3/11/06 NOW: Upper Midwest to TX/LA

[Scott Lincoln]

Where is everyone getting the information to begin rating the tornadoes tonight? Its nighttime, there are no surveys being conducted of the damage. Remember that the amount of damage caused by a tornado has nothing to do with how good the rotation is on radar. I suppose if someone is watching a webcast where they can see homes that are completely leveled, and they know that the homes in that area are newer, well constructed homes, then maybe we can start to guess on possible ratings.

 

[Tony Lyza]

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES.

This thing is heading right for Mt. Vernon, a large population center. This spells utter catastrophie.

 

[HAltschule]

The storm further to the east is rain wrapped and without a doubt is producing a large wedge tornado. This one will make the news headlines across the country tomorrow. It is not often that I see such a large area of extreme SRV Shear. My thinking for Evansville, IN and Western IN remain the same as in my post 1/2 hour ago. This thing has a lot of juice to use upstream still and the damage and injury reports just keep coming in.

EDIT/Correction: Immediately to the north of Evansville in the Northern Suburbs. Undoubtedly, the immediate Mount Vernon, IL area is seeing 1 or more tornadoes right now as there are 3 couplets on radar.

 

[Carla Bisby]

The rotation in the monster storm in IL is now over Mt Vernon. Man, I hope there's not still something on the ground. Mt Vernon is a good sized town. New tor warning for area south of Evansville IL area.

 

[Carla Bisby]

Originally posted by Scott Lincoln
Where is everyone getting the information to begin rating the tornadoes tonight? Its nighttime, there are no surveys being conducted of the damage. Remember that the amount of damage caused by a tornado has nothing to do with how good the rotation is on radar. I suppose if someone is watching a webcast where they can see homes that are completely leveled, and they know that the homes in that area are newer, well constructed homes, then maybe we can start to guess on possible ratings.

I'm getting it from STL news programs who are covering it almost non-stop. Also they have reporters on site at some of the locations.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I agree with Scott... Early reports are always sketchy, and folks have a tendency to exaggerate damage (using "destroyed" to characterize damage that meteorologists certainly wouldn't call "destroyed" for damage ratings). In addition, it's night, so that also seems to make things look worse (and more scary/uneasy). It's way too early to say much about ratings, so let's try to stay away from that.

That Jefferson county cell is amazing. It seems as though everything went KABOOM a few hours ago, after a relatively tornado-free afternoon with non-tornadic supercells being the rule. As the sun set, winds backed as Tds continued to increase on southerly flow. Again, I'm not sure I buy the SPC/RUC mesoanalysis of there being not much more than 250 j/kg SBCAPE anywhere in the vacinity of ongoing supercells in nw AR and MO/IL. Sure, strong rotation is likely yielding intense vert pert press grads, but I still can't imagine we only have 250 j/kg CAPE in most areas.

EDIT: "deadly tornadoes" noted with Mount Vernon supercell now.

 

[James Siler]

Trying to get on the storm that is moving NE of Clarksville. It looks like it might be trying something but I can't see cause of the tree's.

 

[Chad Ringley]

Latest tidbit from a new TOR warning out of PAH suggests that the long-lived supercell that traversed MO and produced several tornadoes near the MO/IL border has done some bad deeds:


* AT 1108 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADIC STORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DEADLY TORNADOS
14 MILES WEST OF DAHLGREN...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTH OF MOUNT
VERNON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

I read that as confirmed fatalities...maybe it's just an artifact of the warning message? I bet its not though

 

[HAltschule]

I have to agree. It is premature to guess at an F rating on these unless a damage survey is completed by a trained professional. And TV Media is far from that definition. They just want to sensationlize the story.,

 

[Alex Lamers]

The other part of that said it downed 154 power poles in some town. Incredible. G2G is still real impressive. Could this be a tri-state tornado? It is in a similar area at a similar time of year but the 1925 tornado was during the day for the most part.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Alex Lamers
The other part of that said it downed 154 power poles in some town. Incredible. G2G is still real impressive. Could this be a tri-state tornado? It is in a similar area at a similar time of year but the 1925 tornado was during the day for the most part.

Tilt 1 SRV did look like a possible mesocyclone recycling / cycling may have occured near 1050pm. It looks like the meso moved northward a bit a weakened, while the next scan showed a stronger couplet to the south/southeast of the previous position. So, I'm not entirely sure yet that that this has been a single tornado/meso.

That Jefferson county supercell is one of the more impressive storms that I can remember... It started in nw AR early in the afternoon, and tracked through n AR and s MO before going bonkers as it neared IL. It looks like a storm formed ahead of it and the two 'combined'/collided in Perry co IL.

 

[Ronnie Bradley]

Originally posted by James Siler
Trying to get on the storm that is moving NE of Clarksville. It looks like it might be trying something but I can't see cause of the tree's.

It still looks good on radar with a 65+dBZ core, probably dropping some good sized rocks. Be careful.
*update* it is gaining a bit of a pendant echo + a V notch.

 

[Brandon Clement]

* AT 1108 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADIC STORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DEADLY TORNADOS
14 MILES WEST OF DAHLGREN...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTH OF MOUNT
VERNON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

Notice it says history of deadly tornados. I hope that it is not a clue on what we will be hearing tomorrow.

This is from Hamilton county Illinois

oops repeat, missed the last post on page 8.

 

[Pat Lawrence]

Originally posted by Alex Lamers
The other part of that said it downed 154 power poles in some town. Incredible. G2G is still real impressive. Could this be a tri-state tornado? It is in a similar area at a similar time of year but the 1925 tornado was during the day for the most part.

I noticed that path myself, Alex...I hope NOT! Of course one could theorize that something in the terrain makes this area favorable for such events??

Pat

 

[Pat Lawrence]

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeff Snyder)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Alex Lamers

The other part of that said it downed 154 power poles in some town. Incredible. G2G is still real impressive. Could this be a tri-state tornado? It is in a similar area at a similar time of year but the 1925 tornado was during the day for the most part.

Tilt 1 SRV did look like a possible mesocyclone recycling / cycling may have occured near 1050pm. It looks like the meso moved northward a bit a weakened, while the next scan showed a stronger couplet to the south/southeast of the previous position. So, I'm not entirely sure yet that that this has been a single tornado/meso.

That Jefferson county supercell is one of the more impressive storms that I can remember... It started in nw AR early in the afternoon, and tracked through n AR and s MO before going bonkers as it neared IL. It looks like a storm formed ahead of it and the two 'combined'/collided in Perry co IL.[/b]

Thanks for the great analysis, Jeff! I had noticed something similar, but you put the hammer to the nail!

Pat