4/01/06 NOW: KS/OK/TX

[Kevin Walter]

Todd, initiation is happening in the C TX Panhandle, and instability seems to be plenty for severe cells. As the storms move into SW OK, parameters (Td, backing of winds, etc) seem to be a little better for discrete torndadic cells. If you don't feel like driving to the border and back, you could probably just stay just W of Lawton and cherry pick the cell you want. However, this may give you limited daytime viewing for your chase. And though parameters are better there, they aren't too dang bad over here...so I'd keep heading west. That's just me though. Good luck!

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Currently sitting in Altus, anxiety watching the cell trying to develop into extreme nw Harmon county just WNW of us.

Still have some hopes, but a little dissappointed about low Tds not making it farther west. I guess we sit and wait. The stuff southwest of us is looking multicell at the time, and it's removed from the stronger lowlevel flow IIRC.

 

[Brett Adair]

Looking at initiation....Altus-Lawton OK is where I would be sitting with expected supercell moving in that direction within the next 2 hours. Tornado threat will become more established there as instability axis has been in place longer, and stronger low level shear values are present. I think that stuff SW of Childress is only the beginning. Also, the further east you go the inversion is holding pretty firm from ICT-OUN-DFW. Looks like tornadic threat will become higher by 23-00z.

 

[Marc Austin]

One very dominant storm has taken shape southwest of Childress. This storm bears watching for further organization especially since it will be moving into the more favorable shear environment. Kevin Walter and any other chasers, good luck. This storm might be the one to keep a serious eye on.

 

[Todd Rasmuson]

NEW MESO DISC SAYS " AREA PROFILERS INDICATE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT WITH 50+ KT
MID LEVEL FLOW ABOVE 3 KM ACROSS W TX. LOW LEVEL JET/850 FLOW IS
ALSO INCREASING AND WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS. THUS...STORM STRUCTURE SHOULD
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH TIME...WITH THREAT OF TORNADOES
INCREASING WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0393.html


i think there is a REALLY REALLY good threat now of long lived tornadoes
across sw into central ok between 6 pm and midnight... might see i could be wrong
a pds tornado watch for an area of sw into central ok issued in a bit, anyone else agree with me
on that?

iam gonna go a bit west of lawton, sit up about 30 mi w of there wait this out for awhile

EDIT: also wanted to note dewpoint readings near childress at 56 while when you get altus
to the east they are getting into the middle to some locations even upper 60s!! so these
really could start exploding over towards lawton later, esp with spc sayin wind fields are
getting stronger...

 

[Jeff Snyder]

NEW MESO DISC SAYS " AREA PROFILERS INDICATE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT WITH 50+ KT
MID LEVEL FLOW ABOVE 3 KM ACROSS W TX. LOW LEVEL JET/850 FLOW IS
ALSO INCREASING AND WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS. THUS...STORM STRUCTURE SHOULD
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH TIME...WITH THREAT OF TORNADOES
INCREASING WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0393.html


i think there is a REALLY REALLY good threat now of long lived tornadoes
across sw into central ok between 6 pm and midnight... might see i could be wrong
a pds tornado watch for an area of sw into central ok issued in a bit, anyone else agree with me
on that?

iam gonna go a bit west of lawton, sit up about 30 mi w of there wait this out for awhile
[/b]

Low-level shear is marginal to moderate, but LCLs are high (20-30F dewpoint depressions), which will likley inhibit long-lived/strong tornadoes (along with marginal 30-35kt deeplayer shear). Said shear will increase in time, as will low-level shear, and boundary layer RH will increase as the surface cools (we're at or beyond peak heating attm). However, I highly, highly doubt they'll replace this with a PDS watch (I'll almost gaurantee it). We'll see.

Surface moisture is mixing out unfortunately, with very little in the way of Tds >62 north or west of I44. ASOS obs nearby are mid-60s, but I think that's incorrect. All mesonet sites show nothing above 63F in southwestern or western OK, with the higher Tds remaining near SC OK.

 

[rdale]

Cell just northwest of Paducah TX looks worse than the one next to it currently being warned... AE has 2.75" hail with it.

 

[Chad Ringley]

Stronger mid level flow might finally be arriving, as several cells are starting to gain some organization. Muliple chase groups on the cell in N Greer/S Beckham, Co. OK. Radar trends way up (VILs, dBZs, SREV, and Echo Tops).

 

[Marc Austin]

The cell southwest of Sayre,OK is showing very slight signs of rotation. This is one to watch and seems to be getting more organized as it moves into the favorable shear/moisture area.

 

[rdale]

Minimal overhang on it and not detecting much if any rotation. That's not the same cell as the one SW of Childress you originally said would be the one to watch.

AE says 3.3" hail with it though!

 

[Marc Austin]

Cell southwest of Sayre,OK still getting better organized. Base radial velocities looking better. I wouldn't be suprised if this storm becomes tornado warned within the next hour or so... Again, this is just a guess, but it seems to be one of the stronger cells out there right now.

 

[rdale]

Base radial velocities looking better. I wouldn't be suprised if this storm becomes tornado warned
[/b]

You wouldn't use base velocities for rotation analysis - use storm relative. They are pretty weak nonetheless, but reflectivity looking a little better for meso formation.

 

[Marc Austin]

Minimal overhang on it and not detecting much if any rotation. That's not the same cell as the one SW of Childress you originally said would be the one to watch.

AE says 3.3" hail with it though!
[/b]

Yes, I was beginning to think the cell sw of Childress was getting more organized, but I have very little in the way technical meteorological skill. It looked like the cluster of cells was beginning to merge and form one discrete supercell. As you said, though, I was wrong.

 

[Chad Ringley]

Multiple chasers (sounds like all of the Oklahoma groups) that I've talked to have positioned themselves near Carter, OK and points W as the cell in S Beckham County stengthens. Minimal visual rotation at this point from what I've been told, but certainly looks like it's gonna give it a go. Some HAM reports of tennis ball size hail and larger reported a few minutes ago.

EDIT: WDU Updated from OUN at 515pm CST:

"STORM OVER FAR SOUTHERN BECKHAM COUNTY SHOWING SIGNS OF HP
EVOLUTION...AIDED BY UPSTREAM ANVIL SEEDING FROM COTTLE COUNTY
COMPLEX. VOLUMETRIC Z AND BROAD SHEAR SIGNATURES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
LARGE TO GIANT HAIL THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN BECKHAM COUNTY. REPORTS
OF COLD RFD WOULD SUPPORT MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND
EVENT WITH OUTFLOW DOMINATED STORM."

High precip-latent RFD now showing up on radar, and my most recent call confrimed with what is being call an "amazing precip core". Outflow dominant'ed!

 

[David Wolfson]

FWIW, it looks like the Carter cell is likely to get polluted by the cluster near Childress. On the other hand the cluster seems to be concentrating and remaining tail-end. I'd be heading for the Quanah - Altus corridor if I were there now.