3/11/07 FCST: OK / TX / AR

[Jim Bishop]

Yes, I also think (like Bill) that Sunday is the day to watch, although it's quite iffy at this point. It all depends upon how progressive that shortwave really is. The GFS is the least progressive, the furthest south, and actually shows the low cutting off for a day, while the European is more progressive and further north than the GFS. The NAM seems to be in more support of the European, or vice versa. So right now it looks like GFS solution is actually wrong at this point! (Not progressive enough with the shortwave and too far south)

I looked into a little too much detail! The point is Sunday looks like the day to watch. But certainly nothing is evident yet, and it remains to be seen if anything worth chasing will actually occur in Texas or Oklahoma on Sunday.

MOD: Split from 3/10 FCST thread.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I noticed this potential as well across EC/SE OK and WC/SW AR. 0-3km CAPE values of 160-200 j/kg will be nosing into this region. Dewpoints in the
55-60+ F range may be present as shown by the NAM. Moderate shear profiles and decent deep layer shear may lead to a few supercells with isolated tornadoes. Helicity should be very high along the I40 corridor. LCLs will be very low so any storm that develops will be surfaced based. Could be interesting if this all pans out right.

 

[Reed Timmer]

Somewhere between San Angelo and Del Rio could be very interesting tomorrow. This looks like a classic Mexico/Deep South TX supercell setup. The only thing I don't about that area tomorrow is a slight weakness in the flow at 700 mb that develops by 00z in the WRF. If 700 mb flow can remain above 25-30 kts tomorrow, tornadoes could definitely happen with the 25-30 kt SSE 900 mb flow. Although I haven't yet checked forecast hodographs to see if the storm motion will be favorable.

Another caveat could be the cold front moving rapidly south and undercutting any supercells in deep S TX. It seems whenever a deep convective cluster is present in northwest TX, the front surges south much more rapidly than the models indicate.

Does anyone else favor this area for tomorrow?? I'll probably be chasing it...it might be time to even cross the border!