3/25/04: FCST: TX / OK / KS / NE / SD / MN / IA / WI

[nickgrillo]

when will severe weather finally hit Detroit? :?

Anyways, the heartland looks like it's gonna get storms tomorrow / with a slight risk from the SPC.

discuss thursday's system:
(TX/OK/KS/NE/SD/MN/IA/WI)

 

[David Draun]

I was wondering when there would be a new forecast thread. But, it looks loke supercell and tornado prospects are low. However there are supposed to be thunderstorms in that area for the next 5-6 days.

 

[nickgrillo]

I was wondering when there would be a new forecast thread. But, it looks loke supercell and tornado prospects are low. However there are supposed to be thunderstorms in that area for the next 5-6 days.

this has never been the case with michigan. :? :lol:

anyways - either way, if i lived in that area i would be happy to get out to see a microburst. i would worry about not seeing a tornado in may.

 

[David Draun]

Well, say goodbye to that slight risk.

 

[rdale]

"Well, say goodbye to that slight risk."

Why? I haven't done a complete 12Z analysis yet but what I see so far isn't leading me to declare no severe weather today. Just like last night indicated, it still looks like isolated severe storms in the northern Plains are possible towards this evening. Why do you think there won't be any sevwx?

 

[David Draun]

I'm no expert, but the first outlook I saw this morning showed CAPE at less than 1000 J/kg, and the SLGT risk areas were replaced by SEE TEXT. Yesterday's day2 outlook showed up to 25% probabilities of severe thunderstorms in the upper MS valley within 25 miles of a point. I didn't say I thought there would be no severe weather today. There probably will, but like you said it will be isolated. Isn't the capping inversion too strong to prevent surface-based convection? There are some severe thunderstorms in Minnesota and South Dakota right now. They have warnings for hail and wind.

 

[David Draun]

I take that back! New slight risk for MN and SD. SPC wording includes "surface based convection as cap weakens." Perhaps a possible weather watch issued for this area? MD 212. http://spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0212.html

 

[rdale]

"I didn't say I thought there would be no severe weather today. "

Sorry for putting words in your post - I assumed that when you said there no longer was a chance that you meant "no chance" ;>

 

[Robert Dewey]

Nick...I just got done looking at the latest 12Z ETA from today, and the 60HR forecast looks decent for the Great Lakes. Looking at the wind profile...There is pretty good directional shear/veering in the lowest 0-3km...since SFC winds in eastern lower MI are straight out from the southeast, turning more southwesterly with height. Wind aloft from 850mb above are around 50knts, so speed shear is the best between the sfc and about 850mb. SFC temps are around 60F-65F, with Td in the mid 50's to near 60F across IN/OH/southern MI, which is decent for this area this time of year. Have yet to look at CAPE parameters, but LI looks like it nudges down to -2C...But I think we will have to do better than that for any significant convection. ETA also outputs QPF in a linear fashion, indicating that a squall line or organized convection is possible, but we will just have to see about that.

Robert