3/25/11 FCST: OK, KS

[JF Massicotte]

While it seems to be the loner, the GFS keeps setting up a dryline play in OK and KS. There is some run to run divergence concerning the exact zone, but it keeps adding some CAPE and eroding CAP near the dryline bulge.


However, there is some lack in upper lift with the trough further West, but some good shear. This could be a nice slight risk play.


Threat doesn't seem to be well supported by other models, but the GFS seem to have been showing some good consistency with the overall pattern. I think that at this point the day is worth some discussion.

 

[Doug Drace]

I have been keeping an eye for several days now as well. The thing that bothers me the most right now is that the Dryline Bulge GFS is putting out appears to be in what I consider to be unfavorable chase territory in NE Oklahoma, at least as of the lastest run this morning. If you like chasing in the East it probably looks more promising to you than me...just my personal preference to stay in the flatter, less tree infested areas West of I-35. 4 days ago the entire zone of highest CAPE (which yesterdays run was painting as high as 2900 J/kg) and 60's DP's, was completely west of I-35, mainly from south of Woodward to Altus down into NW Texas. As of now the only play that wouldn't be in the sticks of the East, would be on the southern end of the DL in the Witchita Falls/N Texas area, but the CAP looks stronger there to me, instability is better with SB CAPE near 1900...but the better 60's DP's are pretty much from I-35 East, with maybe some 55ish closer to the DL in N. Texas around Witchita Falls to the SSW. This entire setup looked pretty promising to me 4 days ago, but the trends have been to continuously speed this whole thing up. When I first started looking at this on the 10 day GFS, I was looking at Saturday as possibly a Day before the Day with Sunday the being the Main Event in Western Oklahoma...now it's sped up to Friday in the East...for those reasons, unless something slams on the brakes with this one, I don't hold out much hope of chasing on friday. A lot can change over the next 4-5 days though, so im not going to write off the possibilities with this one...if there are a few subtle (Slower) solutions in the next few days.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

*SLEEPER ALERT*

Im officially putting Friday on notice as being a sleeper day. Being keeping a close eye on the models for the last 24 hours and Im liking what im seeing so far. Moisture will be returning NWRD overnight Thursday, bulk shear will be increasing, and capping will not be incredibly thermonuclear like weve seen in OK the last month or so. With each run of the SREF it keeps spitting out about 1000-1500 J of CAPE across C/SRN OK during peak heating. Now granted there wont be any sig s/wv blasting thru but that will actually be a good thing. Looking at forecast soundings, Im only seeing 90 J max of CINH which is breakable. If we can enough heating and convergence along the DL which should be oriented roughly along an OKC to SPS line then severe storms are a good bet. This will def not be an outbreak day, more classic low-end SLT risk isolated cap day. Additionally storm motions will be well within reason so no rocket ships needed for your chase vehicle.

If everything holds with the models and what not, I will def be making a trip N to OK.

 

[W. Grant Dade]

I am also thinking this could be a sleeper day. I like the balance of 0-6km shear (40-45 kts) and MLCAPE (~1250J/kg) per the 12Z NAM. 0-1km shear is not as strong as I would like but if a storm does fire along the dryline, a nice photogenic supercell could develop. Lid strength is forecast to be between 1c-2c so the cap should be breakable. The 12Z GFS is even a little better with CAPE and lid strength along with better low level shear. I am looking around KSPS. We shall see. I would expect at least a "See Text" tomorrow in this area and probably a wait and see approach to a severe weather forecast, much like Lubbock on Saturday.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Still not 100% sure Ill be heading out today and its almost 10:30. Might come down to last minute decision based on sfc obs, satellite, and SPC.

12z NAM has sfc dryline bulge right along Red River at I-35 and the 4km WRF seems to agree with this as well as it paints a nice monster supercell right over the I-35 Red River crossing or just a hair East. Now the RUC and HRRR seems to favor the Dallas to McKinney area for first signs of convection. Not sure how much stock I put into that right now but that could also happen but u get too far E of Dallas and u might as well forget it with trees/road network. The one thing in all of this that pisses me off is the veered winds at the sfc, most def do not like that, that and the NE flow on the back side of the dryline that some models are spitting out, as if the dryline is more of a shallow CF. Either way I think the HWY 75 corridor is going to be your best bet today if your in N TX.

Good luck to everyone heading out.

Mods: Please add TX to thread, thanks