4/01/06 NOW: KS/OK/TX

[Bob Schafer]

Gotta agree with David... The "Beckham county" storm has several "issues", while the "Childress" complex is going to get into some better parameters shortly after crossing the Red River. Chiefly, low-level SRH, as the sfc winds back from SW to S or SSE. Looks to be back-building now, but that may stop as consolidation occurs.

Already seeing some rotation at several tilts. I would guess our chasers on it are currently observing a rotating wc, if not tornado.

 

[Chad Ringley]

Gotta agree with David... The "Beckham county" storm has several "issues", while the "Childress" complex is going to get into some better parameters shortly after crossing the Red River. Chiefly, low-level SRH, as the sfc winds back from SW to S or SSE. Looks to be back-building now, but that may stop as consolidation occurs.

Already seeing some rotation at several tilts. I would guess our chasers on it are currently observing a rotating wc, if not tornado.
[/b]

I don't know about that...it is inherently a "cluster" of multiple supercells...not a chasers friend. As is the case with the Beckham Co. storm, the cells appears to be very outflow dominant with cold RFDs. As highlighted by the current SVS on these cells, strong outflow and very large hail are the primary threats.

Also, no TOR warnings as these TVS skits that are produced by the radar are likely due to strong FFD outflow. We'll need to see one or two cells take over and become dominant before we see a real tornado threat.

 

[rdale]

TVS now on the Childress complex
[/b]

I don't see a well-organized, strong rotation... Where are you saying the tornado threat is right now?

 

[Chad Ringley]

I don't see a well-organized, strong rotation... Where are you saying the tornado threat is right now?
[/b]

Gotta love those TVS skits from outflow, we really need to work on developing a better TVS algorithm...I'm sure NSSL is all over it

MCS evolution is ongoing with our cluster of cells in SW OK as the cold pools consolidate. Meanwhile, the discrete cell that was in Beckham Co. will soon be crossing into Washi ta Co. and may again try to reorganize a meso...but still looks very outflow dominant.

 

[Chad Ringley]

Best looking cell on radar now in Central Comanche Co. KS S of Coldwater....organizing rotation, very strong core, and quite...discrete!

EDIT: TOR Warn for Comanche/Barber Co. KS now...this cell might be our first "customer" of the day.

 

[Brandon Clement]

Best looking cell on radar now in Central Comanche Co. KS S of Coldwater....organizing rotation, very strong core, and quite...discrete!

EDIT: TOR Warn for Comanche/Barber Co. KS now...this cell might be our first "customer" of the day.
[/b]

That storm is beginning to look like a flying eagle on radar, looks like the LLJ is increasing as the storm is moving into a better environment. As long as it stays somewhat discrete we could be talking about this storm for a while.

 

[Todd Rasmuson]

looks like we could have a real problem towards central ok if these short range
models turn out correct on the wind flow pattern, iam thinking best threat as
i have stated before along i-44 later on this eve okc to lawton and eastward,
not so sure as earlyer but still think we might could get one large tornado possible
within this eve as this moves east towards i-44 and i-35

EDIT: i would be a bit concerned with the way this is lineing out looks like into a squall
line not totally but looks like its trying but hopefully by the time it gets east they will break
apart more but only time will tell...

 

[Khristian Snyder]

VIL's into the 70's on the sw OK cluster. Wonder if it can get organized as it heads into an area with better helicity values.

 

[Chad Ringley]

That storm is beginning to look like a flying eagle on radar, looks like the LLJ is increasing as the storm is moving into a better environment. As long as it stays somewhat discrete we could be talking about this storm for a while.
[/b]

Defintley the best looking cell of the day..impressive meso.

Not nearly as "discrete" as it was when it initiated..convection is developing to it's W and S...might be disrupted as time goes forward.

EDIT: AHHH it looks terrific, but the RFD is going to be cold and precip-filled as convection to its west starts to pollute it. The atmosphere has played a great April Fool's joke on us all!

VIL's into the 70's on the complex storm. Wonder if it can get organized as it heads into an area with better helicity values.
[/b]

Complex storm? You mean the cluster of cells in SW OK? This "cluster" has evolved into a forward propogating MCS with a pretty substantial damaging wind and hail threat, but no longer poses a tornado threat..other than possible brief spinups along the leading edge of the outflow.

 

[Mark Farnik]

The Barbour Co. cell has now collided with the exploding cell to its west, effectively killing off its once magnificent meso. The storms have conglomerated into several distinct forward propogating clusters/MCS's, the most prominent one raking southwest OK attm and racing towards the OKC Metro. The only relatively isolated cells are in the vicinty of Woodward, and even they are struggling. They are sandwiched between the northern cluster between Buffalo/Freedom and the middle cluster near Clinton and Weatherford.With all the convective clutter around them and the likely cold outflow coming off the storm cluster near Weatherford it will be difficult for them to establish themselves and have any real hope of producing any tornadoes. Looks like Mother Nature's pulled one over on us. Oh well, what more could you expect on April Fool's Day?

 

[HAltschule]

Excellent supercell and possible tornado signatures on SRV immediately East of Pratt, KS as of 8:56pm EST. Might be some tubes coming out of it. Nice storm. Checking reports now.........

 

[Chad Ringley]

Excellent supercell and possible tornado signatures on SRV immediately East of Pratt, KS as of 8:56pm EST. Might be some tubes coming out of it. Nice storm. Checking reports now.........
[/b]

That's actually the same updraft/supercell from the eariler Comanche/Barber Co. Storm from about an hour ago. Looks like it absorbed the convection to the W and has taken over the enviornment in SW KS. Hopefully someone is on it....

 

[HAltschule]

Indeed, that storm is very impressive. At last glance, the tornadic supercell between Pratt and Medicine Lodge is showing an extremely nice hook. This storm appears to be transtioning into the best play right now.

EDIT: This is the same cell that has a VIL of 80!!!! WHOA.

 

[Brett Adair]

Indeed, that storm is very impressive. At last glance, the tornadic supercell between Pratt and Medicine Lodge is showing an extremely nice hook. This storm appears to be transtioning into the best play right now.

EDIT: This is the same cell that has a VIL of 80!!!! WHOA.
[/b]

The storms is most definately becoming outflow dominant and a huge wind damge threat. Also, VIL of 80 has to be making some 3-4" hailstones there.

EDIT: Radar grab indicating 1.75" hail and it's not in the core of the overhang.

 

[HAltschule]

That cell now has hail of 2.50" as per the latest doppler scan. The storm also has a persistent TVS marker and a nice hook. Seeing as though the storm is likely being influenced somewhat by the outflow boundary from the supercell to the north of it, it will likely have an enhanced shear environment and better tornado threat.

EDIT: Up to 3.25" hail now.

EDIT #2: Tornado Warning now issued for the county between Pratt & Kingman, KS.

EDIT #3: Pratt County, KS: 55kts of Gate to Gate Shear with TVS marker. Highly likely that supercell has a tornado on the ground right now.