3-28-07 FCST: SD / NE / KS / OK / TX

[Mark Farnik]

I'm out the door and enroute to Ogalalla, Nebraska. ETA 12:30 MDT. It's looking mighty fine, ladies and gentleman, it's looking mighty fine!

 

[Mark Oerther]

If this verifies, oh boy...

Gabe

The most important key component of the day is the surface wind direction. Upper-level winds will be there today, as well as the thermodynamic fields, i.e. CAPE, moisture. The WRF and the RUC both have backing surface winds in western OK, KS and the TX panhandle to about 110 from this mornings run. "If this verifies," then the 0-1 km shear will be there for tornadogenesis. Another thing to consider is the proximity of storms to each other. With a SSW 500mb winds and the same at 250mb the anvils of storms may seed storms to the north of it. So I think it would be best to get on the southern most cell or any cell that is free from any anvil seeding.

Mark

 

[Brian Swiatowy]

15Z RUC

Yikes! The 15Z RUC is really putting a halt to the eastern progress of the dryline. It now has about 30 miles west of line from Guymon to Amarillo to Lubbock at 00Z. That means these storms will have even more upper-level support to work with, but not the deeper moisture. If things start lining out too quickly, these storms may not have enough time to get to where the LCLs will be lower and that may reduce the threat for LT/LL tornadoes a bit.

New Day 1 is out...SPC pulled the MDT risk waaaay back to the west. Guess I can sit around here for a while longer and wait until the first tower goes up.

 

[Angie Norris]

Stuck in Norman today due to midterm exam tonight. Otherwise, I'd be headed for a little Panhandle Magic. Shamrock would be a good place to start, as the options are essentially unlimited from there. Good luck to all!!!!

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

In Holderage NE now, gonna most likely head west from here and get over near McCook, we have decent clearing taking place with a few LL clouds screaming to the north.

 

[Jay McCoy]

Lie Bryan I am sitting in Amarillo just waiting for the 1st towers. I was saying last night the dryline would be well west of where the GFS had it. The UK had been showing it west of Amarillo since last night. We had over 5" of rain last thrus/fri/sat in Amarillo. The ground is saturated so the dryline wont mix out east much.

01-k SRH is already at 200 in the central panhandle and 3km is about 150. Not bad for 17z. The RUC has finally picked up the where the dryline is and breaks out storms west of amarillo by 20z with CAPE of 2500 and SRH of 250. LCL"s are dropping fast and should be around 1000 or less. High level clouds are finally breaking up and its clear west of Amarillo allowing some heating.

This could be a very big day for Amarillo and east.

Is this actually March????????

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Well I think I've waited too long on this one seeing as how the latest run of the RUC removes the previous run's breakout of precip ahead of the DL in SW OK. I have considered heading out to Shamrock but still think that will be too far east.

 

[Tony Laubach]

This is painful... I have a class tonight which I have to be there for, and I had damn well better be learning how to turn poop to gold in this class, otherwise I won't be a happy camper! LOL

Looking over the current conditions and its amazing how well things are looking in just about every quadrent of this setup. If I could leave now, I'd be fine with a Goodland target. I've been on the phone with Verne Carlson and instructed him to quit moving east and hold in Liberal for the time being. My reasoning was the SFC winds seemed better in SW Kansas as opposed to western Oklahoma/panhandles. I'm thinking those will change with time, and if they do, he's not out of the way being in Liberal.

LCLs are slowly moving down with time and temps are crawling up into the 70s south and mid to upper 60s north. Dews already looking good.

My virtual target for today would be Liberal, KS; my "if-I-left-now" target would be Goodland to Colby on I-70. I wouldn't be surprised to see both go up today. Nothing like nailing two targets on a day you're stuck at home... my class better be good!

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

Target Zone AMA-CDS

Storms will fire along the I-27 corridor AMA-LBB by 20Z then move NE. The area from AMA E/SE towards CDS in the 21Z-3Z looks PRIME for tornados. All SPC Mesoscale are focusing near and E/SE of the AMA area for significant tornados after 20Z time frame. I will NOT be chasing today but I would love to be on the cap rock today.

JP.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Blasting on I35 right now. I'm near Emporia, got a real late start. GRRR. But we are blasting towards SW Kansas and just going to drive as west as we can before initiation and adjust from there. I'm impressed with this setup to say the least. We are in for quite a treat! Good luck to everyone chasing today!!!!!!!

 

[David Wolfson]

[Great virtual chase case day!] I'll be virtually pulling into Childress in a little while, having escaped SJT early for the full-day drive toward DDC. My Phoenix nowcaster tells me to keep on what I'm doing at a lawful pace, check some data in CDS, and continue north on US83. The vis suggests something is going to try to break east of the caprock somewhere or other in the next hour or two, but the first will probably not be the best. In any event they'll be zipping NNE at 35kts or so and I'd rather not be playing catch-up. FWIW.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Starting to see the dryline/boundry taking shape on Goodland's radar (GRLevel3). Looks to be N/S from the Yuma/Washington County, Colorado line across I-70 into Cheyenne County, CO.

 

[Tony Laubach]

SPC has issued an MD for entire Texas Panhandle southward towards I-20...

SFC conditions continue to improve in the area as CU fields are starting to go up in the extreme western OK Panhandle and extreme NE Texas Panhandle.

Dryline setting up nicely in extreme eastern Colorado as well. Expect intiation in southern target within next two hours.

 

[Kenny Drake]

I myself will be sitting this one out as I happen to have a Dynamics exam at 4pm, but if I were chasing I would be hanging out around Childress, TX right about now. The mesoscale WRF precip model run from last night shows precip breaking out over the TX/OK border in SW OK. Current Vis Sat. shows clearing over the mentioned area with possible Cu going up over Childress. Latest short term from OUN WFO mentions the possibility of convection in this area well ahead of the dryline (currently in the western panhandle). 11am RUC analysis shows the edge of a Theta-E ridge extending from north central portions of the TX panhandle SE to Altus and E to Lawton, OK. Td's in the eastern panhandle and SW OK are generally in the low to mid 60s while Tds are a rather weak mid 50s just ahead of the dryline. I feel that the dryline forming farther west than models previously progged may be problematic for tornado development in cells along the dryline until they move into the richer moisture in the eastern panhandle. If the dryline reaches its farthest extent anywhere west of Amarillo I will be weary of seeing the best structure and tornadoes prior to dark (about 7:30PM CDT under cloud-cover).

It is also worth mentioning that a MD was just issued for areas along and ahead of the dryline in TX with watch expected shortly, probably tornado watch.

EDIT: NAM Forecast sounding for Childress looks quite impressive too with 4000J/kg of CAPE in an uncapped environment:
http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace.cgi?model=NAM&fcsthr=012&STATIONID=_KCDS

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Dryline making itself apparent on the OK mesonet loop. Dewpoints dropping into the 30s in the OK panhandle with DPs in the upper 60s in SW OK.