3/11/06 NOW: Upper Midwest to TX/LA

[Scott Lincoln]

Looks like some storms, likely elevated, are going up in south central Wisconsin. Northernmost cell at this time has marginally severe hail signatures.

@12:15pm - Next 30 minutes
Small core of hail west of Lowell will move northeast and pass between Beaver Dam and Juneau.
Small core of hail south of Reeseville will move northest and approach Clyman.

 

[brody_clifton]

12:45 PM CST: Supercell now going up just north of Dustin in east-central OK,. Cell is already showing good signs of developing a low level meso, with 30kts or so of gtg shear per 0.5 deg velocity from OKC NWS radar.

Another cell developing 20 miles to its southwest but atm not showing great structure per radar.

Edited 12:48PM CST: As of Next radar update, both cells near Dustin
are developing supercells, southern cell with a reflectivity hook on its east side, both with developing low level mesos now. This looks to be an active afternoon and evening shaping up...

 

[Scott Lincoln]

Large hail moving into northern Macintosh County, OK...

Hail failing, or soon to be falling, ahead of the main area of precipitation will brush Hoffman to the east as it heads towards Hitchita at around 50mph.

Storm has a definite WER, but there does not appear to be a great deal of low level rotation.

 

[Shane Adams]

Surface enviroment looks like crap where those storms are...flow is all southwest to west, and dewpoints are slowly being squeezed down. I'm glad I stayed home, because these storms are moving at around 60mph, and they're only beginning to be influenced by the 100+kt max coming through. The Haskell, OK profiler is insane. If I were chasing I'd pay more attention to the area of N Texas east of I-35. Better moisture, backed winds, and the Jayton profiler shows much more doable speeds at 500mb. I'd guess the only chaseable show along the dryline would be along the Red River later in the day, with storms at least moving somewhat slower than the crack storms in NE Ok....which are probably moving into Arkansas as I write this (haven't looked at the radar in a minute or so). The area along the Red River from Ardmore-Hugo looks tempting, but the roads are iffy and you'll be in the trees before you can say "grab the chainsaw."

Seems weird to have a dryline setup for so many days so far east. Almost makes you think it was following the moisture wall which typically sets up in the TX/Ok panhandles this time of year. But I guess we had a drought didn't we? I can see a trend for 06...

 

[Alex Lamers]

Brief bout of some strong to severe storms over here in SE Wisconsin. Looks like it flared up along the lake enhanced convergence zone in the strong warm advection. MUCAPE only around 500 j/kg but still managed to put out some 0.75 to 1 inch hail. 0.75 inch hail reported in Lake Geneva which caused 2 accidents.

Ready for round 2 in S WI / N IL as new SWOMCD up for possible tornado watch in the next 90 minutes.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

IMO, west-central Illinois is the place to be right now. Cu field is rapidly deepening, and instability is quickly on the rise with clear skies allowing temps to soar into the 70s already with td's on the mid 60s. Winds are strongly backed out of the SE at 15-20 kts in all locations. I think you're best shot at getting tornadic storms is going to be in an area from Quincy, IL to Decatur, IL south to around St. Louis, MO. The air further back into Missouri just seems a little too dry. Dew points in this area are only reaching the middle 50s right now, giving temp/td spreads of 20+ degrees.

 

[Alex Lamers]

New cell popping 15 miles south-southeast of Iowa City, Iowa attm. Went up to near 40 dbZ in about 2 scans in the 2000-5000' layer. 18z DVN sounding showed that the inversion was not far from eroding with some more heating/forcing and that appears to be the case as the boundary layer is more mixed now 71/54 per the ob. Actually the SARS (not the disease) analysis shows 60% of loose matches to the DVN sounding historically produced tornadoes in the area. Cloud layer shear of 80-90 knots over the area and MUCAPE now rocketing close to 1000-1100 j/kg spells some highly organized sups to me. SPC has the new MD for tornado watch possibility...would expect that to be out soon.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

Convection also firing near Nevada, MO at this time....

Those returns in IA almost resemble what you would see from a grassfire or something... not really behaving like a convective cell.

 

[Joel Wright]

I'm at home in NW IL. Just went out and took a quick snapshot looking east at the deepening cumulus field. These clouds are rolling nicely. 74/56 here....

 

[Matthew Havin]

Convection increasing across SW MO.

SPC has added in the 2 PM outlook that tornado threat will be greatest between 0Z to 6Z for central and eastern MO including the Saint Louis metro area.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

Storm east of Muskogee, OK beginning to gain lower level rotation... moving to the northeast into Cherokee county.

2:10 pm - Storm may be cycling back into a hail producer once again, estimates of hail over 1" along Muskogee/Cherokee county line. Some new lightning strikes clumped in that area also.

2:13pm - Hail of up to 1.5" now heading towards Tahlequah in Cherokee county.
No warning ATTM.

2:22pm - Hail estimated to be up to 2.25" to pass south of Tahlequa. Rapid increase in lightning over the last 10 minutes. Rotation at the lowest tilt also appears to be increasing and becoming more defined.

 

[rdale]

Seeing those numbers too (using RUC 18Z sounding for AE input) with large blob of 65-69dbZ echoes forming around 16000ft. Now getting 75dbZ with big TBSS at 3.9* slice with MEHS of 1.84 inches.

NW/SE view at http://radioweather.us/kinx_20060311_2012.png

 

[Scott Lincoln]

In SW Missouri, i would say the storm near Warsaw in Benton county would be the one to watch at this time. A small cell, but it may be picking up some rotation signatures on radar already.

2:37pm - storm northeast of Warsaw is about to go severe. Hail to around 1" now estimated. Looks like a small TBSS is also present.

2:41pm - storm continues to have indications of large hail, POSH now at 100%. Moving out of Benton county towards Stover, MO. Also indications of increased rotation. Cell on Henry/St Clair county line also has 100% POSH, size up to about 1". Continue with no warnings.

 

[Marcus Opitz]

GR level 3 showing TVS in the aforementioned area in benton co/mcdonald co. mo...this one showing a developing hook too. That is hill country my friends....

 

[Matthew Havin]

New Tornado Watch including STL Metro:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0063.html

LFCs per SPC Mesoanalysis are down to 1200m and falling at 2 PM.