4/01/06 NOW: KS/OK/TX

[John MacKay]

Tornado Watch #121 has gone up over SW KS, Western 1/3 of OK, and the Eastern 1/2 of the OK and TX panhandles. Watch goes until 10 PM.

 

[Chad Ringley]

Initiation has occured in the N TX Panhandle in W Ochiltree County/E Hansford Co. and SWD into C Hutchinson County. These cells appear to be developing in an area where the "warm front"/moisture return and dryline are co-located, likely enhancing surface convergence. The chasers in NW OK/SW KS may be seeing our first action of the day shortly.

 

[Brett Adair]

Tornado Watch #121 has gone up over SW KS, Western 1/3 of OK, and the Eastern 1/2 of the OK and TX panhandles. Watch goes until 10 PM. No word on if it's a PDS watch or not. Looking through the wording, it looks like there is no PDS on it.
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Dryline becoming very evident with some CU now showing up along it. The low level advection is also picked up with low cloud stream towards the north that continues to push the warm front into central KS into NE OK and Central AR.

The Eastern TX Panhandle could light up soon as the sharpening dryline is showing up very well with points at DUX falling rapidly through the lower 40's. The line is currently located some 10-15 miles west of AMA where the TD is still in the 54-58 degree range. Things are getting ready to explode. Good luck everyone in the field.

 

[Khristian Snyder]

Initiation looks to occur very soon in the Texas Panhandle area.
SPC Meso Analysis shows LI's around -6/-7 in the area. Development should be explosive with such large amounts of instability.

EDIT: Storms taking off in the norther panhandle area with lightning detected.

 

[John MacKay]

Another one has gone up SW of Garden City. Nothing telling on the radar yet.

Edit (2:39 PM): This cell is weakening as Heath pointed out below.

 

[Heath Schroeder]

The one SW of Garden City started to show on radar had a 47.5dbz but has weakened shortly after starting up.

 

[Khristian Snyder]

New cell going up near Crosbyton, or 37 miles ENE of Lubbock.

 

[Greg Campbell]

The Garden City storm has weaked substantially.

Healthiest (by radar) current storms are a line along HWY 83, S of Liberal, in the OK Panhandle. Growing well.

 

[Todd Rasmuson]

storms trying to form currently in ne of lubbock currently been watchin on last couple scans
in northern crosby & southern floyd counties spc has a meso dis on this area for poss tornado
watch next 1 hr or so... i'll be watching this area..

watching the latest radar trends expecting rapid delvopment from crosbyton up to near childress
in the next 45 mins or so... as they get closer to extreem sw ok altus to hollis expect that area
to be prime for these to possibly produce a strong tornado or two.. iam closely watching this area
and will close further into sw ok if need be..

 

[Kevin Walter]

Sitting in Childress. It is warm and humid (but we live in LBB to humid is relative). Liking the sfc winds backing here and south of here with a bit of a dryline push at LBB and south.

Waiting game for now...

 

[Todd Rasmuson]

Kevin, that cell back to your sw is going up rapidly... showing lightning in it now
and up to 55 dbz. EDIT: also more going up just se of the above storm by about
30 miles in dickens county

 

[Kevin Walter]

We just saw that on radar. There are turkey towers EVERYwhere here, so we don't have a visual on the cell to our SW yet. Looks like things may get interesting round these parts really soon. Over and out if so. Good luck everyone who's out.

 

[HAltschule]

Those chasers Southeast of Amarillo, TX and in extreme SW Oklahoma appear to have the best shot at discrete supercells and tornadoes. Initiation has begun Southeast of Amarillo with much stronger instability and dynamics located between Childress and Altus now. I'd expect these cells to strengthen rapidly as they moved toward and into the SW Oklahoma area. Better tornadic potential will be in these areas.

 

[Todd Rasmuson]

I have quick question for opinions on this one.. seems warm moist air seems to still
be flowing good into swrn, central ok iam about in the lawton area now, should i stay
in this location and prepare for later or move west? becouse i have talked to a couple
guys who have kinda agreed with my thoughts of the possibilty of after dark tornadoes
tonight across central,sc ok, can anyone give me their opinions on this?

 

[Philip Flory]

Currently sitting in Woodward Oklahoma monitoring trends. Am a little dissapointed that TD's are still in the upper 50's in NW OK... they are nearing 60 just N of I-40 on Mesonet however. Am likely going to stay put for the time being and wait for the storms to move furthur east into the more moist air... LCL's are pretty high right now for most of NW OK/NE TX pan.

Of interesting note a couple storms have formed E of DDC along the warm front. Other CU's are evident stretching back into SC KS and NC OK. ICT AFD indicated a weakening cap over this area with increasing moisture. Not sure if shear will be strong enough over these parts but something to watch with a boundry in the hood.