3/27/10 FCST: KS/OK/TX

[Jeff House]

The cold core setup looks messy, as already well covered above. Moisture is my main concern farther south. Models likely missing convection firing but it will be high based due to high LCLs. I can't see anything better than what we saw in Texas Wed. It will just happen farther north. Good day to stay home and watch basketball. Maybe the following weekend when we have a real trough out West and open Gulf for for a few days before the potential event. If going, chase safe on a crowded weekend day. Good luck!

 

[Scott Olson]

I am surprised at how favorably everything has come along. UA 500mb analysis indicates an area of -24.5C tempatures to the east of the upper low with heating occuring creating the possibility of increased low level lapse rates. Area on visible sattelite shows some decent clearing. I'm focused on the area in extreme SE KS (Oswega, Independence) near the triple point where abudant vorticity is present and 0-3km CAPE should begin to climb in the next couple hours. The areas into SW MO and NW AR as well as NE OK should do well. The NSSL WRF showed the most action in AR (and near Little Rock) but current analysis has me favoring a more classic SE KS. Expect intiation to begin in about 3 hours.

 

[Niccolò Ubalducci]

Hello everyone.

If I were them, my target would be preliminary Joplin - Missouri. It has a good option for the triple point (situated by WRF on Kansas/Missouri borderline), and it has a good option for return to SE in AK for the ColdFront.