3/19/11 FCST: KS, NE, CO, TX

[Andrew Stoller]

Saturday might be a decent day before the day event. Depending on how good the moisture return is, it might be really good and almost looks similar to 3-28-07. The GFS has been very consistent now (even though it's still 6 days out) with this big trough in the west and subsequent surface low somewhere along the front range of the Rockies in eastern CO. The directional and bulk shear looks awesome. The only fly in the ointment will be moisture and CIN, both of which have slightly waffled on each GFS run.

 

[Matthew Piechota]

I think your thinking of 3/28/07? Probably just a typo lol. Anyways the GFS has been waffling back and forth on quality of moisture return into the TX PH. western KS/eastern CO and western NE. As andrew said the shear is there with strong southerly 850's and even slightly backed in some areas under strong southwesterly mid-level flow. The 0z GFS had a nice, but narrow instability axis up and down the dryline but the 12z is less bullish in that department. Were still 6 days away so alot can and probably will change with future runs and as we get into the NAM's range in the next few days. I think this day does hold some potential from where we stand right now and upper 50 dew points could get the job done.

 

[Kelly Sugden]

Like Matt said, 12Z GFS backed off on moisture return until 06z after the LLJ gets cranking. Soundings/plan views look more like isentropic lift/isolated thunder across western Kansas. 12Z GFS better resembles 00Z ECMWF so moisture could be the main issue. Shear looks good. I would hedge towards Sunday still although it would be nice to have some lightning in SW Kansas Saturday.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

The TX panhandle is looking pretty decent on the last few GFS runs and the NAM. Good shear and instability with 55+ degree dewpoints (per the GFS). The cap however is very stout.

 

[Steven Howell]

I agree, that cap looks very stout, however, given the surface temps in the high 70s to 80s and decent moisture, there could be a narrow window of a few hours along the CAPE axis ahead of the dryline bulge, could be just the ticket for some "panhandle magic" It might be worth the 6 to 8 hour drive...

The TX panhandle is looking pretty decent on the last few GFS runs and the NAM. Good shear and instability with 55+ degree dewpoints (per the GFS). The cap however is very stout.

 

[RMacDonald]

Just pushed out my severe weather threat area for today across the KS/OK regions. Seeing a decent instability across the Central to Eastern part of Oklahoma, running from and Oklahoma City to Okmulgee line. SmartModel plus latest RUC2 picking this up with LI's of around -6, surface base CAPE's running right around 1,000 (J/kg) also seeing the moisture tongue riding right up into that area. Another areas is across the TX Panhandle to SW Oklahoma, not seeing as much positive dynamics in that areas, but can't rule some isolated severe storms across this area. City specific forecasts have also been uploaded. Any thoughts on the severe weather today across the area.