3/11/06 NOW: Upper Midwest to TX/LA

[Joel Wright]

I can now see through the thick haze the top of the Monmouth IL cell on the southern horizon. Getting ready to head out and roll down I-74. Just waiting for my buddy to get here.

The cells in west-central IL seem to be cutting off the moisture further north. The impressive cloud field that was in far NW IL has collapsed as the cells to the south gained strength.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Ok, looks like I'm right and that cell between the Benton and Carrol county line finally got a T warning....a while ago.

 

[Chris Allington]

Well things are beginning to get interesting with a potential tornadic storm expected to move right into and just south of Branson. Core on this thing is reaching 65 dbz and a decent couplet can be seen in the middle levels of the storm, but not quite as organized at the surface, you can also see a hook forming on it. Initiation is occuring from around Joplin to east of Tulsa and south to the NW of McAlester along the dryline. Farther to the NE a broken line of cells including a few rather unorganized supercells continues to form in IL and MO, with a split occuring near Quincy and a new cell just tor warned on in Pike county MO. This thing has a fairly decent couplet with around 60-70 kts of gate to gate occuring at this time.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

There's probably some very large hail with the cell in extreme southern MO... TBSS / Hail spikes have been on several tilts for the past few scans, with >70dbz reflectivities extending above 14k feet. At this time, the hail core aloft is falling a little per the presence of negative / inbound velocities in the hail spike on the bvel products. LCLs can't be too low given the ~20F dewpoint depressions in the area.

For tornado potential south of I44, I like extreme southern OK and northenr TX, where winds have backed to the SSE/SE and Tds are in upper 50s and low 60s (so, again, LCLs aren't low). 18z sounding from FWD showed a cap in place, but continued moistening and heating may allow for initiation. 850mb is essentailly light and variable along and west of I35, so storms will have to work east a bit to see any decent low-level shear. REgardless, strong 0-6km shear and 1500-2500 j/kg sbCAPE will support supercells.

 

[HAltschule]

Looks like a great area to be is just to the southeast of a Tulsa, OK to Joplin, MO line. 3 Supercells looks like they are attaining persitent low level rotation. I would expect Tornado warning to be fired in the next few minutes. These are the storms that could have the long lived tornadoes as they are exhibiting excellent rotation and organization.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Looks like Forsyth under the gun.

EDIT: Now indicating TVS as well.

 

[brody_clifton]

Supercell west of Rushville, IL now has a well defined hook echo, deep meso visible on tilts 1-3, and a well defined BWER from looking at BR tilts 1 thru 4 - heavy echoes directly above low level doppler indicated rotation. Cell has remained consistent on radar for the past 20 minutes.

 

[Jason McIntosh]

Thanks for the NOWCAST Jeff. I'm just waiting for this storm to head this way. I can see the storm top pretty well now to the SW. Will stay at the cpu location for a bit yet in W Lee County. May lose out on the sunlight by 6:30, but this storm has maintained it's intensity for the past 2 hours. Large hail reports and some weak rotation.

 

[HAltschule]

Branson and Forsyth now have confirmed damage with what looks to be the mother supercell of the day. Tornado warning is in effect for the same storm. This isolated storm is by itself and should be a sweet one to chase if anyone is out there. I just am not sure of the terrain in that area.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

GR2AE algorithms putting hail size in storm near Branson anywhere from 2.75" to 3.1"

Areas that look to have been hit the hardest....
Northern parts of Branson, Rockaway Beach, Merriam Woods
now heading towards Taneyville

Looks like the rotation went right over Branson. Curious to hear of any reports from there.

From the Warning text for Douglas County, MO:
TANEY COUNTY STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A LARGE WALL CLOUD AT 550 PM.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

Chasers on the near border of Oklahoma and Missouri should definitely be keeping their eyes on the big storm just east of Grove, OK moving towards Anderson, MO.
Hail to 2.75" and I'm seeing some decent rotation.

 

[Alex Lamers]

TANEY COUNTY STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A LARGE WALL CLOUD AT 550 PM.

Sounds like somethin is goin on down there!

 

[Bill Tabor]

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
There's probably some very large hail with the cell in extreme southern MO... TBSS / Hail spikes have been on several tilts for the past few scans, with >70dbz reflectivities extending above 14k feet. At this time, the hail core aloft is falling a little per the presence of negative / inbound velocities in the hail spike on the bvel products. LCLs can't be too low given the ~20F dewpoint depressions in the area.

Yeah I been watching that hail spike. You're talking about the light blue precip extending to the SSW on base reflectivity right?

 

[Bill Tabor]

Originally posted by HAltschule
Branson and Forsyth now have confirmed damage with what looks to be the mother supercell of the day. Tornado warning is in effect for the same storm. This isolated storm is by itself and should be a sweet one to chase if anyone is out there. I just am not sure of the terrain in that area.

Whoa baby! That's the one with the TVS and hail spike. The combo could be big damage in area.

 

[Alex Lamers]

New warning for Knox County. For awhile there looked like things could get pretty bleak for you Jason up there in Lee Co IL. Looks like the storm has cycled back into an intense phase. Also storms headed in your general direction have increased in number and intensity so lookin good. Interested to see which one you will pick.