3/31/08 FCST: OK/MO/IL/AR/TX

[Bill Hark]

After looking at the March 31 00Z run of the WRF, I am considering the more southern part of my two target areas. The WRF is showing more of a low developing over the Texas panhandle and shifting southeastward. The model is also showing a dryline bulge centered over the OK/TX border. With the CAPE bullseye in that same area, I am shifting my primary target to Ardmore, OK. My original primary target of Coffeyville, KS will have veered winds and the precip area of my original focus has shifted to near Tahlequah, OK. That area has SW surface winds. My original secondary target of Sherman, TX is too far east and will be south of the dryline bulge.

Bill Hark

 

[Scott Weberpal]

My meager hope for a decent chase day tomorrow is being uplifted slightly with the 00z WRF indicating stronger than previous moisture return into SE Iowa and much of IL by 21z. Appears that 2 mitigating factors 1) veered sfc flow 2) ongoing convection, will inhibit any solid chance for isolated supercells within a 6-7 (or more) hour drive for me. If I'm going to spend that money on gas, I'll wait until June and drive 6-7 hours to SD or Eastern NE. In all liklihood, I'll roll the dice and play the I-72 corridor west of Springfield in hopes that a miracle break in ongoing convection yields a boost in 0-3 km CAPE. As witnessed on 4-20-04, storms in Illinois don't care much about their ambient environment, just their ability to rise and rotate down low

SBCAPE on the order of 750 j/kg may be all the boys need tomorrow.

If by chance the warm front lifts as fast as storms move tomorrow, there might be a game...now I'm just dreaming.

 

[Adam Penney]

I am currently sitting in Wichita, KS this morning, about to depart for SC Oklahoma. Parameters look to becoming together today for a widespread severe outbreak across C/SC/E Oklahoma, SE Kansas, and SW Missouri. All modes of severe weather are possible today, with the greatest threat of tornadoes across the Eastern half of Oklahoma.

Chase Target: Ardmore, Ok

Initiaion time: 2-3 pm

Discussion: The area around Ardmore,ok looks to be the best area, IMO. Forecasted SBCAPE values should be nearing 2500-3000 j/kg by 21 z per the latest RUC. Shear proflies look good in this area, as winds look to back for a period of a few hours this afternoon. Although, it does not look like to me that the latest run of the RUC is showing the development of a surface low in western Oklahoma(I am still learning on developing my own forecasts, so other, more experienced chasers maybe could chime in on that, and correct me if I am wrong). This could hurt the possibility of backed winds. Solid Mid 60 dewpoint temperatures already in place this morning across target area. Supercells appear likely across the target area, as 35+ knot 850mb flow is forecast to prevail in the storm environment just east of the dryline over Eastern OK for at least a few hours until 21z, with tornadoes certainly a possibility.

This is my first chase of the 2008 season, so needless to say im pumped for some storms. Good luck to everyone today!

 

[Karen Politte]

Well I can't chase today as I'm going to be scraping the bottom of the vacation barrel to get out into the Plains in May, but...

Latest run of the RUC seems to have initialized well w/r/t the placement of the cold front and available moisture - but it does paint a very ana-frontal picture for today's setup. With the somewhat-surging cold front overtaking the dryline to a large degree, we will need to see if the advertised (weak) secondary surface low that is progged to develop along the front in the Red River vicinity can materialize. If this can occur, and we can get some storms to remain isolated through sundown, perhaps there may be an area of backed surface flow to give a helping hand to any convection that is already in progress. Farther south, also, I would hope that the moisture would be a bit deeper and more significant. Rich CAPE finally shows it's face around 0Z on the OK-TX border, which will fuel-infect any storms that happen to be around at the time. My target for this area would be along a corridor from Wichita Falls, TX - Hugo, OK.

If I were chasing from home today, however, I would be seriously interested in the area just west of Fort Smith - somewhere between Sallisaw, OK and Stilwell, OK. Chase terrain isn't the best that's for sure - although around the river there are quite a few flat fields that afford better views. I feel that, in reality, the highest severe threat and threat for supercells will translate eastwards as the front marches on, and this essentially puts eastern OK/western AR under the gun for late afternoon/early evening and ovenight.

I will be interested to see how this plays out in my two targets.

KP

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Had been thinking of targeting the Ardmore area, but based on what I'm seeing I think the main chaseable show (if there is one) will be JUST south of the red river. I like everything about the setup EXCEPT the extremely weak and veered LL's wind shear is extremely uni-directional. Though with the instability that will be present, it might be worth giving it a chance, if nothing else maybe we can find some more baseballs.

 

[Bill Hark]

After reviewing AM data, I am still encouraged for tornadic storms though the window of opportunity will be short. The RUC is still showing the formation of a weak low over the Red River Valley (near Vernon) and the only area of backed winds will be near the low. Instability will be marginal but enough. The dryline punch is a bit east of previous model output. I am worried about ongoing convection. I also don't like the low level 850 jet being further east. The 4KM NMM WRF shows a second line of storms by late afternoon in a NE to SW position (more of a mode). I would like to be at the southernmost part of the anticipated second round of convection and I am targeting Snyder, Oklahoma. There may be other tornadic storms earlier in the day shifting eastward through AR but I don't like the chase territory.

Bill Hark

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Right now the best combo cape, moisture, etc. is located from a Duncan to Ada line. I think at least initially the best chance for some explosive development will be in that area in the coming couple of hours. After I eat a quick lunch I'll be heading south on 35. We'll see, I'm not 100% optimistic in a significant tornado outbreak due to the H85 winds but I think there will be Tornadoes today, just a matter of being able to navigate through the mess and get on the right storm. Motion should be 20-35 depending on the direction the storm is moving (right turner will be slower than a NEwd moving storm).

 

[Bill Tabor]

So far I'm hanging back in Austin. I don't like the veered 850mb flow either. Granted there may be a few torns - somewhere - likely toward MO as has been the case with the warnings so far.

I am encouraged with some forecast soundings for tail end in TX though. While certainly nothing great, it may be worth driving north a bit just to see what I can see. 4km WRF seems to indicate a fairly large clump of storms later this afternoon which eventually look a bit linear. Maybe something before that point though. Other than that, perhaps better waiting for another day.

Good luck to the rest of you.

 

[Kenny Drake]

I expect cells to initiate in N TX/SC OK over the next hour or two as a shortwave currently in W. TX. begins to influence the area and add vertical forcing. Directional shear per NAM forecast sounding for Ardmore is anything but perfect (backing winds with height btwn 700 and 400mb) but speed shear could make up for it. I would be along I-35 near the Red River Valley awaiting initiation. Storm movement will initially be to the northeast at a fast clip but any cells that can become better established will tend to turn right (more to the east) and likely slow down a tad. This will help ingest better SR Helicity. SPC Mesoanalysis tells me to go to Ardmore and wait. This is if I were to chase today (I cannot.) Good luck to those going out and be safe. I think there is a slight chance for a sig. tor today in SE OK/NE TX but I'm not really impressed with the directional shear and the SW wind at 850mb.

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

I am sitting in St. Charles, MO right now (working obviously) and I am suprised some of these storms are maintaining rotation as they head up the 44 corridor. I wasn't banking on much today, but I may get some action if they hold together. Currently it looks like they are leaving an environment with better instability, but maintaining a environment high in shear. I think that things will eventually evolve into a big heavy rain making MCS and that is the last thing this area needs.

 

[Paul Redmond]

Since I am also stuck at work and cannot blast north into OK, I am keeping my fingers crossed for some action further south in central texas along the dry line, within a shorter driving distance. Depending on your choice of models, the dry line could be in the vicinity of a Junction to Abelene line by late afternoon, with sufficient mixing to make leave work early a temptation. Action this far south will obviously not be as promising in terms of tubes, given the greater parameters to the north and the likely focus of energy there. Still it just may be worth expending the gas money. My target would be Lampassas. Good luck to all chasing today. An stay safe.

Update, SPC seems to have just confirmed my suspicions for central texas, grant a bit further north than I was suggesting. Hmm I may leave work a little earlier than planned.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

Sitting in Pauls Valley, Oklahoma right now (about halfway between OKC and Ardmore on I35). Lots of towers going up over us and to the West. I think we'll just stay put and wait for something to get going. I don't know what they're struggling with. There shouldn't be much if any of a cap left. Big bullseye right now is in the Ardmore area, so anything going up West or SW of there should be in good shape. That's my plan at least and I sticking to it.

 

[Derek Weston]

Sitting at home in Iowa City Iowa. 69deg/63dwp. Sun has been peaking through. SE Iowa is a sleeper spot right now. Shear should good, and it's juicy now after clearing off.

Hopefully some close to home fun unfolding in the next few hours.