwest of Sayre,OK is showing very slight signs of rotation. This is one to watch and seems to be getting more organized as it moves into the favorable shear/moisture area.
 
Minimal overhang on it and not detecting much if any rotation. That's not the same cell as the one SW of Childress you originally said would be the one to watch.

AE says 3.3" hail with it though!
 
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