3/31/07 FCST: TX, LA, OK, AR, MS, MO, IA, IL

[Travis Carlson]

Good luck chasers tomorrow...Looks like around 11:00AM I'll be heading southwest toward somewhere in west-central illinois. Really interesting setup...however still concerned about cloud cover. That is my biggest concern...everything else looks fairly decent. This one is definately worth chasing especially on a weekend Well good luck everybody and be safe.

 

[Brian Stertz]

I am favoring SW/WC Iowa

Too many favorable parameters to ignore stacking up across SW/WC Iowa. The window of opportunity may be fairly short as this appears to be driven by a cold core setup with the approach of the main upper low. STP values are pretty high for this high shear...lower instability event by mid afternoon near Carroll IA ...and that is my target at this point. I guess we shall see if this will become a reality tomorrow.

 

[Jayson Prentice]

I'm right on with Brian, this low setup looks to be the favorable place with nice shear/instability combination really. 0-3 km CAPE is great along the front pushing east during the afternoon hours, although likely a bit overdone. I do see it clearing at least just ahead of this front during the early afternoon hours and that should be all it needs to allow for some nice mini-sups. One thing that concerns me is how quick both the GFS & NAM have this front charging eastward between 21z and 00z... That'll have to be worked out throughout the day tomorrow as we can actually watch it.

Currently based off the latest 00z NAM, my 21z target would be Denison, IA with it shifting off to near Fort Dodge by 00z. The GFS is in fairly good agreement and thus no changes made to the target area with that input.

I have to work until mid-afternoon, then I'll likely head out nearby to hopefully some development.

 

[Ryan Pfannkuch]

wow...all I did tonight was drive from Hastings, NE to my parent's house near Manning, IA in Carroll County and as soon as I log on to the old dial-up connection I see:

1) The NAM siggy tor parameter bullseye is directly over me here at 21z
2) 2 people (Brian and Jayson) throw out target cities within 20 miles of here!

Maybe I need to make that 3 1/2 hour drive more often

All joking aside...The 0z NAM solution with the sfc low just west of here all afternoon looks mighty interesting...as does the intrusion of the 500mb dry slot. I will look at things a lot closer in the morning...but for now I'm thinking it's gonna be very hard for me to leave this general area.​

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Well, things definitely went the opposite of what I was expecting.. SPC has pulled the 15 per, and only left in slight risk becasue of the 5 per TOR probs.. Now I am just trying to find a WFO who is the least pesimistic! Now I have no Idea where to set up! I think it is still chaseable, especially since the tornado threat is elevated.. Im actually thinking about heading Southeast.. My chase partner is tied up until 1130.. so i wont leave until then... still plan on chasing but still to early to plan a target.... everyone take care and good luck!!

 

[Terry Tyler]

with all the cloud cover around, and only %5 probs all the way up into MO, IA...im staying here in mississippi...looks like thats where the higher dewpoints are located...

i sure was looking forward to driving up into central, MO today, but it dont look like thats happening...not for this event...

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Nice dry slot over E. KS at 1045z this morning. Given the speed of the shortwave, should make it to C. MO/SC IL by 18-20z....interesting.

 

[Joel Wright]

Dry slot showing up very nicely now in eastern Kansas. This will accelerate quickly north-northeast into Iowa by this afternoon. The strong dynamics, deepening surface low, and the clearing which should take place by late morning put a smile on my face. Plus it's Saturday lol.

I'm thinking the tornado threat will be a short 3-4 hour window after initiation. These cells are going to want to line up fairly quickly once many of them get going. Any cell that can remain discrete for any length of time will have a pretty good chance at producing I think.

So, where to go? I'm still eyeballing the Ottumwa Iowa area. Initiation will occur southwest of this area, but will very rapidly jet north-northeastward. Anywhere in an arc from west-central to south-central Iowa should be a good place to setup.

For those targeting around the Quad Cities area. I fear by the time the storms get up this way they will have organized into a nice squall line.

Good luck everyone!

 

[Jesse Risley]

Yep, I think this is one where targeting the clear slot is a wise idea. Given the rather strong early spring solar heating potential, I would think that even 60 minutes of clearing in any given area could produce a show. We'll be watching the clearing areas closely in the next six hours.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Heading off to the Harlan-Carroll IA area in a few mins. Like the strong dryslot and this will be lifting n-ne into W.Iowa by late morning to bring about some sunshine to the target zone. 500mb temps are showing in the good -18 to -20 range later today across extreme E.Nebraska and much of W.Iowa. The sunshine and this cold pool ought to make for some very steep lapse rates. Backed easterly surface winds along/north of I-80 should give some excellent turning to these low topped wonders by afternoon. I am liking today's F0/F1 tornado potential more and more as I look over the pre-chase data. I am also getting a bit more concerned about a few dryslot tornadic supercells happening in extreme E. Nebraska today as well. We'll have to keep an eye on this for sure when we get to our data stop up towards Omaha.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

ok. with new SPC outlook.. Im thinking 100 Miles SSW of Des Moines... Be heading out soon..

 

[Tony Lyza]

I'll actually be playing the warm front game today looking at the 0z NAM and 09z RUC runs. Not a whole lot of CAPE projected out here, but, most importantly, much of it is projected to be 0-3km. Decent SRH in this region also helps me favor a Quad Cities-La Salle-Galena triangle this afternoon, perhaps southeastward toward Kankakee. RUC has significant warm-frontal precipitation breaking out prior to 21z, so the current plan is to leave by 11 AM and get to La Salle/Peru by 1 PM.

 

[Jim Zandonai]

The apparent lack of expected heating in NW IL wont do us any favors up here. Apparently the Quad City office isn't even expecting spotter activation in their CWFA.
Looks like you would need to go farther southward to get any chance of a good supercell. IOWA appears to be the best shot now especially in the south half.
Will sit this one out...too far to go for slight risk from my location.. Better chances in APR. and MAY >hopefully.
Good luck to all you guys in the hunt today..

 

[Joel Wright]

Visible satellite is showing lots of breaks in the clouds in the southwest half of Missouri. This area will lift north into much of Iowa by early afternoon with the mid-level dry push. Eventually from central Missouri into southern IA there'll be an area of relatively decent insolation. This will be all we need given the very strong dynamics already in place by then.

This may not be the best setup in the world, but what the hell. It's Saturday and not all that far away, so I'm heading out the door now.

Initial target is Ottumwa IA, but after reviewing data there, may decide to go further west or south depending on how it's looking.

Be safe everyone.

 

[John Farley]

Unless I see something on the 12Z WRF that changes my mind, I expect to be leaving for Kirksville, MO in about the next hour. Extrapolating the satellite trend, I think any area east of a COU to Keokuk line is going to stay too socked in with clouds and gunge to get much heating/instability. I'm not even sure that Kirksville is far enough west, but if need be, I can continue to the W or NW once I get there. I'm not wild about this setup, but with the strong upper winds and some directional shear, I think there are possibilities. My hunch is that it will be better in the area surrounded by a Des Moines-Omaha-Sioux City line, but I can't get that far in time.