3/21/05 NOW: TX, OK, AR, LA, MS

OK, we have storms firing already SW of Dallas and severe thunderstorm warnings are in effect, so I figured I might as well go ahead and get a NOW thread started for today's action.
 
BIG CLUSTER OF STORMS AROUND THE DFW REGION CURRENTLY. Some have well defined signatures on radar, but it's all a cluster of storms right now. About 50-75 miles behind that, the squall line forms with storms rapidly going up all along the line.
 
Reading through some of the AFD's, San Antonio is saying that there will be a second batch of storms generated later today along the dryline, while it sounds like Norman is saying this morning batch will be the show. I really hope the main show isn't the stuff that's ongoing right now, otherwise I'm afraid there won't be much of a show. There will be lots of severe weather I'm sure, but I doubt it'd be a chasers paradise exactly.
 
I definitely think that this current batch isn't the main event...I think the Norman AFD writer is in error. SPC forecasts new storms to form this afternoon in the form of discrete supercells with tornado potential...so I think the thinking is still the same (I am not sure what the AFD writer was thinking).

At any rate, good clearing associated w/ the dry slot has occurred. So, barring any unforeseen convection, we should be in good shape as far as insolation is concerned.

Gabe
 
Yea it looks like this stuff already fizzled out. No new warnings in almost a half hour; Radar returns showing just rain for the most part.
 
I definitely think that this current batch isn't the main event...I think the Norman AFD writer is in error. SPC forecasts new storms to form this afternoon in the form of discrete supercells with tornado potential...so I think the thinking is still the same (I am not sure what the AFD writer was thinking).

At any rate, good clearing associated w/ the dry slot has occurred. So, barring any unforeseen convection, we should be in good shape as far as insolation is concerned.

Gabe

I'd bet he is seeing as the OUN HWO mentions a second round of convection later today as well :D

As for me, I'm leaving in about two hours for North Central Texas it looks.
 
This early stuff was just the first round of convection ahead of the approaching system and was referenced in the outlook language as only preliminary activity prior to the expected show later this afternoon as the dryline becomes active. Chasers should watch the dryline and work their way a few miles ahead of the bulge. This thread should probably either die and be resurrected with the real show later, or go bye bye for now. :)
 
OK, just checked the Norman AFD and HWO's again and that wording I saw earlier has been changed. The way it was worded earlier made it sound like this morning's batch of storms that were developing would form a line and start moving east, being the main round of storms for the day. Glad that isn't the case!

That stuff now seems to be dying down, especially in TX and with any luck we'll get some nice heating and insulation taking place.

BTW, sorry if starting this thread early has created any problems. I just figured it was justified being there was severe weather in progress along with a watch being issued. That's seems the usual procedure around here.
 
This is just a reminder to review that special Target Area forum guidelines and rules at http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1039 ... While all copied/pasted NWS products above have been cut down to include only the relevant information, it is Target Area policy (and generally good practice) to make a comment on the information being copy/pasted. All of us reading the NOW posts are most likely already aware of things like SPC outlooks, watches, etc... So, there probably isn't a big need to post NWS products (warnings, watches, severe weather statements) unless it's really something to talk about (e.g. a warning mentioning volleyball-sized hail, or an AFD mentioning 110mph wind potential, etc).

(3) Prohibited content. Stormtrack strives for a very high signal/noise ratio in Target Area since many chasers use this forum on the road and can't sift through pages of fluff. These items are prohibited and will result in Target Area privilege suspension:
-- NOAA/NWS products or bulletins posted in their entirety. If you post such a product, trim it to the bare minimum and always include informational comments.
 
Tornado watch issued for Oklahoma from the Kansas border to the Texas Border. Looks like folks who chose the NW target near the low will get 1st shot at storms.
 
Towers are going up like gangbusters (1915Z) just east of OUN. They look crisp and sharp from the WNI office on Highway 9.

JB
 
Yeah - it's definitely time to bring this thread back to life! ... Note the CU fields now appearing in N-S orientation throughout the length of the watch box ... I'm primarily interested in the southern half of this box right now, where the dryline is bulging to the east. Minis are about to break out down there. The line also extends into Texas, so I wouldn't be surprised by an additional watch soon.
 
Sitting here in Norman about to bust east on Hwy 9 as I observe some beautiful towers quickly shooting up east of here in the vicinity of Shawnee.
 
Yeah - it's definitely time to bring this thread back to life! ... Note the CU fields now appearing in N-S orientation throughout the length of the watch box.

Yeah, I think it's safe to say we've got our instability taken care of. LOL
 
The cells east/southeast of Norman are looking better on satellite. I bet they are some crisp/clean looking CU from the backside ... hopefully someone will post some pics of them - you'll probably be able to get a shot of the whole storm in the frame from the backside that looks similar to my thumbnail pic. Best convergence and backing is still to the south.
 
I like how the cell along I-44 is looking, it looks to be heading towards Chandler. It is starting to look organized on radar, no good rotation showing up however. The storm motion looks to be NE. I think it is or is close to being rooted in the dryline.

That cell to the south of it may have some potential as well that one looks to be around Techumseh area.
 
I love how in these setups like today there is almost ALWAYS a rogue tor warning to the north of the main area of interest, outside the watch box. If you go back and look at case studies, it happens really often. And it's usually up in a really cold environment that no one would normally think of going. Mike Umscheid and Jon Davies have caught several similar rogue cells that produced very nice tornadoes during similar events.
 
Currently sitting in Commerce, TX waiting on the skies to clear up a little more. We finally found internet access at Texas A&M-Commerce after going through about 5 smaller towns with no luck. Will have to be patient as initiation looks to be a little later.

Darin

JB: Its spring break! :lol:
 
I'm liking where you're at, Darin! Nice tower going up to the WSW, Optimum convergence, good backing......Sit tight, my friend.

And remember....you should be in class!! ;)
 
I am currently in Atoka, OK, skies are clearing up very good this way.

Might continue south on US-69 or head east on OK-3
 
anyone else get faked out by the false echos to the SW of the dryline in OK? According to the NWS OUN they are large fires.

Saw these and wondered what was up ... they were between the dryline and cold front ... the cells east of OKC are looking quite nice on radar now ... quite chase-able at this point. Have fun Darin -
 
ya the cell that is on hwy 270 just south of I-40 near seminole is looking really nice, looks to have a good anvil on radar and a core with a 50-55dBz reflectivity. Lance is on that cell and says he sees a nice RFB.
 
Tornado warning has been issued for Seminole county in Oklahoma. Storm is looking very sharp on radar. Starting to form a hook on hte backend.
 
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