3/21/07 NOW: NE/KS/MO

[Brian Stertz]

Waiting for development in the next few hours...sitting in the Wilber NE library northeast of the triple point. Low level clouds scooting northeast have shown some of the classic curling features on the tops in the last hour. Looks like the best supercell threat will be the area between Beatrice & Omaha based on latest severe wx parameters. Will sit tight and wait on things to gel here. No development on satellite (still well capped behind morning wave) but boundary shows up well from Grand Island northeast towards the Columbus NE area.

 

[Tyler_Costantini]

We are sitting in Hiawatha, KS in a Subway looking at some low clouds we just broke into the sun here... Watching fof some tripple point action, I do see some low typical "poofy" clouds.

 

[J.B. Dixon]

Sitting here at home in Seward, and from the looks of it, this CF just doesn't have much to work with. There's just not enough forcing to overcome this cap right now, and when it does go, I think the show's already over with the speed of the CF. I suppose I could book it down Hwy 2 towards Neb. City for later initiation, but to see what??

The southern target guys might have a chance....

 

[Van DeWald]

Sitting in Fairbury, NE. Cu field here is struggling, pretty flat. I see some towers through the haze well to the northeast, probably up by Omaha, but down here, the cap is holding strong. Still think we need the cold front to bust the cap, and it may be a couple of hours away still down here near the KS border.

Van

Edited, just read the 457 pm MCD which pretty much confirms my suspicions. Cap is holding strong, need forcing from the front to bust it. Still think I'm going to sit tight, hang between here and Beatrice.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

MD has been issued, but doesn't exactly inspire a lot of confidence. Reference is made to strong cap and necessity for strong forcing to initiate storms. Also goes with the thinking in here that mode may initially be supercellular, but transition to linear before long. Something special needs to happen to break the cap today.

Edit - look out west of OAX ... looks pretty good all the sudden on radar.

 

[Jim Placzek]

Couple of Severe T-storms have developed west of Omaha. It looks like these are already becoming linear. Mostly looking for some hail, maybe gusty winds.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Ok - looks like the line runs from south of SUX to the southwest about 30 mi. west of OAX. Looks like cap breakage to me up there... elevated for now, but could change soon. They may maintain isolation for a bit - some distance between cells. It would be enough if the wind is right, and I haven't looked at that at all, so can't really say if they have a shot or not.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

eh ... I don't know ... I just took a look at shear and it's not looking overly optimistic to me in the area those storms are firing ...

Skew-t out of OAX is looking like weak surface winds to me. Our BL winds are kicking in KC - maybe you'll get some pretty soon. Personally, if I was in the area up there, I don't think I'd mess with the northern storms yet. I'd probably hang out closer to SE Nebraska and hope for a better wind environment than what's showing up to the north right now.

Edit - you do have a watch now ... but it's a good ol' severe t-storm watch ... only reference to tornadoes is the standard 'sometimes severe t-storms can and do produce' language.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

You can make out the dryline on radar. Seems to branch off from the cold front in Seward Co NE and extends down sw into Fillmore and Nuckolls Co in S NE then down into Jewell and Osborne Co in n Ks. To me it looks like the cap is too strong along the dryline. Convection initiation seems to be in Seward Co where the front and dryline come together. From there the storms are riding the cold front and going linear. Nothings popping through that lid on the dryline, matter of fact looking at the vis sat all im seeing is a high cirrus deck over the area of the dryline .

 

[Reed Timmer]

I'm on the cell just north of I-80...and it looks rather impressive. Nice crisp base with a well defined rain shaft, and even a wall cloud with rapidly rising scud next to the shaft.

My exact position can be seen on my gps tracker:

http://tornadovideos.net/index.cfm/do/s.LiveTracker

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Cool Reed - I was just looking at that cell. Decent isolation there and rather nice on radar, though a bit elongated-looking. Getting some good lightning returns on it now. Hopefully it will spin for you before the southern flank fills in (looks like it might be trying to).

 

[Jordan Hartley]

The cell Ne of Lincoln has taken on a hook in the last couple of frames. I dont see any real strong rotation on radar. Reed your GPS is still saying your parked right off of I-80. Cant you see whats going on with that cell to your ne?

Edit: Taking a look at the Hastings radar the cell NE of Licoln Nebraska in Saunders Co has some rotation with it. I think this will be the show!!! Holy crap in the last 4 frames the three dominate cells around Lincoln, Ne and extending SW started spinning all of a sudden. You see I just dont know these storm are looking discrete they dont seem to want to go linear right at this moment.

*The north side of Lincoln needs to keep an eye on that storm to the west of town.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

The cell to the north is showing a meso, and I'd say the Lincoln storm has been showing more signs of rotation. No hard meso indicated yet, but that doesn't mean there isn't one there. It has been trying to hook a bit. The storm to the south is still the tail end storm, by the way, and I'd guess that it has the best chance of developing a meso.

 

[Bob Schafer]

From SPC meso-analysis, that stuff invof Lincoln ought to be pretty high-based. LCL>1250m. Hodo would be pretty ugly, with sfc winds from SW. Nice CAPE for March 21: >1500.

ESRH reaches ~200 a bit E of there, and LCL's drop. Best chance for *interesting* wx may come in an hour or so, IF the activity can get E of the CF.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

That explains the presistant hook echo on radar and the lack of rotation within these thunderstorms. Something to note that the storm that produced the tornadoes in E KS and W MO on 2/28 didnt get its act together for several hours. Then some 3 hours later it started spinning them up left and right. Might see the same here tonight who knows.