Ben Prusia
EF4
ETA is forecasting CAPES of 1500-2000 J/Kg over an area of eastern Oklahoma and eastern Texas, extending eastward to the Mississippi River. Td's progged to be in the lower 60's, along with LI's of -6 from the Texas/Arkansas border southward to the Gulf of Mexico. SPC has slight risk out for the area, but say they may upgrade to moderate risk.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta7...hr_sfc_mslp.gif
72 Hour ETA shows Low developing along the Red River valley just NE of Dallas.
Will wait until 12Z ETA for further discussion from me.
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL ALSO DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...SOME POTENTIALLY LONG TRACK.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta7...hr_sfc_mslp.gif
72 Hour ETA shows Low developing along the Red River valley just NE of Dallas.
Will wait until 12Z ETA for further discussion from me.